MNF Discussion: Saints vs Redskins

Redskins have been a first-half team, while the Saints have tended to start slowly. So I lean to a Skins 1H bet.

I could see the Redskins come out and establish the run. Saints run D ranks good but they haven't faced any threatening rush attacks (Giants played from behind, never established Barkley). Skins should move the sticks with short passing game against poor pass D. Plenty of weapons against that banged-up secondary. Lots of TOP for a TOP-oriented team. Saints also strong TOP. Skins pass D I think is pretty good, plus advantage in the interior trenches. TOP and limit (somewhat) Brees will encourage the under.
 
saints are gonna come out throwing; they have made it quite clear that getting Brees his record is as important as winning tonight. I think they want him to get the record early in the game so then they can focus on actually winning. because of that, I lean first half over
 
Took -5.5 at -115 on BOL. There’s enough relative info out on the Colts Cards and Packers to show hat the Skins are a fairly average team. I don’t expect them to be able to keep up with the Saints offense tonight.

General vibe I’ve gotten is a lot of people thinking they’re smart with their Skins leans, getting the cheaper line now doesn’t hurt either.
 
saints are gonna come out throwing; they have made it quite clear that getting Brees his record is as important as winning tonight. I think they want him to get the record early in the game so then they can focus on actually winning. because of that, I lean first half over

Yeah I agree with this. When a franchise player is reaching a major career milestone, my experience is that the team wants it to happen early and then get that distraction out of the way to focus on winning the game.
 
Skins TT over for me (1/2u at 23' -105, 1/2u at 24 +118). Skins played Saints last season in DC (lost by 3) so familiar, off bye, have Alex Smith now and decent weapons to attack Saints vulnerable pass defense (9.3 opp YPA). Agree that Skins will try to play TOP game, but at home, hard to imagine Saints not being able to turn this into a more open game. In two games against decent offenses this season, Saints have allowed 48 (TB) and 37 (ATL), while two bad offenses (NYG and CLE) each scored 18. Skins are closer to Bucs/Falcons than Giants/Browns, feel pretty good that they hang 24+ tonight.
 
Skins TT over for me (1/2u at 23' -105, 1/2u at 24 +118). Skins played Saints last season in DC (lost by 3) so familiar, off bye, have Alex Smith now and decent weapons to attack Saints vulnerable pass defense (9.3 opp YPA). Agree that Skins will try to play TOP game, but at home, hard to imagine Saints not being able to turn this into a more open game. In two games against decent offenses this season, Saints have allowed 48 (TB) and 37 (ATL), while two bad offenses (NYG and CLE) each scored 18. Skins are closer to Bucs/Falcons than Giants/Browns, feel pretty good that they hang 24+ tonight.

Not to mention, the Giants had two good offensive drives squashed bc of phantom penalty calls. Pretty confident they would've scored in the 20's other wise...
 
Johnny is that based on 2018? Sample size from wash playing gb, ari, and Ind. and NO playing tb, nyg, cle, and Atl?
 
I actually played 1st half under 25.5. Don’t see any reason saints would need to change anything for brees to throw the minimal amount of yards he needs for this meaningless record?? I think more importantly is Ingram coming back should have saints drives churning out more 1st downs than normal before scoring. Def think skins attempt to play keep away early and eat up clock.. im sure it probably turn into a video game at some point as most saints games do, just hoping that won’t happen till the second half when skins might be forced to open up.
 
Don't forget that the 'skins are coming in off of an early bye with some key players that were banged up, and they gotta have some kinda bad taste in their mouths from the last time they were here last year.

Up 31-16 with 6 minutes to go, and lost in OT...

:enragedsmile:
 
Well damn, 1st half under was looking so promising thru the 1st qrtr. Unfortunately the video game broke out faster than I anticipated! lol.. I swear I can’t even watch saints games cause I get so irritated how the refs continually keep their drives alive w key flags on every 3rd down, shit border line criminal! Oh well, wasn’t much more than a degenerate play.. good call and congrats over backers!!
 
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