MNF Packers @ Broncos 10/28

spanishshark

spanishshark

Youngest guy on the forum
4-2-1 MNF YTD
28-21-2 YTD ATS (57%)

I know you never bet against Brett on MNF and I also know you never bet against Denver @ Denver on MNF. So what to do? I think the wrong team is favored here. Green Bay should be the 3 point favorites, not Denver. I just have to go with the team with the more experienced QB IMO. Denver is not firing on all cylinders right now especially the offense. thank God they have Brandon Stokley since Javon Walker is out. Its not that Green Bay is so good, its that Denver sucks right now. Im seeing a Green Bay 21 to 17 type score here which also favors the Under for anyone interested.

Green Bay +3
 
:cheers:sportfanatic.....Thanks, same to you bud :cheers:


flounder.....My friend. Thanks for visiting. Hey, thats my hunch on the total. Dont hate me if it goes over..hahaha I honestly think it stays Under although I'm not playing it. I hate playing my totals. I seem to jinx myself but I've been kicking myself lately for not. :hang:

chancedog......:cheers:

Steed.............I'm glad you're on them too :cheers:

Silverbull.........The ML is a good idea. :cheers:
 
GB is calling passing plays at a 2:1 rate over running plays this season. Denver has a great pass defense with one of the best CB duos in the NFL. GB lacks a running game, meaning Denver LBs can drop back in coverage, meaning Favre will have a tough time finding open WRs. GB has a good DL, but I think Denver finds a way to score more points than GB. I lean towards the under in this game, but it is by no means a strong lean; the weather should be a key factor in the o/u.

Good health tonight, shark, but I will be on the other side.
:cheers:
 


No problem, Sharkie. I hold your opinion in very high regard. I can wait for a better play. C'mon, NBA!!
 
Blue Chip.......Brett will burn them with short slant passes all night long. Just enough to make first downs. Nothing deep. Good health to you sir :cheers:
 
Blue_Chip said:
GB is calling passing plays at a 2:1 rate over running plays this season. Denver has a great pass defense with one of the best CB duos in the NFL. GB lacks a running game, meaning Denver LBs can drop back in coverage, meaning Favre will have a tough time finding open WRs. GB has a good DL, but I think Denver finds a way to score more points than GB. I lean towards the under in this game, but it is by no means a strong lean; the weather should be a key factor in the o/u.

Good health tonight, shark, but I will be on the other side.
:cheers:
Click to expand...

After looking this game initially, my assumption was the same about the Denver pass D. They are rated number 1 in yards against, but are they really that good? Well, the numbers say no and here is why.

Here's a table of the QBs and their stats against the Broncos. I haven't rechecked it for errors just yet, but I think it is ok.

<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 665px; height: 322px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 67pt;" width="90"> <col style="width: 37pt;" width="50"> <col style="width: 34pt;" width="46"> <col style="width: 32pt;" width="43"> <col style="width: 39pt;" width="52"> <col style="width: 38pt;" width="51"> <col style="width: 43pt;" width="58"> <col style="width: 27pt;" width="36"> <col style="width: 38pt;" width="51"> <tbody><tr style="height: 13.8pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 13.8pt; width: 67pt;" height="18" width="90"> <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Looks like a formula is still in that table, let me try again:

