MNF Discussion

Gorgolon Lives

Gorgolon Lives

The Reverend of CTG
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[TD="class: col_time bdevtt, align: center"]08:30 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: col_rotno bdevtt, align: center"]477[/TD]
[TD="class: col_teamname bdevtt"]Seattle Seahawks[/TD]
[TD="class: info bdevtt"][/TD]
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[TD="class: hdcp bdevtt, align: center"]-7[/TD]
[TD="class: odds bdevtt displayOdds, align: center"]-120[/TD]
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[TD="class: odds bdevtt moneylineodds displayOdds, align: center"]-350[/TD]
[TD="class: info bdevtt"][/TD]
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[TD="class: mktdesc bdevtt"]Ov[/TD]
[TD="class: hdcp bdevtt, align: center"]45½[/TD]
[TD="class: odds bdevtt displayOdds, align: center"]-110[/TD]
[TD="class: info bdevtt"][/TD]
[TD="class: checkboxes bdevtt2"]<input type="checkbox" class="oddsselection" cfg="{'type':'h2h','selId':'G|Football|NFL|0|POSTUP|.|279532128|E|LTTTOV|Seattle Seahawks','selObj':{'gt':'G','str':'POSTUP','prf':'.','mkt':'E','selTyp':'LTTTOV','tmId':'Seattle Seahawks'},'a':-110,'d':1.909,'h':27,'dh':'27','aorg':-110,'dorg':1.909,'horg':27,'dhorg':'27','av':0,'dv':0,'rno':477}" value="G|Football|NFL|0|POSTUP|.|279532128|E|LTTTOV|Seattle Seahawks" style="margin: 0px;">[/TD]
[TD="class: mktdesc bdevtt"]Ov[/TD]
[TD="class: smlhdcp bdevtt, align: center"]27[/TD]
[TD="class: odds bdevtt displayOdds, align: center"]-110[/TD]
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[TD="class: mktdesc bdevtt"]Un[/TD]
[TD="class: smlhdcp bdevtt, align: center"]27[/TD]
[TD="class: odds bdevtt displayOdds, align: center"]-120[/TD]
[TD="class: info bdevtt"][/TD]
[TD="class: addMktIcn bdevtt"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: otherline"]
[TD="class: col_rotno bdevtt, align: center"]478[/TD]
[TD="class: col_teamname bdevtt"]Washington Redskins[/TD]
[TD="class: info bdevtt"][/TD]
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[TD="class: hdcp bdevtt, align: center"]+7[/TD]
[TD="class: odds bdevtt displayOdds, align: center"]+100[/TD]
[TD="class: info bdevtt"][/TD]
[TD="class: checkboxes bdevtt2"]<input type="checkbox" class="oddsselection" cfg="{'type':'h2h','selId':'G|Football|NFL|0|POSTUP|.|279532128|M|MLAW|Washington Redskins','selObj':{'gt':'G','str':'POSTUP','prf':'.','mkt':'M','selTyp':'MLAW','tmId':'Washington Redskins'},'a':290,'d':3.9,'h':0,'dh':'','aorg':290,'dorg':3.9,'horg':0,'dhorg':'','av':0,'dv':0,'rno':478}" value="G|Football|NFL|0|POSTUP|.|279532128|M|MLAW|Washington Redskins" style="margin: 0px;">[/TD]
[TD="class: odds bdevtt moneylineodds displayOdds, align: center"]+290[/TD]
[TD="class: info bdevtt"][/TD]
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[TD="class: mktdesc bdevtt"]Un[/TD]
[TD="class: hdcp bdevtt, align: center"]45½[/TD]
[TD="class: odds bdevtt displayOdds, align: center"]-110[/TD]
[TD="class: info bdevtt"][/TD]
[TD="class: checkboxes bdevtt2"]<input type="checkbox" class="oddsselection" cfg="{'type':'h2h','selId':'G|Football|NFL|0|POSTUP|.|279532128|E|RTTTOV|Washington Redskins','selObj':{'gt':'G','str':'POSTUP','prf':'.','mkt':'E','selTyp':'RTTTOV','tmId':'Washington Redskins'},'a':-105,'d':1.8,'h':20,'dh':'20','aorg':-105,'dorg':1.8,'horg':20,'dhorg':'20','av':0,'dv':0,'rno':478}" value="G|Football|NFL|0|POSTUP|.|279532128|E|RTTTOV|Washington Redskins" style="margin: 0px;">[/TD]
[TD="class: mktdesc bdevtt"]Ov[/TD]
[TD="class: smlhdcp bdevtt, align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD="class: odds bdevtt displayOdds, align: center"]-105[/TD]
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[TD="class: mktdesc bdevtt"]Un[/TD]
[TD="class: smlhdcp bdevtt, align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD="class: odds bdevtt displayOdds, align: center"]-125

