MLB World Series Game #1

[Wiretowire]

YTD +273

Last post

MLB 2-0 = +10

Series:St Louis to win series +26/-20 units

I do believe that St Louis will win this series but I am taking this bet with the express purpose to hedge it. I believe that St Louis will win game #1 with Wainwright and if they do I will immediately turn around and bet Boston to win the series as they will probably be a +130 or +140 dog after losing the first game. If it doesn't work out that way and Boston wins the first I will still wait until St Louis takes the lead in the series and then bet the other way hedging Boston. And what happens if St Louis never takes the lead and I can never hedge? Well then, I will lose this bet.

Why do I think St Louis will win or at least take the lead in the series? Pitching. I really like Wainwright and Wacha to win and I only really like Bucholz to win for Boston. I don't like Lester, Lackey or Peavy in that order of liking to not liking. I also don't like Kelley and Lynn also in order of liking to not liking. So that means two guys for St Louis and one guy for Boston I think are capable of dominating and that takes me to St Louis 2-1 or a series final of 4 games to 2.

I also like all of these games to go over the total. Now do I think they all will? Probably not but I think you will make money on the over as opposed to the under as the best bet on a game by game basis. Why? DH helps St Louis a ton. Starting pitching looks good on paper but each and every one of these two teams starters are more than capable of allowing 5 runs. The total won't ever be set over 8 and that's even if these two are both scoring touchdowns and going for two instead of kicking the extra points each game. That leads me to my next pick of.......

St Louis/Boston over 7 -110 (5 units)

That's it. And you are probably asking right about now why I didn't take St Louis +110 to win game#1. It is a good bet but I have that first game covered with the hedge if St Louis walks away with the first game. If St Louis loses the first game it will make my hedge bet tougher and actually, by the math, make my series hedge pretty worthless as I would be losing a unit on the hedge and another on the side in the first game.

GL

 

[cashflowmatters]

Wire: I have Boston +175 to win it all....have any ideas on what I should do if anything??

 

[Wiretowire]

Root for Boston?

Seriously, there is nothing to do. I am assuming you only risked 1 unit to get Boston at +175 so there is no great exposure on your part anyway so just sit back and relax. You have a great bet with the home team at +175. Boston would have to take the first two games to let you get +275 on St Louis and if they do why hedge with 2 games in towards your +175? Boston winning only the first game just gets you to around St Louis +200. I don't think that is worth a hedge either. Your bet looks good to me, if it is just one unit, so just sit it out. GL

 

[mrob]

gl Wire, great logic on the bets

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks Mrob. GL

 

[Wiretowire]

I took a Monday night football game and won +10 units but since I posted it in the NFL forum I won't count it here on the year to date total. It really shouldn't matter anyway but I'll just let it drop into cyberspace uncounted.

I can see where a running year total might be something a casual viewer may find interesting but in the grand scheme of things a record alone shouldn't be the deciding factor on whether you should look/follow one poster or the other. Look at what every poster in the forum has picked and what everyone has to say and then make up your own mind on what to bet. That is the value of these forums. GL

 

[chancedog]

If STL wins game 1 you may have a tough time placing a hedge bet with Wacca starting game 2

 

[Wiretowire]

Chance, I would think that if St Louis wins #1 I should get more than the +130 needed to make the series hedge bet work on Boston. If I get +130 or more on Boston to win the series after game #1 then the hedge is good. My goal is to get St Louis to win the series at +130 (which I already have) and to get Boston to win the series at +130 or higher as well (for 20 units). Or am I missing something? GL

 

[wiseplayer]

I took a Monday night football game and won +10 units but since I posted it in the NFL forum I won't count it here on the year to date total. It really shouldn't matter anyway but I'll just let it drop into cyberspace uncounted.

I can see where a running year total might be something a casual viewer may find interesting but in the grand scheme of things a record alone shouldn't be the deciding factor on whether you should look/follow one poster or the other. Look at what every poster in the forum has picked and what everyone has to say and then make up your own mind on what to bet. That is the value of these forums. GL

The part about looking at what others pick and then make up your own mind is the best possible advice and one that I have used with you and Bloodhound for a long time. You old geezers better not die anytime soon because I'm screwed if you do!

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks Wise. Blood is too ornery to die soon. GL:rofl:

 

[Timh]

GL Wire - agree on the initial position on the Cards and think they win one of the first two gms.

 

[dexter]

Wire, Dexter,here, AKA Raiseathou from our site years ago. Correct me if I am wrong, but did you not post during the ALCS/NLCS a few days ago that the American League would win the WS no matter who came out of the NLCS? Edify me, Teach.