<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 355pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="477"><col style="width: 67pt;" width="90"> <col style="width: 37pt;" width="50"> <col style="width: 34pt;" width="46"> <col style="width: 32pt;" width="43"> <col style="width: 39pt;" width="52"> <col style="width: 38pt;" width="51"> <col style="width: 43pt;" width="58"> <col style="width: 27pt;" width="36"> <col style="width: 38pt;" width="51"> <tbody><tr style="height: 13.8pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl36" style="height: 13.8pt; width: 67pt;" height="18" width="90"> <table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 384pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="515"><col style="width: 96pt;" width="128"> <col style="width: 37pt;" width="50"> <col style="width: 34pt;" width="46"> <col style="width: 32pt;" width="43"> <col style="width: 39pt;" width="52"> <col style="width: 38pt;" width="51"> <col style="width: 43pt;" width="58"> <col style="width: 27pt;" width="36"> <col style="width: 38pt;" width="51"> <tbody><tr style="height: 13.8pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl36" style="height: 13.8pt; width: 96pt;" height="18" width="128">QB</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 37pt;" width="50">Yards</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 34pt;" width="46">TDs</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 32pt;" width="43">Int</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 39pt;" width="52">Comp</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 38pt;" width="51">Att</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 43pt;" width="58">YPC</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 27pt;" width="36">%</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 38pt;" width="51">Rating</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl38" style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18">Roethlisberger</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-top: medium none;" x:num="">290</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-top: medium none;" x:num="">4</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-top: medium none;" x:num="">2</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-top: medium none;" x:num="">24</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-top: medium none;" x:num="">35</td> <td class="xl27" style="border-top: medium none;" x:num="12.083333333333334">12.1</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-top: medium none;" x:num="">69</td> <td class="xl28" style="border-top: medium none;" x:num="">108</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl39" style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18">Rivers</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">270</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">2</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">0</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">13</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">18</td> <td class="xl30" x:num="20.76923076923077">20.8</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">72</td> <td class="xl31" x:num="">151</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl39" style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18">Manning</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">193</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">3</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">0</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">20</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">27</td> <td class="xl30" x:num="9.65">9.7</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">74</td> <td class="xl31" x:num="">131</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl39" style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18">Garrard</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">154</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">1</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">0</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">14</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">20</td> <td class="xl30" x:num="">11.0</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">70</td> <td class="xl31" x:num="">109</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl39" style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18">McCown</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">73</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">1</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">3</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">8</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">16</td> <td class="xl30" x:num="9.125">9.1</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">50</td> <td class="xl31" x:num="">44</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.8pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl40" style="height: 13.8pt;" height="18">Losman</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">97</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">0</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">1</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">14</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">21</td> <td class="xl30" x:num="6.9285714285714288">6.9</td> <td class="xl29" x:num="">67</td> <td class="xl31" x:num="">57</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.8pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl37" style="height: 13.8pt;" height="18">Totals</td> <td class="xl32" x:num="">1077</td> <td class="xl32" x:num="">11</td> <td class="xl32" x:num="">6</td> <td class="xl32" x:num="">93</td> <td class="xl32" x:num="">137</td> <td class="xl33" x:num="11.580645161290322">11.6</td> <td class="xl35" x:num="0.67883211678832112">0.68</td> <td class="xl34" x:num="106.61496350364962">106.61</td> </tr> </tbody></table></td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 37pt;" width="50">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 34pt;" width="46">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 32pt;" width="43">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 39pt;" width="52">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 38pt;" width="51">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 43pt;" width="58">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 27pt;" width="36">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 38pt;" width="51">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl38" style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18">
</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-top: medium none;" x:num="">
</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-top: medium none;" x:num="">
</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-top: medium none;" x:num="">
</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-top: medium none;" x:num="">
</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-top: medium none;" x:num="">
</td> <td class="xl27" style="border-top: medium none;" x:num="12.083333333333334">
</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-top: medium none;" x:num="">
</td> <td class="xl28" style="border-top: medium none;" x:num="">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table></td> <td class="xl29" style="width: 37pt;" width="50">
</td> <td class="xl29" style="width: 34pt;" width="46">
</td> <td class="xl29" style="width: 32pt;" width="43">
</td> <td class="xl29" style="width: 39pt;" width="52">
</td> <td class="xl29" style="width: 38pt;" width="51">
</td> <td class="xl29" style="width: 43pt;" width="58">
</td> <td class="xl29" style="width: 27pt;" width="36">
</td> <td class="xl30" style="width: 38pt;" width="51">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
As you can see, the numbers are greatly skewed by Losman and McCown's stats; these are two guys that play for terrible pass offenses and don't even start anymore. They account for 4 of the 6 ints, and the two lowest yardage games.

