MLB Wins Over/Under Thread

scarf31

scarf31

CTG Moderator
Staff member
In the process of doing my own research into the Win Totals for bases and thought it might be helpful to get a thread going where we can have an ongoing discussion over what you are going to bet and why.

FYI, for those of you catching up and looking for a summary of all of the offseason moves, feel free to use the following site for a quick catch up.

http://www.mlbcenter.com/offseason-transactions.html

Have never really been a huge fan of futures, but decided that I'm going to take some of my profit from CBB and invest this year.

Initial Leans

Red Sox Under 94.5
Reds Under 80.5
Dodgers Over 82.5
Giants Under 80.5
Cardinals Over 82.5
Rays Over 87.5
Blue Jays Under 80.5

My final bets most likely are going to come from this list, but I am still doing my research....so we'll see how it goes.

Gun to my head right now.....I'd bet the Giants Under and Jays Under.....came very close to betting the Giants under last year and held off....this year with that number near .500, that's almost for certain going to be one of my plays.

Feel free to either comment or add your own thoughts/picks/leans and lets make this something we can all benefit from. :tiphat:
 
i'm thinking of either putting a futures on the Cards OVER or on them to win the World Series.

...for some reason the way they played last year with no expectations makes me think they'll impress again this year.

...i'm going to start looking at those soon, but i'm still on CBB right now
 
SF SP can make them a legit contender in the West . I dont like ARI , COL or SD much at all and LAD has some pitching issues / concerns . SF started out like crap for 2 months and still made 72 wins . Lets see if Zito has bounced back for real . Outside of 2nd base and despite their overall lack of power solid team IMO . Think 77-85 wins is where they end up ...

On the other hand even with Roy the Jays might win 72 games . Decimated at SP with the injuries and Burnett defection . Litsch did an awesome job aftre his recall but still he is far from reliable and is more in the mold of a Rick Reuschel then #2 SP , Purcey had his moments but #3 and Sidny Ponson needed to sign with KC ?, Richmond is not a ML starter IMO because of his age and issues with LHBs. The pen was very good but in some cases so good a repeat performance is highly unlikely . Yes , Scott Downs I am looking at you bro !!!!!!!! Accardo can he return to form or flash in the pan...lineup has inury concerns and aging vets or guys who never lived up to the expectations like Overbay . OF could be sweet..

Would take the Yanks and Rays over before Bostons so that under doesnt look so bad..

Reds are sort of like SFG but with a better lineup or potentially better . Like Dickerson , Votto and Bruce plus Ramon Hernandez is Bengie Molina essentially ...with Arroyo , Cueto and Owings they room to improve for the trio is tremendous IMO . Which is Volzquez is 80% of what he was last year and Harang returns to form is a solid rotation.....



 
i already bet tampa bay under 90.5 wins.

i have an under the radar team that i think will be a great moneymaker all of april and that will go over their season win total but i want to shop it and get down before i say.
 
Moving from the NBA thread:

Locked in:

Toronto Under 79 wins (I got a crappy number)

A few leans I need to research more:

KC Royals Over 75.5 (strongest lean)
SL Cardinals Over 82.5
LA Dodgers Over 82.5 (huge juice @ the Greek but prob worth it)
Minny Twins Over 83.5
Detroit Tigers Over 81.5
Pittsburgh Pirates Under 69.5 (tough to take such a low number)
Mets Over 88.5
Arizona Under 85.5

It looks like most of us agree on the Toronto Under and the Saint Louis Over.

St Louis over 82.5 wins. The Saint Louis number is hard to understand. 3.5 wins less than last year, with pretty much the same team, with Carpenter back and pitching well. They have a solid pitching staff, with Wellenmeyer as the only big question mark. I really like Piniero as a 5th starter. The pen is a bit shaky (honestly havent looked into this too much). The division also didnt improve over last year.

I really like the Royals over 75.5 wins. They won 75 games a year ago and they are only expected to win one more game this year after making improvements? They add Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp to the lineup, and I think Billy Butler has a breakout year. The young players should only get better after another year or experience. Davies has looked really good in spring training and the end of last year. Horacio Ramirez is pretty scary as a #4 starter, but Banister is a good #5 (wish he could hit in the AL). Also think the pen is solid with Farnsworth, Mahay, and Soria. This team will be competitive in a wide open division. Even if they finish last, they should pass 75 wins.

I like the Dodgers over 82.5 wins (heavy juice -220). They won 84 games last year with no offense for half the season. I like the addition of Orlando Hudson, and if they can all stay healthy this is the best lineup in the division. I also like the sigining of Wolf for the backend of the rotation. Have to do more research, but this team should win the division this year. Arizona is overrated IMO, I may play Arizona under 85.5 (not a fan of Felipe Lopez, and Chad Qualls as a closer? No thanks)

Twins over 83.5. They won 88 last year and only made improvements. I like the signing of Crede (provided he is healthy), as they needed some more punch on offense. Young should get better, he played as poorly as he could last year. Gomez should be better with another year under his belt. The pitching staff is the best in the division and has great depth 1-5. Ill take the team that has great fundamentals to win 4 games less than they did last year.

