Mls cup future help!!!

[braves]

Back in July I placed a future on the Galaxy to win the cup at +700.

I fully expect them to win this game at home, in fact I think they may win going away. This isn't a ton of money I'd be losing if I don't hedge, but don't want to walk away empty handed. I'm going to the game, so there really isn't the option of being able to live bet this. Cell service was shit when I was at the game a couple of weeks ago.

New England is +210 to win the cup. Should I hedge, and if so how should I tackle it? Thanks in advance
[TABLE="class: lines"]
<tbody>[TR="class: linesSubHeader"]
[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>New England at LA Galaxy - USA Major League Soccer</small>[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesRow"]
[TD]Sun 12/7[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]351 New England (USA-MLS)[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_0" name="altS1_0" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+1 -123</option><option value="1">pk +310</option><option value="2">+½,+1 +106</option><option value="3">pk,+½ +189</option></select>[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +452 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altL1_0" name="altL1_0" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">o2½ -122</option><option value="1">o3 +149</option><option value="2">o2½,3 +111</option></select> [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesRowMid"]
[TD]3:00PM[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]352 LA Galaxy (USA-MLS)[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_0" name="altS2_0" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-1 +108</option><option value="1">pk -370</option><option value="2">-½,-1 -121</option><option value="3">pk,-½ -219</option></select> [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -153 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altL2_0" name="altL2_0" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">u2½ +107</option><option value="1">u3 -164</option><option value="2">u2½,3 -126</option></select> [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesRowBot"]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]353 Draw[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M3_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +265 [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesSubHeader"]
[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>New England at LA Galaxy - USA Major League Soccer Cup - Winner</small>[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesCommentsRow"]
[TD="colspan: 8"]<cite>extratime and shootouts included</cite>[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesRow"]
[TD]Sun 12/7[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]354 New England wins MLS Cup[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_4" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +210 [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesRowBot"]
[TD]3:00PM[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]355 LA Galaxy wins MLS Cup[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_4" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -250 [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

​

 

[braves]

This is the Galaxy stats at home this year

14 Wins, 4 Draws, and 1 Loss. They scored 50 goals and gave up 14.

I'm making the case for myself to let it ride

 

[KJ]

only thing I can see is the +.25 but don't know why you'd do that if you think LA win in reg

 

[guaranteeed]

maybe the +1 for a bit?

that way you can guaranteed a profit, but also win both ways (galaxy win in ET), or cut down risk but not cut in to your profit (unless they win by 2)

 

[cxbbum]

agree with Teed, I'd play the +1 and with a chance to win both....gl Braves

 

[Schrute]

maybe the +1 for a bit?

that way you can guaranteed a profit, but also win both ways (galaxy win in ET), or cut down risk but not cut in to your profit (unless they win by 2)

Agreed

 

[Pyppurs]

would agree with teed

7/18 (38.9%) Finals have gone to extras
3/7 (42.9%) to go to extras have gone to penalties

5/18 (27.8%) have lost the final by 2+ goals

Implied win probability for +1 at -123 odds is 51.2%

 

[braves]

thanks for the insight guys, and thank you pyppurs for pulling those stats

I'm still kinda leaning towards just letting it ride, but we will see

 

[hugh613]

:claphands:

 

[Pyppurs]

:cheers3:

 

[guaranteeed]

nice hit braves

 

[braves]

Thanks guys I probably should have played the +1 as it was plus money right before kickoff but i had to take a piss so bad and my phone wouldn't work in the bathroom so I couldn't get it in on time. New England was a lot better than I expected so I feel somewhat fortunate hitting this

It wasn't the best game, but the atmosphere was cool.. All the big soccer guys in the USA were there walking around. We ended up moving right behind the benches before the ot, right next to Robert Kraft"s box, surprisingly no klinnsman at the game( or at least I didn't see him)

Good to see landon go out a champion