You'll see here that 4 of the 6 QBs that have faced the Broncos have had QB ratings of over 100. Only 3 teams have overall QB ratings of over 100: NE, Indy, and Pitt. 2 of those teams are included here, which does work against my argument somewhat.

In any case, if you combine the efforts of these individual QB efforts you would find that their 68% pass completion percentage and 106 QB rating would rank only behind New England in efficiency. If you take McCown and Losman's performances out the QB rating jumps up to 132, right behind NE's 133.

Both Bly and Bailey are hurting a bit, I still haven't seen official news yet on whether Bailey will go. My only point here is that Denver's "number 1 ranked pass D" if very, very deceiving.

It's up to the individual bettor to decide whether Favre falls in line with Losman and McCown, the other 4 QBs, or somewhere in between.

I'll be taking the Pack and the points for a number of reasons. This analysis is just a small part.
 
Last edited:
Nice table, Herm. I see your point. Also, note that Roethisberger went to the air often as the Steelers fell behind in that game 21-7.
 
It certainly puts things into perspective a bit. Of course, one might think that the Denver rush D would be the beneficiary of a breakdown like that; however they are the worst run D in YPG and 2nd worst in YPC. In their defense, they have faced some really solid run offenses, but I still think the breakdown points to GB. Of course, you never know when a team with talent is going to decide to turn it around and that may be the case this week with Denver. It certainly happened last week when they upset PIT.
 
Big Herm said:
After looking this game initially, my assumption was the same about the Denver pass D. They are rated number 1 in yards against, but are they really that good? Well, the numbers say no and here is why.

Here's a table of the QBs and their stats against the Broncos. I haven't rechecked it for errors just yet, but I think it is ok.