Pirates under 69.5. Such a low number, but what has this team done to win 3 more games than last year? Ohelndorf is awful. Kartsens is showing the 2nd half of last year was a fluke, he is getting raped in ST. Gorzelanny was sent to the minors (he was supposed to be a front line starter). They have a bunch of guys off career years from last year (Doumit / McClouth), and the pen is awful outside of Capps. Still, its tough to pull the trigger on such a low number.

Mets over 88.5. My team, little biased, but here goes. They easily lost 10, probably more games, last year that they led going into the 8th inning. The pen was AWFUL! It should be much better with K-rod and Putz. The lineup is still solid. Castillo (as much as I hate him) will have a good year, really liked his offseason workout, and its showing in ST. Murphy is a solid hitter and glad he will get alot of playing time. The rotation is solid outside of Livan (just hope to get a couple good months before falling apart, hes usually a quick starter). Despite the collpase, they won 89 last year. Willie, who was largely responsible for the slow start is gone too.

Detroit over 81.5 wins. Need to do more research here. Just think they have too much talent to play as bad as they did last year.

Feedback welcome!
 
i have the jays under 79 as well, i started my own thread with the reasons why. similar to SNut. nice outfield but will it stay healthy


still looking at the st louis number..
 
Indians OVER 85.5
A's OVER 82.5
Braves UNDER 84.5
Phillies OVER 88.5
D-backs OVER 86.5
Jays UNDER 79.5

Leaning toward a Brewers UNDER.
 
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<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620 bgColor=#003366><TBODY><TR><TD width=580 align=middle>Baseball Futures</TD><TD width=20>EXIT</TD></TR><TR><TD width=580 align=middle>2009 Baseball Regular Season Wins - Regular Season Wins</TD><TD width=20></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 3:40 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Arizona Diamondbacks regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>701</TD><TD width=300>Over 86½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +100 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>702</TD><TD width=300>Under 86½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -120 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/7/2009 7:05 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Atlanta Braves regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>703</TD><TD width=300>Over 83½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -115 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>704</TD><TD width=300>Under 83½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -105 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 4:05 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Baltimore Orioles regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>705</TD><TD width=300>Over 73½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +110 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>706</TD><TD width=300>Under 73½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -130 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 2:05 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Boston Red Sox regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>707</TD><TD width=300>Over 94½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -120 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>708</TD><TD width=300>Under 94½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +100 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 7:05 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Chicago Cubs regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>709</TD><TD width=300>Over 91½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -140 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>710</TD><TD width=300>Under 91½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +120 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 2:05 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Chicago White Sox regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>711</TD><TD width=300>Over 79½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +170 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>712</TD><TD width=300>Under 79½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -200 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 1:10 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Cincinnati Reds regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>713</TD><TD width=300>Over 80½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +150 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>714</TD><TD width=300>Under 80½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -170 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 2:05 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Cleveland Indians regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>715</TD><TD width=300>Over 85½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -120 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>716</TD><TD width=300>Under 85½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +100 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 3:40 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Colorado Rockies regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>717</TD><TD width=300>Over 77½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +120 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>718</TD><TD width=300>Under 77½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -140 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 7:15 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Detroit Tigers regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>719</TD><TD width=300>Over 82½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +105 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>720</TD><TD width=300>Under 82½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -125 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 4:10 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Florida Marlins regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>721</TD><TD width=300>Over 76½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +115 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>722</TD><TD width=300>Under 76½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -135 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 7:05 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Houston Astros regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>723</TD><TD width=300>Over 74½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +115 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>724</TD><TD width=300>Under 74½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -135 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 2:05 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Kansas City Royals regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>725</TD><TD width=300>Over 75½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -105 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>726</TD><TD width=300>Under 75½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -115 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 9:05 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Los Angeles Angels regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>727</TD><TD width=300>Over 89½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +115 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>728</TD><TD width=300>Under 89½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -135 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/5/2009 4:05 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Los Angeles Dodgers regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>729</TD><TD width=300>Over 82½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -220 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>730</TD><TD width=300>Under 82½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +180 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/7/2009 4:05 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Milwaukee Brewers regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>731</TD><TD width=300>Over 80½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -140 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>732</TD><TD width=300>Under 80½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +120 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 8:10 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Minnesota Twins regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>733</TD><TD width=300>Over 83½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -110 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>734</TD><TD width=300>Under 83½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -110 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 1:10 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>New York Mets regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>735</TD><TD width=300>Over 88½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -120 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>736</TD><TD width=300>Under 88½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +100 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 4:05 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>New York Yankees regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>737</TD><TD width=300>Over 95½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +110 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>738</TD><TD width=300>Under 95½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -130 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 9:05 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Oakland Athletics regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>739</TD><TD width=300>Over 81½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -145 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>740</TD><TD width=300>Under 81½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +125 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/7/2009 7:05 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Philadelphia Phillies regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>741</TD><TD width=300>Over 87½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -145 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>742</TD><TD width=300>Under 87½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +125 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 4:15 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Pittsburgh Pirates regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>743</TD><TD width=300>Over 69½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +120 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>744</TD><TD width=300>Under 69½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -140 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 7:05 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>San Diego Padres regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>745</TD><TD width=300>Over 71½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +100 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>746</TD><TD width=300>Under 71½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -120 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/5/2009 4:05 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>San Francisco Giants regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>747</TD><TD width=300>Over 80½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +125 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>748</TD><TD width=300>Under 80½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -145 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 8:10 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Seattle Mariners regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>749</TD><TD width=300>Over 72½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -125 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>750</TD><TD width=300>Under 72½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +105 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 4:15 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>St Louis Cardinals regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>751</TD><TD width=300>Over 82½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -110 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>752</TD><TD width=300>Under 82½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -110 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 2:05 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Tampa Bay Rays regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>753</TD><TD width=300>Over 87½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -165 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>754</TD><TD width=300>Under 87½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +145 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 2:05 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Texas Rangers regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>755</TD><TD width=300>Over 73½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -125 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>756</TD><TD width=300>Under 73½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +105 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 7:15 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Toronto Blue Jays regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>757</TD><TD width=300>Over 80½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +180 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>758</TD><TD width=300>Under 80½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -200 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>4/6/2009 4:10 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Washington Nationals regular season wins Team must play 160 regular season games for action. MLB.com for stats. Any regular season playoff games not used towards win total. Max wager is $500.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>759</TD><TD width=300>Over 71½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> -130 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width=620><TBODY><TR><TD width=55 align=middle>760</TD><TD width=300>Under 71½ reg season wins </TD><TD width=65> +110 </TD><TD width=200> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
scarf31 said:
Initial Leans