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Tito said:
Gorg, why do you like the Skins? Is it more the # you are getting with them?
Click to expand...

Yea just playing the # with a 7.5 home dog. I'm still drinking the Cousins kool aid. I don't think he is as bad as Thursday night's game against the Giants. If he is, Seahawks will dominate this game. Wilson just 9-8 su on the road in his career. Seahawks different beast on the road. Redskins coming off an embarrassing prime-time loss, doubt they lay 2 straight eggs on national tv.
 
Gorgolon Lives said:
The Seahawks have won eight straight Monday night games since 2005, including a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS under Carroll.
Click to expand...

since 2005 is a weird number, I'd be more inclined at this stat if it wasn't based on 9 years.
Were those games on the road or in Seattle?
Seattle at home is just like an automatic cover if it was just a TD spread
 
Gorgolon Lives said:
Yea just playing the # with a 7.5 home dog. I'm still drinking the Cousins kool aid. I don't think he is as bad as Thursday night's game against the Giants. If he is, Seahawks will dominate this game. Wilson just 9-8 su on the road in his career. Seahawks different beast on the road. Redskins coming off an embarrassing prime-time loss, doubt they lay 2 straight eggs on national tv.
Click to expand...
the key to cousins is if he is pressured he doesn't handle it so well - that was how the giants were able to gain success against them last week
 
A wild football weekend full of huge college upsets and stunning NFL comebacks concludes with a Monday night sweat for a handful of bettors at Nevada's largest sports book.
There are two live 12-team parlays that, at 3,000-to-1 odds, could turn a pair of $25 wagers into $75,000 paydays tonight at the MGM. It's all up to Washington, a 7.5-point home underdog to the Seattle Seahawks on "Monday Night Football" (8:30 p.m., ESPN).
"We've also got four eight-teamers live as well," MGM Vice President of Race and Sports Jay Rood told ESPN. "All of them need the Redskins. We've got some bullets to dodge."
The eight-teamers range from $40-$70 and pay 190-to-1, Rood said. The MGM sports book handles the largest percentage of betting action in the Nevada market and has certainly faced larger liabilities than tonight's, but it's still a fun ending to an awesome week of football.
 
Gorgolon Lives said:
Yea just playing the # with a 7.5 home dog. I'm still drinking the Cousins kool aid. I don't think he is as bad as Thursday night's game against the Giants. If he is, Seahawks will dominate this game. Wilson just 9-8 su on the road in his career. Seahawks different beast on the road. Redskins coming off an embarrassing prime-time loss, doubt they lay 2 straight eggs on national tv.
Click to expand...


Agree that Seattle is a bit diff on the road, and Cousins is not as bad as what we saw. Redskins need to fix that D though, past two weeks they have gotten gouged. I'm just playing the over myself.
 
Was thinking the same thing about hedging…too much money not to. Even if you have to fly back out and borrow money, you have to!!!
 
Tito said:
Was thinking the same thing about hedging…too much money not to. Even if you have to fly back out and borrow money, you have to!!!
Click to expand...

Even if you did it for less and wanted to ride out some of it...

i don't know what the taxes would be..and how much they take right there....
 
