My thoughts on tonight:
Gitz vs. Lloveras. Don't have much of an opinion. Gritz is a boring/grinding type figher and I've barely seen Lloveras
Sanchez vs. Herrera. Tough one. Sanchez is out of Jacksons and is a solid fighter. Herrera is a sick athlete. Going to look at this one a little closer but probably no bet.
LaFlare vs. Pierce. This will probably be a boring fight. Pierce is a guy that probably beat Koscheck and Hendricks. I would favor him, but he hasn't fought in over 2 years and is 35. Just too big of a question mark.
Gonzaga vs. Erokhin. Erokhin is a guy that looks to knock peoples head off. Gonzaga is a BJJ ace, but looks to get in exciting fights. If it goes to ground, Gonzaga should tap him easily, but I think they stand and bang where either can get the KO. I have the under.
Erosa vs. Wrzosek. Altough these were two of the most successful on TUF, I'm not impressed with either. Erosa will jump around the cage throwing single shots. He might outpoint the polish fighter, but he over extends himself leaving an opening. I lean toward Wrzosek but no bet at this point.
Kawajiri vs. Knight. Muscle headed Japanese fighter that is 37 facing BJJ guy on short notice. A full camp, I would probably bet Knight and still may. I always look to fade guys once they get in the mid 30s. But, I am worried about short camp and huge step up in competition.
Lauzon vs. Dunham. JLau is one of my favorites, but is insanely inconsistent. Always looking for finish which puts him at risk. Dunham has fought everyone. He will be the better wrestler and probably look to grind out a decision on JLau. Not sure that Lauzon can get the sub.
Barboza vs. Ferguson. Love Ferguson here. Barboza is a good fighter and has some athletic traits, but he makes critical errors and cant do that vs. Tony. Barboza struggled vs. Felder and Ferguson is similar, but a step up. Tony has been on a roll and I expect that to continue, he should KO Barboza.
Hall vs. Lobov. Hall is one of my favorites so I'm pulling for him. I bought his triangle videos years ago. He is not just a heelhook guy, he used to be thought of a triangle guy. Then he focused on taking peoples back. Then he turned into 50/50 specialist. He has to get the fight to the ground to win. This has a chance to be an ugly fight. Hall is going to use kicks to try to keep Lobov off of him and pick his shots. Lobov is either going to clip him early or get frustrated. People forget how terrible Lobov was (.500 record and lost in fight to get on show)...but he got 3 straight KOs on terrible fighters. Hall lost to Rogers, who I thought was the best on the show and has very good wrestling. Rogers also fought smart and avoided the ground. Lobov will try the same, but if it goes to the ground at all, he's done. Lean Hall, no bet at this point.
Edgar vs. Mendes. Edgar can win, but it will have to be by picking Mendes apart on feet and tiring him out. Mendes is the stronger fighter with better wrestling. Mendes can end the fight at any moment. I don't have big concerns with Mendes gas tack like others; Mendes fought Aldo for 5 rounds and looked good. I think the last fight was because he was out hunting and took on short notice. I think Mendes wins, but close fight. Probably see how the night goes and if odds change. I like both fighters so tough for me to fade either one.