Red Sox Under 94.5
Reds Under 80.5
Dodgers Over 82.5
Giants Under 80.5
Cardinals Over 82.5
Rays Over 87.5
Blue Jays Under 80.5
Click to expand...


love the bosox under, the dodgers over...and kinda like the cards over as well as the rays over.
reds, giants, and jays though (i think) should be right around the #. cincy's an improving team...in a division that's fairly weak, if you remove the cubbies. sf has the starting pitching to stay in a lot of games, despite their offense. and the jays offense will be better this season, imo.
 
The more digging I'm doing, the more I'm backing off of the SF Under. I honestly think that last year and this year, that lineup is AAA caliber at best. The expectations for Sandoval to potentially be their 3 hitter are way too much for a kid in a lineup of stiffs playing in a pitchers ballpark. And Bengie Molina as the cleanup man? You can't be serious.

But the thing backing me off of this one more than anything else is how weak the other teams in that division are, at a closer look. San Diego and Colorado did nothing to improve themselves and Arizona faded like a cheap suit down the stretch, although if their young players can step it up for a full 162, I'm sure they'll be right in it w/their studs on the hill.

Actually b/c of the dog-shittiness (is that a word) of the division....I am now starting to like the Dodgers over more than anything.

Still think the impact on Boston losing Manny from that lineup for a full season will wear on the Sox and that they are one pitching injury away from easily going under their number.

Toronto is still a strong lean. Half the key to their success last year was Burnett being solid (and healthy) for a full season and I'm not sure Litsch is ready to step up into that 2 role just yet. Their 3-5 hurlers aren't blowing me away either and in that division, that could be a major issue.

The other thing about the Jays that I'm going to need to see again this season is the effectiveness of their bullpen. They were absolutely awesome last year and I believe led MLB in pen era by a pretty wide margin. I'm going to need to see that again for this team to be in the mix this year.

Finally, BJ Ryan is not the stud he was in Baltimore. I can't remember a closer that lost as much velocity off of his heater as he has. Although that pen is unique in that it had 4 lefties last year....I just don't think they can bring it to the table like they did in '08.
 
Nothing locked in so far...I have until april 3rd on my site so im waiting a little more to see if my NBA and NHL futures are closer to cashing

Will play

Arizona- Under 86.5. Besides Brandon Webb I dont think this team has any pitching thats going to give them alot of wins. I don't really believe in Garland, Haren and Davis. I think the lineup is ok, but i only really like Connor Jackson. I think they get about 80-82 wins.

Cincinnati- Under 79.5. I like this team..I like Harang, Volquez and Arroyo alot but can they stay healthy?I even liked that they added Micah Owings, but 80 wins is alot.Their lineup is very young, gonzalez is coming off knee surgery and I think Bruce will struggle in the beginning.