I want to know how West Coast teams have performed flying to the East Coast to play on Sunday and Monday nights.
 
I wasn't asking hypothetically or implying anything. I seriously want to know how West Coast teams have performed flying to the East Coast to play on Sunday and Monday nights. I'm pretty sure they've dominated.
 
Line opened up at -8.5 Sea from what I saw. I locked in last night on Washington at +7. Both teams are well rested and should be in for a battle tonight. Everyone remembers what Cousins did against the giants but forgets how well this team played against Philly, and how well Cousins did against them.

The stats are crazy for the overs on the Nationally televised games and this one should be no different. I think the over is an easy play and was locked in at 45. I am also on Wash +7, which I am not as confident on, but a home dog with 10 days rest and a bounce back is in store. If Cousins does turn the ball over well then it is a wash for me as the over will hit. If he doesn't well then I may be in store for a good night.

I am also taking a look at props tonight for Cousins, and Niles Paul as I think they have the chance to go over the listed props, as one bounces back from an awful game while the other returns from an injury which is unlikely to knock him out early.

Good luck tonight however you play it. Carol the Cheater goes down tonight.
 
YoungGun11 said:
Line opened up at -8.5 Sea from what I saw. I locked in last night on Washington at +7. Both teams are well rested and should be in for a battle tonight. Everyone remembers what Cousins did against the giants but forgets how well this team played against Philly, and how well Cousins did against them.

The stats are crazy for the overs on the Nationally televised games and this one should be no different. I think the over is an easy play and was locked in at 45. I am also on Wash +7, which I am not as confident on, but a home dog with 10 days rest and a bounce back is in store. If Cousins does turn the ball over well then it is a wash for me as the over will hit. If he doesn't well then I may be in store for a good night.

I am also taking a look at props tonight for Cousins, and Niles Paul as I think they have the chance to go over the listed props, as one bounces back from an awful game while the other returns from an injury which is unlikely to knock him out early.

Good luck tonight however you play it. Carol the Cheater goes down tonight.
Click to expand...
that's because the Giants were able to apply pressure where as Philly was unable to..he had 48 attempts against the iggles and 33 against the giants. Don't think Philly's defense is anything special either, look what Austin Davis did yesterday and once the iggles went up they also played prevent

don't know where to go with this game, but looks like it's a stay away...although a notch down on the road the seattle d, this is the best defense that cousins has had to face thus far. I can see the dline getting pressure on that o-line and I can see seattle just running out clock and pounding with skittles.
 
austinhous said:
I wasn't asking hypothetically or implying anything. I seriously want to know how West Coast teams have performed flying to the East Coast to play on Sunday and Monday nights. I'm pretty sure they've dominated.
Click to expand...

understood, was also adding if someone had it in a database to break it down further..... didnt mean any sarcasm..
 
It looks like there was some resistance at +7.5. I'm seeing a juiced 7 now on Seattle. I'm guessing this will go up later tonight once folks are out of work.
 
Im a skins fan. We get anally raped in every home primetime game. I don't know the stats, anyone want to look it up for me?
 
The Redskins have been dreadful on Mondays since 2008, losing seven of eight times, including six losses at FedEx Field. Last season, Washington lost twice on Monday night football, allowing 60 points in defeats to Philadelphia and San Francisco. The only victory for Washington in this span came against the Giants in 2012, edging New York, 17-16 as three-point underdogs as part of a seven-game winning streak en route to the NFC East title.
 
Obviously first time poster at this site, im just curious.. Why do so many bettors pay attention to, or even care about what happened in 2008 or 2009 or 2010 or anything that far back? In the NFL teams change on almost a weekly basis with injuries and game plan adjustments, even more so from year to year so why would anyone be interested in trends dating back 3,4,5+ years? It just has never made sense to me, yet I see people do it all the time. Every week is uniquely different in professional football so I cannot imagine what information people are using to their advantage from years ago. If someone could rationalize this I would appreciate it, thanks.
 
CoachE said:
Obviously first time poster at this site, im just curious.. Why do so many bettors pay attention to, or even care about what happened in 2008 or 2009 or 2010 or anything that far back? In the NFL teams change on almost a weekly basis with injuries and game plan adjustments, even more so from year to year so why would anyone be interested in trends dating back 3,4,5+ years? It just has never made sense to me, yet I see people do it all the time. Every week is uniquely different in professional football so I cannot imagine what information people are using to their advantage from years ago. If someone could rationalize this I would appreciate it, thanks.
Click to expand...
Just a question for you, how do you think Vegas comes up with hundreds and hundreds of lines each week and pretty accurate at that? You don't think they use past history data in their mathematical models to come up with chances of probability?
 
spanishshark said:
Just a question for you, how do you think Vegas comes up with hundreds and hundreds of lines each week and pretty accurate at that? You don't think they use past history data in their mathematical models to come up with chances of probability?
Click to expand...

Good point. I am not by any means saying any one way is right or wrong, was just interested in what people thought. But certainly coming up with a line and the end result are two different things and vary on a lot of factors that have nothing to do with team performances. But to factor in how the Seahawks or Redskins performed 5 years ago when picking a side tonight or in any game just seems kinda silly to me. They had different schemes, coaches and players 6 years ago so how does that factor into predicting a winner tonight? I guess that is my bigger question. Thanks again for the response.
 
I wouldn't put any stock in a trend I couldn't verify for myself. And even then I would need to look at peripheral stats and other "what if" situational trends to make a decision. Some trends are brilliant, and involve a lot of situational handicapping, but just as often I see trends that are either short-sighted, seemingly biased, incorrect, and/or arbitrary - especially ones that come from touts or handicapping websites. You just have to do your own work and figure out what you want to bet. Relying on someone else to do the work for you and blindly following what they say is not going to work for you.
 
Watching Brandon Lang video makes me never ever want to follow him. I would rather follow Helen Keller around the Grand Canyon then listen to that douche Brandon Lang
 
Gorgolon Lives said:
Lang says "buy the hook"
Click to expand...

Hook? What is that? Oh, I see now. The hook is "gambling lingo" for a one-half point. Brandon Lang wants me to pay extra in order to reduce the spread to 6.5. I didn't even know you could do that! It makes sense though, because a touchdown is worth seven points. So now the Seahawks only have to win by a touchdown to win the bet! This Brandon Lang man is familiar with the lingo and he is confident. I should listen to what he says. I just wish I had more dimes to invest.
 
austinhous said:
Hook? What is that? Oh, I see now. The hook is "gambling lingo" for a one-half point. Brandon Lang wants me to pay extra in order to reduce the spread to 6.5. I didn't even know you could do that! It makes sense though, because a touchdown is worth seven points. So now the Seahawks only have to win by a touchdown to win the bet! This Brandon Lang man is familiar with the lingo and he is confident. I should listen to what he says. I just wish I had more dimes to invest.
Click to expand...

:hypnosis:
 
What wins......

NFL underdogs after losing by 30+ points are 123-79 for 61% since 1990. Redskins +7

or

Road favorites off a bye are 48-15 for 71% in the last 13 seasons. Seahawks -7
-Browns a push yesterday and Bengals a loss.
 
So far this season the Thursday night loser has won the next week straight up....

2 of those ( Bucs vs Steelers and Steelers vs Panthers) were underdogs...
 
Last edited:
For what it's worth, the skins are 11-4 against the hawks all-time, and have won the last 6. The Seapigs haven't beat them since 1998 at home, when they were still in the AFC West. That being said, I'm still laying the 7. Good luck, everyone...
 
Seattle's wins were all post season, that stat of the last 6 for WAS were regular season games

Stat manipulation at its best
 
Betonline went to 6.5 wow. My local still has a cheap 7. Taking it for 3u. Go Capt Kirk!

NFL [478] WASHINGTON REDSKINS +7-105
 
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