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 665px; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; HEIGHT: 322px" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0 x:str=""><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 67pt" width=90><COL style="WIDTH: 37pt" width=50><COL style="WIDTH: 34pt" width=46><COL style="WIDTH: 32pt" width=43><COL style="WIDTH: 39pt" width=52><COL style="WIDTH: 38pt" width=51><COL style="WIDTH: 43pt" width=58><COL style="WIDTH: 27pt" width=36><COL style="WIDTH: 38pt" width=51><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.8pt" height=18><TD class=xl24 style="WIDTH: 67pt; HEIGHT: 13.8pt" width=90 height=18><HR style="COLOR: rgb(209,209,225)" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Looks like a formula is still in that table, let me try again:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 355pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=477 border=0 x:str=""><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 67pt" width=90><COL style="WIDTH: 37pt" width=50><COL style="WIDTH: 34pt" width=46><COL style="WIDTH: 32pt" width=43><COL style="WIDTH: 39pt" width=52><COL style="WIDTH: 38pt" width=51><COL style="WIDTH: 43pt" width=58><COL style="WIDTH: 27pt" width=36><COL style="WIDTH: 38pt" width=51><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.8pt" height=18><TD class=xl36 style="WIDTH: 67pt; HEIGHT: 13.8pt" width=90 height=18><TABLE style="WIDTH: 384pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=515 border=0 x:str=""><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 96pt" width=128><COL style="WIDTH: 37pt" width=50><COL style="WIDTH: 34pt" width=46><COL style="WIDTH: 32pt" width=43><COL style="WIDTH: 39pt" width=52><COL style="WIDTH: 38pt" width=51><COL style="WIDTH: 43pt" width=58><COL style="WIDTH: 27pt" width=36><COL style="WIDTH: 38pt" width=51><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.8pt" height=18><TD class=xl36 style="WIDTH: 96pt; HEIGHT: 13.8pt" width=128 height=18>QB</TD><TD class=xl24 style="WIDTH: 37pt" width=50>Yards</TD><TD class=xl24 style="WIDTH: 34pt" width=46>TDs</TD><TD class=xl24 style="WIDTH: 32pt" width=43>Int</TD><TD class=xl24 style="WIDTH: 39pt" width=52>Comp</TD><TD class=xl24 style="WIDTH: 38pt" width=51>Att</TD><TD class=xl24 style="WIDTH: 43pt" width=58>YPC</TD><TD class=xl24 style="WIDTH: 27pt" width=36>%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="WIDTH: 38pt" width=51>Rating</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.2pt" height=18><TD class=xl38 style="HEIGHT: 13.2pt" height=18>Roethlisberger</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none" x:num="">290</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none" x:num="">4</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none" x:num="">2</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none" x:num="">24</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none" x:num="">35</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none" x:num="12.083333333333334">12.1</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none" x:num="">69</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none" x:num="">108</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.2pt" height=18><TD class=xl39 style="HEIGHT: 13.2pt" height=18>Rivers</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">270</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">2</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">0</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">13</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">18</TD><TD class=xl30 x:num="20.76923076923077">20.8</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">72</TD><TD class=xl31 x:num="">151</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.2pt" height=18><TD class=xl39 style="HEIGHT: 13.2pt" height=18>Manning</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">193</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">3</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">0</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">20</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">27</TD><TD class=xl30 x:num="9.65">9.7</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">74</TD><TD class=xl31 x:num="">131</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.2pt" height=18><TD class=xl39 style="HEIGHT: 13.2pt" height=18>Garrard</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">154</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">1</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">0</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">14</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">20</TD><TD class=xl30 x:num="">11.0</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">70</TD><TD class=xl31 x:num="">109</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.2pt" height=18><TD class=xl39 style="HEIGHT: 13.2pt" height=18>McCown</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">73</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">1</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">3</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">8</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">16</TD><TD class=xl30 x:num="9.125">9.1</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">50</TD><TD class=xl31 x:num="">44</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.8pt" height=18><TD class=xl40 style="HEIGHT: 13.8pt" height=18>Losman</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">97</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">0</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">1</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">14</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">21</TD><TD class=xl30 x:num="6.9285714285714288">6.9</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="">67</TD><TD class=xl31 x:num="">57</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.8pt" height=18><TD class=xl37 style="HEIGHT: 13.8pt" height=18>Totals</TD><TD class=xl32 x:num="">1077</TD><TD class=xl32 x:num="">11</TD><TD class=xl32 x:num="">6</TD><TD class=xl32 x:num="">93</TD><TD class=xl32 x:num="">137</TD><TD class=xl33 x:num="11.580645161290322">11.6</TD><TD class=xl35 x:num="0.67883211678832112">0.68</TD><TD class=xl34 x:num="106.61496350364962">106.61</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=xl24 style="WIDTH: 37pt" width=50>

</TD><TD class=xl24 style="WIDTH: 34pt" width=46>

</TD><TD class=xl24 style="WIDTH: 32pt" width=43>

</TD><TD class=xl24 style="WIDTH: 39pt" width=52>

</TD><TD class=xl24 style="WIDTH: 38pt" width=51>

</TD><TD class=xl24 style="WIDTH: 43pt" width=58>

</TD><TD class=xl24 style="WIDTH: 27pt" width=36>

</TD><TD class=xl25 style="WIDTH: 38pt" width=51>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.2pt" height=18><TD class=xl38 style="HEIGHT: 13.2pt" height=18>

</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none" x:num="">

</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none" x:num="">

</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none" x:num="">

</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none" x:num="">

</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none" x:num="">

</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none" x:num="12.083333333333334">

</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none" x:num="">

</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none" x:num="">

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD class=xl29 style="WIDTH: 37pt" width=50>

</TD><TD class=xl29 style="WIDTH: 34pt" width=46>

</TD><TD class=xl29 style="WIDTH: 32pt" width=43>

</TD><TD class=xl29 style="WIDTH: 39pt" width=52>

</TD><TD class=xl29 style="WIDTH: 38pt" width=51>

</TD><TD class=xl29 style="WIDTH: 43pt" width=58>

</TD><TD class=xl29 style="WIDTH: 27pt" width=36>

</TD><TD class=xl30 style="WIDTH: 38pt" width=51>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
As you can see, the numbers are greatly skewed by Losman and McCown's stats; these are two guys that play for terrible pass offenses and don't even start anymore. They account for 4 of the 6 ints, and the two lowest yardage games.

You'll see here that 4 of the 6 QBs that have faced the Broncos have had QB ratings of over 100. Only 3 teams have overall QB ratings of over 100: NE, Indy, and Pitt. 2 of those teams are included here, which does work against my argument somewhat.

In any case, if you combine the efforts of these individual QB efforts you would find that their 68% pass completion percentage and 106 QB rating would rank only behind New England in efficiency. If you take McCown and Losman's performances out the QB rating jumps up to 132, right behind NE's 133.

Both Bly and Bailey are hurting a bit, I still haven't seen official news yet on whether Bailey will go. My only point here is that Denver's "number 1 ranked pass D" if very, very deceiving.

It's up to the individual bettor to decide whether Favre falls in line with Losman and McCown, the other 4 QBs, or somewhere in between.

I'll be taking the Pack and the points for a number of reasons. This analysis is just a small part.
Click to expand...

very good post..
 
Also, the poor rush D can contribute to the higher pass D rating. If teams have lots of success running the ball, they will pass less often. Teams will stick to what works unless you fix it. That's why my Vikes D is so skewed. The run D is near the top but the pass D is atrocious. It's the path of least resistance.
 
Ok, so I went to dive a bit deeper into the Denver's passing defense woes and here is what I found: most of the damage against their passing D has come via the TE and RB position. I did a full table with every player that has caught a pass against the Broncos this year and here is the breakdown:

<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 214pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="286"><col style="width: 97pt;" width="129"> <col style="width: 35pt;" width="47"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 34pt;" width="46"> <tbody><tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td style="height: 13.2pt; width: 97pt;" height="18" width="129">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 35pt;" x:str="REC " width="47">REC </td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" x:str="YDS " width="64">YDS </td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 34pt;" x:str="TD " width="46">TD </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18">TOTAL</td> <td x:num="" align="right">93</td> <td x:num="" align="right">1077</td> <td x:num="" align="right">11</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18">WR</td> <td x:num="" x:fmla="=B2-(B4+B5)" align="right">44</td> <td x:num="" x:fmla="=C2-(C4+C5)" align="right">519</td> <td x:num="" x:fmla="=D2-(D4+D5)" align="right">5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18">TE</td> <td x:num="" align="right">32</td> <td x:num="" align="right">396</td> <td x:num="" align="right">6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18">RB</td> <td x:num="" align="right">17</td> <td x:num="" align="right">162</td> <td x:num="" align="right">0</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18">
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18">WR</td> <td x:num="" align="right">44</td> <td x:num="" align="right">519</td> <td x:num="" align="right">5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18">TE+RB</td> <td x:num="" x:fmla="=B5+B4" align="right">49</td> <td x:num="" x:fmla="=C5+C4" align="right">558</td> <td x:num="" x:fmla="=D5+D4" align="right">6</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Here is the breakdown of Favre's targets this year...
<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 342pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="457"><col style="width: 76pt;" width="102"> <col style="width: 25pt;" width="33"> <col style="width: 35pt;" width="47"> <col style="width: 37pt;" width="49"> <col style="width: 34pt;" width="45"> <col style="width: 37pt;" width="49"> <col style="width: 31pt;" span="2" width="42"> <col style="width: 36pt;" width="48"> <tbody><tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl25" id="_x0000_s2049" x:autofilter="all" x:autofilterrange="$A$1:$I$12" style="height: 13.2pt; width: 76pt;" height="18" width="102">Player</td> <td class="xl25" id="_x0000_s2050" x:autofilter="all" style="width: 25pt;" width="33">G</td> <td class="xl25" id="_x0000_s2051" x:autofilter="all" style="width: 35pt;" width="47">GS</td> <td class="xl25" id="_x0000_s2052" x:autofilter="all" style="width: 37pt;" width="49">Rec</td> <td class="xl25" id="_x0000_s2053" x:autofilter="all" style="width: 34pt;" width="45">Yds</td> <td class="xl25" id="_x0000_s2054" x:autofilter="all" style="width: 37pt;" width="49">Avg</td> <td class="xl25" id="_x0000_s2055" x:autofilter="all" style="width: 31pt;" width="42">Lg</td> <td class="xl25" id="_x0000_s2056" x:autofilter="all" style="width: 31pt;" width="42">TD</td> <td class="xl25" id="_x0000_s2057" x:autofilter="all" style="width: 36pt;" width="48">POS</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl26" style="height: 13.2pt; width: 76pt;" height="18" width="102">Donald Driver</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 25pt;" x:num="" width="33">6</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 35pt;" x:num="" width="47">6</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">36</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 34pt;" x:num="" width="45">412</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">11.4</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">46</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">2</td> <td class="xl24">WR</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl26" style="height: 13.2pt; width: 76pt;" height="18" width="102">James Jones</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 25pt;" x:num="" width="33">6</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 35pt;" x:num="" width="47">3</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">23</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 34pt;" x:num="" width="45">293</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">12.7</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">46</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">1</td> <td class="xl24">WR</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl26" style="height: 13.2pt; width: 76pt;" height="18" width="102">Donald Lee</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 25pt;" x:num="" width="33">6</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 35pt;" x:num="" width="47">5</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">22</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 34pt;" x:num="" width="45">270</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">12.3</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">60</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">1</td> <td class="xl24">TE</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl26" style="height: 13.2pt; width: 76pt;" height="18" width="102">Greg Jennings</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 25pt;" x:num="" width="33">4</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 35pt;" x:num="" width="47">4</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">14</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 34pt;" x:num="" width="45">228</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">16.3</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">57</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">3</td> <td class="xl24">WR</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 26.4pt;" height="35"> <td class="xl26" style="height: 26.4pt; width: 76pt;" height="35" width="102">Vernand Morency</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 25pt;" x:num="" width="33">3</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 35pt;" x:num="" width="47">0</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">15</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 34pt;" x:num="" width="45">104</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">6.9</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">18</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">0</td> <td class="xl24">RB</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl26" style="height: 13.2pt; width: 76pt;" height="18" width="102">Ruvell Martin</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 25pt;" x:num="" width="33">6</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 35pt;" x:num="" width="47">1</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">6</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 34pt;" x:num="" width="45">102</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">17</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">36</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">0</td> <td class="xl24">WR</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl26" style="height: 13.2pt; width: 76pt;" height="18" width="102">Bubba Franks</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 25pt;" x:num="" width="33">6</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 35pt;" x:num="" width="47">0</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">14</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 34pt;" x:num="" width="45">90</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">6.4</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">12</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">2</td> <td class="xl24">TE</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 26.4pt;" height="35"> <td class="xl26" style="height: 26.4pt; width: 76pt;" height="35" width="102">Brandon Jackson</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 25pt;" x:num="" width="33">3</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 35pt;" x:num="" width="47">3</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">11</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 34pt;" x:num="" width="45">81</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">7.4</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">16</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">0</td> <td class="xl24">RB</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 26.4pt;" height="35"> <td class="xl26" style="height: 26.4pt; width: 76pt;" height="35" width="102">DeShawn Wynn</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 25pt;" x:num="" width="33">6</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 35pt;" x:num="" width="47">3</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">9</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 34pt;" x:num="" width="45">73</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">8.1</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">18</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">0</td> <td class="xl24">RB</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl26" style="height: 13.2pt; width: 76pt;" height="18" width="102">Korey Hall</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 25pt;" x:num="" width="33">6</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 35pt;" x:num="" width="47">5</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">5</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 34pt;" x:num="" width="45">36</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">7.2</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">10</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">0</td> <td class="xl24">RB</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl26" style="height: 13.2pt; width: 76pt;" height="18" width="102">Ryan Grant</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 25pt;" x:num="" width="33">5</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 35pt;" x:num="" width="47">0</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">5</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 34pt;" x:num="" width="45">26</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 37pt;" x:num="" width="49">5.2</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">21</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 31pt;" x:num="" width="42">0</td> <td class="xl24">RB</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18">
</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18">
</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl24">RB</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=SUM(D12,D11,D10,D9,D6)">45</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=SUM(E12,E11,E10,E9,E6)">320</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=SUM(F12,F11,F10,F9,F6)">34.8</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=SUM(G12,G11,G10,G9,G6)">83</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=SUM(H12,H11,H10,H9,H6)">0</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18">
</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl24">TE</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=D4+D8">36</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=E4+E8">360</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=F4+F8">18.7</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=G4+G8">72</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=H4+H8">3</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18">
</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl24">WR</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=SUM(D7,D5,D3,D2)">79</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=SUM(E7,E5,E3,E2)">1035</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=SUM(F7,F5,F3,F2)">57.4</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=SUM(G7,G5,G3,G2)">185</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=SUM(H7,H5,H3,H2)">6</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 13.2pt;" height="18">
</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl24">RB+TE</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=SUM(D15,D14)">81</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=SUM(E15,E14)">680</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=SUM(F15,F14)">53.5</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=SUM(G15,G14)">155</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" x:fmla="=SUM(H15,H14)">3</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Favre spreads the ball around pretty well. You can see that Morency has caught 5 balls per game on average since coming back from injury and the TEs and RBs are definitely in the mix here.
 