Colorado Under 77.5- Love this one here...Their pitching is horrendous. I dont like Cook as a number 1 and even though they got street I still liked Fuentes better. No Matt Holiday in the lineup takes away 25 HRs and 88 Rbi's who is going to fill that?


Florida over 76.5 wins- This team always seems to play at least around 500 so why not 80-81 wins? They would win games even though they played no defense. The pitching is young but always seem to have good outings. Rmairez, Cantu and Uggla should have a solid season

Kansas City over 75.5 wins- I agree with Mets here I love KC this year. I think Meche and Grienke will have good seasons and with the speed and bats they brought in should add extra wins for them this year. Their is no reason why this team cant be at least 500

Will add more later
 
scarf31 said:
The more digging I'm doing, the more I'm backing off of the SF Under. I honestly think that last year and this year, that lineup is AAA caliber at best. The expectations for Sandoval to potentially be their 3 hitter are way too much for a kid in a lineup of stiffs playing in a pitchers ballpark. And Bengie Molina as the cleanup man? You can't be serious.

But the thing backing me off of this one more than anything else is how weak the other teams in that division are, at a closer look. San Diego and Colorado did nothing to improve themselves and Arizona faded like a cheap suit down the stretch, although if their young players can step it up for a full 162, I'm sure they'll be right in it w/their studs on the hill.

Actually b/c of the dog-shittiness (is that a word) of the division....I am now starting to like the Dodgers over more than anything.

Still think the impact on Boston losing Manny from that lineup for a full season will wear on the Sox and that they are one pitching injury away from easily going under their number.

Toronto is still a strong lean. Half the key to their success last year was Burnett being solid (and healthy) for a full season and I'm not sure Litsch is ready to step up into that 2 role just yet. Their 3-5 hurlers aren't blowing me away either and in that division, that could be a major issue.

The other thing about the Jays that I'm going to need to see again this season is the effectiveness of their bullpen. They were absolutely awesome last year and I believe led MLB in pen era by a pretty wide margin. I'm going to need to see that again for this team to be in the mix this year.

Finally, BJ Ryan is not the stud he was in Baltimore. I can't remember a closer that lost as much velocity off of his heater as he has. Although that pen is unique in that it had 4 lefties last year....I just don't think they can bring it to the table like they did in '08.
Click to expand...


In regards to SF's lineup you have some valid points but dont you feel outside of LAD that every team in that division is like that ? SF is a rag tag mix of solid veteran hitters and promising young hitters . Fair point about Sandoval and think they may now be hitting him 5th but look at like this . First he is not playing in a real big market or a team with huge aspirations , second is he is listed at 5'11 246 which tells me one thing he can hit because thats what has taken him this far , last is just a guess but anyone signed out of Latin country is either mature in terms of playing the game then their US counterparts or lying about their age . So inexperienced okay but hitting wont be an issue.

As much as its laughable that Molina hits 4th you look at his production and consistency over the past 7-8 seasons and he sort of deserves it IMO . Problem is he is slow in the turtoise sense . Winn , Rowand , Aurilia off the bench , Renteria all solid and well above avg hitters for their positions .

SD has Eckstein and Luis Rodriguez up the middle and Nick Hundley catching with an OF of Headley , Gerut and B.Giles . Naturally Headley is a big prospect but he certainly doesnt look like a stud prospect IMO on a consistent basis so far .

Not to mention Baek , Correia , and Shawn Hill as there backend of the rotation . Granted all 3 have talent but hard to imagine more then 1 emerging with a consistent season ....

Zona has a solid but not spectular lineup which K's a ton . The better the pitching it faces the worse it will fair IMO .

Same with LAD for me. Very solid lineup but 3-5 in the rotation filled with question marks and the pen is top heavy and needs to find 2-3 more consistent arms . Which for me signals LAD again struggling on the road .

should be interesting to see who emerges here but 85 wins could be the best again..
 
Nut,

Solid points about the NL West. I cannot remember a stranger division in quite a long time. I agree that 85 wins could be the emerging victor and that the Dodgers are the favorite. However, the juice for them over 82.5 is too steep IMO. Laying 2-1 with the hopes that Manny doesn't dog it and that their young pitching lives up to its potential is too much for me. I think I've iso'd my plays and am working on a writeup......
 
scarf31 said:
Nut,

Solid points about the NL West. I cannot remember a stranger division in quite a long time. I agree that 85 wins could be the emerging victor and that the Dodgers are the favorite. However, the juice for them over 82.5 is too steep IMO. Laying 2-1 with the hopes that Manny doesn't dog it and that their young pitching lives up to its potential is too much for me. I think I've iso'd my plays and am working on a writeup......
Click to expand...

Cool bro , actually cant wait to read it . I am with you no interest in the Dodgers over 82.5 wins because not sold on their SP and definetly dont see the value in paying -200 . Crazy division for sure but outside 4-5 teams seems like most of the teams are built that way in 2008 . :shake:
 
Baltimore Orioles Under 73.5 Wins (-130) Laying 19.5 Units to win 15 units

The Orioles have the daunting task of playing in the best division in the bigs. The Red Sox, Yankees and Rays are worlds ahead of this team as far as talent on the field, but are also run by management that has a clue as to the direction they want to go. Baltimore has what I consider to be a horrible owner in Angelos, who has turned the once difficult-to-get Camden Yards ticket into a now easy find.

But onto the reasons for this pick.....

Let's start with the atrocity of a quintet that will be known as the Baltimore starting rotation.

Their "ace" will be none other than Jeremy Guthrie. JG finished with a 10-12 mark and an impressive 3.63 ERA. When you crunch the numbers, Guthrie should have fared better last year as he was plagued with awful run support. And in fairness, he's one of the guys this year I think I'll be betting on as an undervalued pitcher and a nice dog spot. However, he's not a No. 1 pitcher. And this guy is by FAR the best that this team is going to put on the hill.

Their No. 2 guy is going to be a relative unknown. May I introduce you to Koji Uehara, a Japanese import who spent the last season splitting time between a starter and a reliever. Uehara finished last season with 32 saves and does not sport overwhelming strikeout numbers. His game is relying on getting ground balls and allowing his defense to back him up. How is he going to fair against MLB hitters? Only time will tell.

Onto the 3-5 spots in the rotation.....do you hear crickets? So does the O's manager Dave Trembley. That's because there is no certainty for any of these guys that Balty is going to plunk in there. But here are the candidates:

Adam Eaton: Career ERA 4.80 / Career WHIP 1.42 / 2008 ERA 5.80 / 2008 WHIP 1.64

Mark Hendrickson: Career ERA 5.07 / Career WHIP 1.45

Hayden Penn: A relative unknown boasting a spring ERA of 8.78

Rich Hill: Another relative unknown. This former Cub will start the season on the DL with elbow trouble. That's never a good sign

Throw in Brian Bass and Alfredo Simon and that is one hell of a mess.

OK, so it's obvious that the rotation is awful. But I don't know if the above mentioned are going to make that big a difference in improving the O's and their 2008 5.51 (league worst) starters ERA.

The bullpen ERA wasn't that much better....they boasted a 4.57 pen ERA, which managed to be 5th worst in the bigs.
It still hasn't been officially declared who the closer is going to be between Ray and Sherrill and truth be told I don't think it matters that much. Both are run-of-the-mill pitchers who will post decent-to-good stats at best.

Onto the lineup....here is Baltimore's strength. They have solid 1-5 hitters and Adam Jones who'll be the 6th hitter that may (or may not) develop into a serious threat offensively. So you go from Roberts, Mora, Markakis, Huff, Wigginton, Jones......to the black hole of Felix Pie, Greg Zaun and Cesar Izturis rounding out the order. That bottom 3 is weak to say the least, but if Jones develops into the offensive player that O's fan hope for, they may be able to hold their own offensively.

Overview: The bottom line on this team is that they won 68 games last season and may have the worst management in the division (Manager, GM, Owner). Why exactly with no monumental improvements did Vegas set the number for this teams at 6 games better than last year is beyond me. There are way too many question marks with this god awful pitching staff and in this division even if they improve by 3-5 games putting them in the low 70's, I'll still lock this bet up. Seeing is believing, and I just don't believe the Orioles can compete in the most difficult division in baseball having to face the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays a total of 54 games. Throw in the fact that their interleague games arent' that easy outside of Washington (Atl, Philly, NYM, Fla) and I am confident Baltimore goes under the number. :cheers:
 
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St. Louis Cardinals Over 82.5 Wins (-110) Laying 8.25 Units to Win 7.5 Units

If they didn't deal with the slew of injuries that hit them last year, they would have been a playoff contender in the weak National League. And yet, with a questionable bullpen, injuries out the ying yang and a star play who was supposedly hurt to start the season, Saint Lou still won 86 games.

The Cardinals lost Braden Looper, Jason Isringhausen, Cesar Izturis, Felipe Lopez and Aaron Miles during the offseason, and picked up SS Khalil Greene. Neither the additions or subtractions seem to be important enough to make any significant moves of the Redbirds' fate.

The key to this team’s success in 2009 is health, plain and simple. And one of the reasons I like this bet is that the Cards have the best pitching coach in the game. Dave Duncan is a god damned genius. In my mind he should be in the hall of fame, because I can never rememeber a pitching coach that got more out of less.

Do you remember Dave Stewart and Bob Welch in Oakland? Stew became a dominant pitcher while with the A's and Welch won a remarkable 27 games one year in Oakland. Pitching coach? Dave Duncan.

Chris Carpenter was a journeyman in Toronto who goes to Missouri and wins a Cy Young. Jeff Weaver could barely hold a job in '06 and shows up on the Cards' door and makes an enormous contribution in the WS victory. Pitching coach? Dave Duncan.

