I will update my record tonight...for what it's worth.
Anyways, tonight's card:
Seattle (Hernandez) (1.90) 10 units
I honestly think Guthrie is slowing down and will regress even more after posting fantastic numbers throughout the season. I just don't think he can maintain the highest level of pitching without any bumps on the road.
Even if he doesn't get flamed tonight, I expect a similar kind of game as he had against Boston.
The M's have a deep, versatile lineup, several hitters are pounding the ball, Ichiro (Suzuki is batting .451 (14-for-31) with one homer, five RBIs, seven runs scored and three steals in seven games this season against the Orioles. He's 100-for-263 (.380) lifetime against Baltimore, the highest average versus the Orioles for any player with 150 or more plate appearances since 1957), Ibanez, Guillen, Beltre...
Guthrie (7-3, 2.98 ERA) will have his hands full tonight, and after allowing 9 hits in 5 innings of work in Boston, I think the resurging, playoff hunting, hungry M's could tag him for a similar number.
Felix (7-6, 3.89 ERA) on the other hand is improving after a mediocre period. He still has to beat the Orioles this season, but his team has been quite dominant over Baltimore so I expect him to grab a W here.
The Mariners are only 1 game behind the WC spot. Guthrie already has a win in Seattle this year, retaliation time. Taking the better team, the better pitcher, at almost pk price.
Angels (Moseley) (1.95) 6 units
Getting LA Angels at home at this price is always a bargain. Especially if a pitching matchup is rather a close one, like this one is in my opinion. Jon Lester is the feel good story, the guy beat cancer and I admire him for it, but he still might be a better bet at home than on the road, even though his road woes were minimal since his return, he has seen a rather cold TB lineup and that has to be taken into consideration.
These guys here can hit, and they're hot, if you look at the past few days. They're also determined to beat Boston since they were absolutely torched earlier in the season at Fenway.
Now they can get it all back, and frankly at this price I think we'll have a lot of Boston chasers, which I believe is the wrong path to take in this situation.
Moseley isn't as sharp as Saunders, hence my over lean, but he can still pitch, and same as Lester, I believe he will be a more compelling bet at home, especially at this price.
Toronto (Halladay) (2.11) 6 units
The Yankees may be one of (if not the best) best teams in the majors but they have to hit a wall every once in a while. They were quite close to losing Game 1 of the series but eventually escaped with a narrow W, which is all that matters.
They outplayed Toronto last night as the Rocket got ejected, and I think we have a great chance to fade them here. After all, despite the fact Yanks are a powerhouse they still have a negative return rate and betting on them constantly does not generate profit.
Picking your spots (both tailing and fading them) does. So I picked mine. Halladay at home, after 2 losses, a revamped Blue Jays team (they are still playing better baseball than a month ago).
I won't go into numbers here, check ESPN or Sportsline for that, all that matters to me is that Wang isn't as sharp on the road and the Yanks are overvalued again. Despite being the better team, Toronto should step up here.
GL :cheers:
