MLB ~ Week 15

[mrpickem]

Sunday 6-3 +3.9u
Week -3.5u
YTD -28.62u

Five winning days were trumped by 2 f'd days this past week. I am going to be playing less games and games will be added through the day when needed. I been trying to get plays in early to get Tony's nickle line but in some cases I just rushed through without adequate research.

• 954 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +155 C-Mart 6-8 RL away L365 for 15% ROI fading him https://goo.gl/HzSKwB
• 954 Arizona Diamondbacks -144 Ray 14-6 L365 for +30% ROI https://goo.gl/LKwvSs
• 961 Boston Red Sox +147 Max only 5-7 lifetime vs Bosox https://goo.gl/bDyokW

AZ:
Road dogs after leaving home after a loss don't fair well on RL, when they lose they get beat down pretty much
AD and 110 < line < 160 and season > 2016 and p:HL
SU: 33-50 (-1.43, 39.8%) avg line: 133.3 / -143.3 on / against: -$548 / +$218 ROI: -6.6% / +1.8%
RL: 43-40 (0.07, 51.8%) avg line: -162.9 / 143.6 on / against: -$2,297 / +$1,503 ROI: -17.0% / +18.1%


Also teams losing 3 or more straight and leaving home for road trip start poorly losing 66%
AD and streak <= -3 and season >= 2015 and p:H
SU: 33-64 (-1.14, 34.0%) avg line: 149.2 / -162.4 on / against: -$1,894 / +$1,487 ROI: -19.5% / +9.4%

Lastly SL ad road dog off home loss at night returns 37% on RL over last 5.5 years

BOS:

Fade home favorite off loss with excellent starter vs team with very good starter when total below 8. Also point under a bit, which I will look further into this. This is a value play that you will win less often but big juice will make up for it.
HF and STDSERA < 2.75 and o:STDSERA > 3.25 and season > 2015 and total < 8 and p:L
SU: 40-34 (0.20, 54.1%) avg line: -189.6 / 173.7 on / against: -$2,093 / +$1,554 ROI: -14.9% / +21.0%
RL: 27-47 (-1.30, 36.5%) avg line: 138.5 / -140.5 on / against: -$1,438 / +$1,023 ROI: -18.2% / +9.6%
OU: 29-40-5 (-0.09, 42.0%) avg total: 7.2 over / under: -$1,367 / +$820 ROI: -17.0% / +9.9%

Also sox are 9-6 +39% ROI as road dog off loss vs righty last 1.5years

 

[tuck321]

Obviously like a play on Boston,
Very worried about the Arizona bet. Cards have now lost 4 in a row which for them is unthinkable. Pretty much a guarrantee of major effort. BOL

 

[mrpickem]

Obviously like a play on Boston,
Very worried about the Arizona bet. Cards have now lost 4 in a row which for them is unthinkable. Pretty much a guarrantee of major effort. BOL

You are right, SL only lost 4 straight 21 times in 10.5 years, by far the lowest in majors. NYY 32 and BOS 35 are next lowest. I'm worried about bet too now, when it's 4-1 after 1 inn. lol

GL Bro

 

[mrpickem]

Monday 1-2

• 901 San Francisco Giants* +121
• 904 Arizona Diamondbacks* -1½ +165
• 904 Arizona Diamondbacks* -141
• 907 Houston Astros* -169
• 912 Seattle Mariners* -106
• 916 Milwaukee Brewers* -135
• 915 Minnesota Twins/Milwaukee Brewers* Under 9 -115
• 917 Boston Red Sox* +101
• 920 Philadelphia Phillies* -146

 

[mrpickem]

Guess I'll take a shot with tigs...hendricks top 10 money loser L365 going 13-19 as average 159 favorite. Also points pretty strong under

starter = Kyle Hendricks and starter in [Michael Fulmer , Kyle Hendricks] and date > 20170703
SU: 13-19 (0.44, 40.6%) avg line: -159.3 / 144.7 on / against: -$1,703 / +$1,428 ROI: -32.9% / +42.3%
RL: 9-23 (-0.59, 28.1%) avg line: -103.9 / -116.4 on / against: -$1,650 / +$1,445 ROI: -43.2% / +35.6%
OU: 10-22-0 (-0.83, 31.2%) avg total: 8.5 over / under: -$1,316 / +$1,132 ROI: -38.2% / +31.5%

• 913 Detroit Tigers +183

plus day records

and tigs been profitable day bey this year

 

[mrpickem]

Tuesday 8-2

Had very good day yesterday and started well today with BOS but site was down all morning so I didn't post. Here is the rest of my plays, some underway already

• 961 Cleveland Indians -1½ -160
• 967 Tampa Bay Rays/Miami Marlins Under 7½ -122
• 958 Seattle Mariners -106
• 957 Los Angeles Angels/Seattle Mariners Under 8 -110
• 955 St. Louis Cardinals +135
• 955 St. Louis Cardinals/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 8 -115
• 966 New York Yankees -175

 

[tuck321]

Fell for Cleveland RL myself

 

[mrpickem]

Wednesday a wash

THURSDAY:

• Washington Nationals J Hellickson - R -1 -145 vs Miami Marlins P Lopez - R
• Texas Rangers/Detroit Tigers Over 9 -120 - Thu 7/5 7:10pm Baseball Reduced Reduced Juice - Internet Only
• Chicago White Sox/Houston Astros Under 7½ -110 - Thu 7/5 8:10pm Baseball Reduced Reduced Juice - Internet Only
• St. Louis Cardinals/San Francisco Giants Under 7½ +107 - Thu 7/5 10:15pm Baseball Reduced Reduced Juice - Internet Only
• San Francisco Giants -129 vs St. Louis Cardinals - Thu 7/5 10:15pm MLB Baseball St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
• Seattle Mariners -133 vs Los Angeles Angels - Thu 7/5 10:10pm MLB Baseball Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
• San Diego Padres +145 vs Arizona Diamondbacks - Thu 7/5 9:40pm MLB Baseball San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
• Chicago White Sox +285 vs Houston Astros - Thu 7/5 8:10pm MLB Baseball Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
• Milwaukee Brewers -108 vs Atlanta Braves - Thu 7/5 8:10pm MLB Baseball Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
• Texas Rangers -1½ +168 vs Detroit Tigers - Thu 7/5 7:10pm MLB Baseball Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers

GL gents...

:cheers3:

 

[mrpickem]

Thursday 7-3

Of 9 starts this year Stanek has only been scored on in only one game so far, although he hasn't pitched over 2 innings in any start to date. But combined with a good pen and the Mets anemic offense(.215 at homes and .225 L7) I ride the Rays. Boston looks too easy but so much juice...take a crack with ML. Folty has been great and Braves have lots of hitters(although they were handcuffed last night after 1st inn by Chacin). Zona money at home on year although Godley far from great. So if they win I believe likely cover RL so may as well get paid. Friday's are typically my worse night on a whole, so plays are dialed back substantially.

FRIDAY:

• 957 Atlanta Braves +125
• 960 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +155
• 973 Boston Red Sox -1½ -160
• 975 Tampa Bay Rays +153

 

[Timh]

BOL MRP.

 

[mrpickem]

adding...

• 952 Chicago Cubs -163
• 952 Chicago Cubs -1½ +135
• 980 Seattle Mariners -129

Cubs 18-5 22% ROI in home day games L23 and 16-7 RL +43.6% ROI
View attachment 33148

while Reds 3-13 day division games..fading ROI ML 28% and RL 43%
View attachment 33149

M's 13-1 L14 as home fav less than 175 for 61% ROI and even 32%ROI on RL at 7-7

View attachment 33150

 

[JROCK1966]

BOL @mrpickem !!

 

[bee172]

Can’t argue against the M’s. They’re still winning a bunch of games. All this without the steroids of Robinson Cano!!!

 

[mrpickem]

Friday 2-5

Well, would have been 2-2 with small profit on original picks but had to add 3 losers to F the night.

SATURDAY:

• 903 St. Louis Cardinals -111
• 909 Miami Marlins +300 flyer for only .6u https://goo.gl/p8CeSb
• 912 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +135
• 912 Arizona Diamondbacks -179
• 915 New York Yankees -1½ -120 https://goo.gl/kQERY9
• 915 New York Yankees -186 Severino top $$ pitcher L365 by far and even 13-4 on road in that time https://goo.gl/NSajWA
• 917 Chicago White Sox/Houston Astros Under 8 -115 https://goo.gl/UNp8Zb
• 920 Detroit Tigers +109 had tigs selected yesterday and backed out... https://goo.gl/jof2So
• 923 Boston Red Sox -185 sox $$ as road fav..not RL though https://goo.gl/qB5iRj
• 923 Boston Red Sox/Kansas City Royals Under 9 -110 https://goo.gl/sfu6x3
• 926 New York Mets +1½ -150 Taking muts even though I love snell https://goo.gl/EfyE3d
• 928 Seattle Mariners -196 https://goo.gl/AehqDu plus best SAT team at 12-3

Liked SL under but backed off due to ref. Still cant believe I'm on NYM vs Snell :shocked:it cant go wrong, right?? https://goo.gl/VjYLun

Dbacks tough at home as small fav at night in division (13-3 +27% ROI since '15)...3-1 this year
View attachment 33157

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 901 Cincinnati Reds/Chicago Cubs Over 8½ -121

 

[mrpickem]

gonna roll with twinks too

• 914 Minnesota Twins -144
• 914 Minnesota Twins -1½ +145

 

[mrpickem]

Saturday 9-6

Sunday:

• 956 Milwaukee Brewers* -1½ +170
• 955 Atlanta Braves/Milwaukee Brewers* Under 9 -110
• 966 Cleveland Indians* -177
• 968 Detroit Tigers* -118

 

[mrpickem]

adding a few more

• 958 Chicago Cubs* -147 Lester 14-3 this year, 14-4 @home L365 and 12-2 vs Reds alltime
• 962 Arizona Diamondbacks* -210 https://goo.gl/2BMfJ3
• 963 New York Yankees* -154 NY 5-0 on road vs lefty in day game this year
• 973 Boston Red Sox* -215 It's the fuckin royos for gawds sake https://goo.gl/qB5iRj
• 977 Colorado Rockies/Seattle Mariners* Under 8½ -101 https://goo.gl/oLMPJp

 

[mrpickem]

one last play

• 979 Los Angeles Dodgers -110