Needless to say, I think you see my theme here. Duncan will get the most out of the clear strength of this team, their starters. Lohse, Welleymeyer and Wainwright were effective last year (when healthy) and if anyone is going to get the most out of Carpenter, DD is going to.

The bullpen will be interesting. They cannot be any worse than last year in which they blew a mind-blowing 30 saves. It appears that Motte will be the closer to start the season, but Chris Perez may get a shot if that doesn't work out. In order to boost the pen, the Cards added Trever Miller and Dennys Reyes, which will be an upgrade.

The lineup doesn't look frightening, but will get the job done. Schumaker's conversion to 2B and leadoff has been going better than planned. Big Al is sandwiched in the lineup by Duncan and Ludwick, both solid young hitters who should continue to develop. I think there's enough there w/ the starting pitching to stay in contention for a playoff spot through September.

Finally, the unbalanced schedule (I think) bounces in the Cardinals favor. They play 20 games vs. the Brewers, a team that has lost it's best 2 starting pitchers and will be very unlikely to repeat it's performance of last year with holes like that. Throw in the 15 vs. Pitt and 16 vs. Cincy and there are plenty of division games there for the taking in St. Louis.

Overview: This number is being bet because of value. These guys won 86 games last year and now are only at 82.5 for their 2009 campaign AND are going to get make key pieces that weren't there for a great deal of last year? I'll bite. But aside from the Cubs, who look like a sure thing to win the NL Central, there isn’t much competition for second place in a division that features a lot of young teams.
 
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Richie Hill is starting on the DL and doesnt look to be ready anytime soon.

We all know Guthrie is solid but after that huge question marks ! Dont know much about the Japanese import but hard to step into the AL EAST IMO even DiceK had growing pains and he didnt even have to face his RSOX lineup which of course Koji does. If that means Eaton , Hendrickson and Hayden Penn round out the rotation --WOW !! Eaton and hendrickson are declining vets who really couldnt be successful in the NL so dont see what changes a year later . Penn is a solid prospect and has been good in the minors if I recall correctly but his time in the majors has made Kei Igawa look like an all star . <TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores height=16 align=left>Penn career</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>14</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3w</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6L</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>58.inn</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> 84h</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> 63</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>r60</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>er 14hr</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>34bb</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>26k</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> 9.31</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> 2.03</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> .332</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

The key though is I love their bullpen:
Sherrill , Ray , Jim Johnson, Albers , Sarfate , Baez , Bass and Jaime Walker ....

Interested in what their lineup looks like :
Zaun is probably at best a wash for ramon Hernandez but Weiters does wait in the minors
Huff , Roberts , Itzuris and Mora is solid but we can see how the IF has declined when it had Hernandez and tejada in it a few years ago.
Pie , Jones and Markakis is littered with potential but Adam Jones was memerley serviceable last year and Pie has been a bust so far . They added Ryan Freel as well with Wigginton and Luke Scott get utility and DH duties ......

Balt was 11-7 in IL play and actually went 8-2 vs Seattle but 0-5 vs oakland .

Just not sure how Balt is any better then last year and dont see any improvement when I look at the team by team breakdowns . They won just 68 games lost 94 and worse were 57-87 vs the AL ! With 18 games vs the AL EAST hard to see them even winning 11 again.....

I'll guess 71-91 and that is really more on the upside IMO .....might add this play ...:shake:






 
Just looking at 1 Run game records and Xtra inning records think right off the bat we can expect :

Decline in :
TB 29-18 (10-6)
- Now they won 97 games but I think we see how important the role of pitching played in that . I think w/o doubt they will hit alot better with Crawford returning to form , Longoria maturing and for a full season , as well as Pena hopefully remaining healthy , even Pat the Bat is aboard . The key is can the bullpen trio Wheeler , Balfour and Howell duplicate their amazing 2008 season . David Price will arrive at some point but the starting rotation cant really be much better especially when we see Ed Jackson had a high 3's ERA before Sept where he struggled..If everything happened essentially the same would guess TB won about 4 less games ..in the 92-93 range ...offense could improve but I think pitching could considerable dropoff not saying it will but it could theoritically .

Tor 24-32 (6-9)
- They won 86 games but why are they poised to decline with a 24-32 record in 1 run games ? The offense should be a tad better but injuries and Burnett's defection really leave minimal quality after Halladay . The bullpen one of the bets in baseball also has questions and a big one now that BJ Ryan is throwing high 80s rather them low to mid 90s....I am saying of they were in 56 run games last year and did that poorly it could just be a whole lot wose in general . I wont say they will go 14-42 in run games but alot of those 1 run losses might now be 2 or 3 runs ..I really expect To to win 10 less games at least this season . Take away Roy Halladay and they are worse then Balt probably ....

LAA 31-21 (3-5)
-Now they won a 100 games but again bearly 1/3 rd of their games were decided by 1 run. I dont have much faith in LAA pitching as a whole to dulpicate its 2008 season. Lackey already had a cortisone shot , Fuentes has big shoes to fill , can Oliver duplicate 08 , can Arrendondo(sp?) come close to his 08 near perfection ?? They lost Tex and while they added Abreu he is more like a replacemnet for Garrett Anderson IMO . I think LAA will be solid but wont be suprised if they struggled to win 90 games and going to be bold and predict 88 !!

Texas 28-18 (5-6)
- They won 79 and kinda expect a smiliar somewhere around 500 season . They could be better on offense and the bullpen might show more consistency but the SP is still an absolute mess . I think they may have been good in 1 eun games more because they scored a ton and allowed a tin making a single run not as meaningful like it is to LAA ..

Milw 28-17 (12-8)
- I still like this team but think the whole division after CHI is very equal (and Pitt of course) .They won 90 games but CC I am sure had alot to do with the 1 run success so expect more like 85 wins .......

Zona 22-23 (4-6)
-They won 82 games but a team who struggled on offense whose offense doesnt appear any better on paper this season , who will again struggle to repeat the pitching of 2008...which could mean rather then about 500 in 1 run games they fall clearly below it ....

Improving teams :
LAD 19-24 (6-12)
- They won but 84 games but if they could duplicate their 08 pitching could easily see them breaking 90 wins . Issue is that to me is a big if with the rotation having some questions and the pen as well ....

Bravess 11-30 (3-10)
- Health is a big question with their pitching but even just a similiar season would put them back at 500 and any improvement would get them to the mid 80s wins...they have some nice additions but also some injuries ....

Mets 16-19 (9-9)
- They improved their pen and this is a team who won 89 games despite not doing well in thse situations and also lost 7games when leading after 7 innings . The rotation doesnt have career consistency on its side but think they could replicate 2008 . They should get 5 more wins just from a better pen

Tigers 16-25 (3-9)
- Just like ATL this is again a team who w/o much improvement should just right back to 500 and if injuries stay away and some SP regain their form more like an mid 80s win team

Cle 15-17 (5-9)
-Adding Wood shild be a great help but can lee duplicate his insane season ? The others should improve though . Simly expect a mid 80s win season as long as Lee doesnt revert to previous form


Also think Minny who was 26-26 could see a decline in close games and while Boston was 22-23 dont think they can add to their record becyse they feasted on poor teams but 1-3 SP is outstanding just a matter of the back of the rotation and consistency in the pen if they win 95 games IMO .....

:shake:
























 
Nice writeups Scarf.

Just curious, when you state you are laying 39 units on Baltimore under 73 wins, what is your relativity scale? In other words, how many units do you play on a game during regular season?

I haven't played regular season win totals before because of the reason mentioned earlier by Yanks--I don't want to tie up a bunch of my money for 6 months. However, it seems there is good money to be made playing these win total futures, as almost every year in October I look back and kick myself for not making my plays in March.

I have a handful of futures that I am looking at playing, my issue now is how much should I play them for relative to my baseball bankroll.

Opinions from anyone else who uses a ratio (future win total bet/reg season bet) are appreciated as well.
 
Tuna,

Good question and I should've made it clearer before. I made a real nice chunk of change this CBB season and through poker, so these wagers that I made on the Over/Unders are a completely separate entity from my regular bankroll, which I allocate by sport. For example, I have a 100 unit bankroll dedicated to baseball. Most of my plays will be 2 or 3 units, with the occassional play going up to 5 units.

This tactic is used for money management and disciplinary purposes and never allows me to get either too high or too low based upon a bad or good stretch.
 
Haven't seen anyone mention the Padres, but I really can't see them going over 71 wins. Take out Adrian Gonzalez, and they are basically fielding a minor league lineup every single day. Though the Padres have used the same formula (pitching + defense + below average lineup) with success as recently as 2007, I think that they lack the pitching quality and depth that's been their staple in recent years.

A quick look through the Pads projected every day lineup. The positives: Stud 1B Adrian Gonzalez, promising OF Chase Headley, and decent bat, no field 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff. The negatives: pretty much everything else. Their middle infield of Luis Rodriguez and David Eckstein will be lucky to combine for 10 HR and 80 RBI. Brian Giles is 38 and in decline. Nick Hundley projects to be a below average offensive catcher. With that lineup, I just don't see teams giving Adrian Gonzalez anything good to hit, with no reason not to constantly pitch around him.

Starting pitching will be the Padres strength, but even still, it isn't as big of an asset as it's been in previous years. Jake Peavy carries a few additional question marks this season, with his elbow problems from last season, his poor WBC numbers, a declining strikeout rate, and persistant trade rumors that will only intensify near the July 31 trade deadline. Chris Young rebounded nicely after that horrific line drive off his face last year, but is still an extreme fly-ball pitcher who also had elbow problems of his own. Gone are Greg Maddux and Randy Wolf (both traded at last year's deadline) and are replaced by Cha Seung Baek, Kevin Correia, and Shawn Hill at the back of the rotation. Baek is already complaining of elbow soreness and Correia's career stats show he is better suited to the pen. Hill can be effective, as people forget his successful 2007 numbers with the Nationals. But if a team with its own pitching issues like the Nats lets a guy like Hill go, it shouldn't go unnoticed.