GL Shark... On the Pack also. Looks like we are in the minority around here and a few other places.. Also like that:cheers:
 
spanishshark said:
Big Herm......Interesting stats on his TE/WR plays. Good job :cheers:
Click to expand...

Thanks sir and the rest of you. Hope it serves you well. Also of note is the Broncos 3 wins have been by 1, 3, and 3. IMO, everything is pointing at the Pack with the 3 points. I was thinking about the ML but have shied away.
 
Blue_Chip said:
GB is calling passing plays at a 2:1 rate over running plays this season. Denver has a great pass defense with one of the best CB duos in the NFL. GB lacks a running game, meaning Denver LBs can drop back in coverage, meaning Favre will have a tough time finding open WRs. GB has a good DL, but I think Denver finds a way to score more points than GB. I lean towards the under in this game, but it is by no means a strong lean; the weather should be a key factor in the o/u.

Good health tonight, shark, but I will be on the other side.
:cheers:
Click to expand...

did you see Roethlisberger tear apart the so-called vaunted Den secondary? Pgh scored on every second half possession last Sun nite - Bly and Bailey are solid but they arent stopping anyone.......Their pass defense looks good because everyone and their mother are running on them - lowest rated run def in the NFL..........So of course the pass def numbers look good but only on paper...........
 
spanishshark said:
4-2-1 MNF YTD
28-21-2 YTD ATS (57%)

I know you never bet against Brett on MNF and I also know you never bet against Denver @ Denver on MNF. So what to do? I think the wrong team is favored here. Green Bay should be the 3 point favorites, not Denver. I just have to go with the team with the more experienced QB IMO. Denver is not firing on all cylinders right now especially the offense. thank God they have Brandon Stokley since Javon Walker is out. Its not that Green Bay is so good, its that Denver sucks right now. Im seeing a Green Bay 21 to 17 type score here which also favors the Under for anyone interested.

Green Bay +3
Click to expand...

Good afternoon,Shark

Total's line had change from 42-to 44' now -Will your UNDER still stand ? Thanks

:cheers:
 
JoJo said:
Good afternoon,Shark

Total's line had change from 42-to 44' now -Will your UNDER still stand ? Thanks

:cheers:
Click to expand...

Yepper. And the weather will not be a factor. I was hoping it got colder too...haha. Green Bay will run the ball contrary to popular belief. Should stay under. I see 43.5 at 5dimes.
 
on em too, if GB were fav by 3 I wouldnt complain but there would prob be too much DEN money at home off last weeks win, I suppose thats why the line is there
 
:7_5_142::7_5_142:
:36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6:

:36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6:

:36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6:

Shark :23_30_107::23_32_9:


Many thanks,
 
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