The bullpen should still be solid, but again, not as strong as previous seasons due to lack of depth. Trevor Hoffman is gone, and while, his numbers were in decline, and Heath Bell has the stuff necessary to be a successful closer, it takes Bell out of the valuable 7th/8th inning role. Cla Meredith is capable of being that guy, but I'm skeptical of Yankee and Oriole castoff Chris Britton being capable of taking over Meredith's role.

I see a team that went 63-99 last season and has gotten worse on paper. Their pythagorean W/L record was 68-94. They will have trouble scoring runs all season long. Even though the NL West in a weak division, the pitching in the division is pretty strong, which doesn't bode well for the Pads. I really think they will be hard pressed to win 65 games this year. Add in the fact that there's still a chance of Peavy being moved during the season, and I think they lose 100.

San Diego Padres under 71.5 wins (-120) for 8 units


looking at 2 or 3 others as well, trying to get some thoughts together
 
Agree with SD thoughts just dont get overly excited in playing low unders but maybe ....


Over Seattle and Under Oakland are the two that jump out the most to me. Oakland's pitching is just way to questionable and IMO a sound dropoff from last year . The offense improved clearly but using high ceiling vets who have battled injuries could keep them from fulfilling it . Sea is just as good probably better then OAK imo.....

:cheers:
 
The Cincinnati Reds were a trendy sleeper pick heading into 2008 but they disappointed with a 74-88 record. It seemed as if they never found the right mix of youth and veterans and ended up spending nearly the entire season battling the Pirates for fifth place in the weak NL Central. The Reds appear to be committed to the youth movement from the outset for 2009 and are under the radar for many. However, this team has the talent to surprise, and should be able to surpass 80.5 wins.

The Reds had a quiet offseason, with their only significant acquisitions being Ramon Hernandez and Willy Taveras. Overall, the Reds offense should be improved this year. Hernandez should be a significant offensive upgrade at catcher though, as he is basically replacing the offensively challenged combo of Paul Bako and David Ross; Hernandez is capable of 20+ homeruns in Great American Ballpark. Joey Votto should be able to improve a very impressive 24 HR, 84 RBI rookie season and the Reds will also benefit from an entire season of Jay Bruce in the everyday lineup. Brandon Phillips is one of the more underrated hitters in the National League. A concern is that Dusty Baker has obviously named Willy Taveras his everyday leadoff hitter, because he equates speed with the ability to get on base (see: Patterson, Corey). However, Taveras is showing increased patience in Spring Training and hopefully that carries over to the games that count. Taveras is the key to that lineup, as if he can get on base consistently, the Reds should have an above average offensive lineup.

Now onto the Reds' rotation: Harang, Volquez, Cueto, Arroyo and Owings, with Homer Bailey waiting in the wings -- I love the upside here. If nothing else, Harang is consistent and should be better than last year, assuming Dusty doesn't decide to give him any 4 inning relief stints on two days rest. (His ERA at the time was a respectable 3.50, and followed that up with ERAs of 6.00, 12.46 and 8.41 for June, July and August respectively.) Volquez has been lights out so far this spring and is as talented as any starting pitcher in that division. Johnny Cueto needs to be more consistent, but, again, the potential is there. I personally don't like Arroyo and would not be surprised to see Homer Bailey take his spot in the rotation by June 1. Micah Owings is a question mark, as he looked like he was on his way to a very nice season last year, before proceeding to lose 7 of his last 8 decisions, getting injured and finding himself dealt to Cincinnati in the Adam Dunn deal. If healthy though, he can rebound and be an above average back of the rotation starter.

The bullpen should be fine, with Cordero, Weathers and Burton. Hopefully Baker realizes that at this point in his career, Arthur Rhodes should be nothing more than a lefty specialist; the Marlins showed him to be solid in that role last year.

After the Cubs, the NL Central is wide open and I like the Reds to win 84-86 games. While that is a big jump from the 74 games they won last season, I think that the bigger issue was the Reds underachieving last year (when their O/U was 79.5 wins). I just really like the Reds' starting pitching, and think they they can be this year's Rays.

Cincinnati Reds over 80.5 wins (+120) for 8 units
 
Thanks everyone for the thoughts as we kick off the baseball season in about 90 minutes. Got a lot of good insight from everyone's contributions and hope we can keep it going all season long. :shake::shake:

Also, decided to change my unit denomination to be twice what it was before, so I will accordingly adjust my future bet amounts/win amounts in the above threads.

Good luck everyone!
 
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