Satyr
Paster of Muppets
MLB 2007: 92 W-7V-82 L +52.59 units
4-3, +10 units last night. Hopefully this is a start of a winning streak. Got my confidence back, feeling great, I'd like to think that doing the same with the units I lost in the last week is just a matter of time.
Early thoughts. Ok, let's get something straight. These are JUST LEANS at this point, not plays. Baseball is a tricky one, these guys play 150 games per season, and that's just regular season, you have to state out the leans first, put everything on the scale, under a microscope, take a lot of things in consideration before making a play.
This makes it so different from some other sports where you can basically spot the pick from a plane.
Sometimes you can do it here as well, but I do need to check a lot of things before pulling the trigger. But there are far more experienced guys in here, this is my 4th year watching baseball, 3rd year betting it, so I'm still in the learning process.
Leans:
Diamondbacks (3.00)
Livan at triple the money? Ok let me get something straight. Mike Mussina v Hernandez? And the Snakes have a 3.00 pricetag pinned. Hmm.
What I like here is the general observation of the teams. Yesterday everyone were all over Arizona with their ace (and NL Cy Young) and now that they lost, everyone are hopping off the bandwagon. Well so much room in here, I just might rest there for a while.
The thing is, Mike Mussina (2-3, 5.63 ERA), is FAR from his best days, he's definitely hittable. And even though Arizona will have troubles beating one of the hottest teams (they were 7 games behind .500 just a few weeks ago, now sitting at 31-31), I still have to pay respect to Livan Hernandez (5-3, 3.66 ERA) who has had only one bad start so far (in Houston). He usually goes deep into the game, and hasn't given up more than 3 ERs in his last 5 starts. I'm thinking everyone are just too eager to jump on the Yanks' suddenly surging bandwagon and are perhaps forgetting that these Snakes can bite as well. They're 37-28 after all, and will send out one of their best pitchers.
Mussina is 1-2, 6.65 ERA at home.
I'm aware the Yanks are hot but this price is too off.
Small lean, playing the price.
Phillies (1.87)
I'll be brief. The Sox suck. And I don't see anything changing here, I'm not afraid to back a call up (Kendrick) against a team that doesn't have a single hitter over .300 season average. They're like Kansas City in disguise.
The White Sox are just plain awful at the moment and the Phillies are actually showing heart even though they're losing games in all possible ways as well, they're still mixing it up with some convincing wins.
Danks lacks control and the White Sox are giving run support to no one. In their last 13 games they only scored more than 3 runs TWICE.
Strong lean here as well at almost pk.
Phillies go up early and the kid pitches with a lead.
Mariners (2.32)
Seattle are the hottest team in the majors right now, Yankees included. These guys are winning close games, dominating games, winning with big margins, you name it. They're crushing the ball and that's with their cleanup hitter hitting .195.
Everyone can hit there right now. Ask Willie Bloomqvist. The chemistry among Hargrove's boys is at an all time high, they're clicking and firing on all cylinders, and will send out Miguel Batista, who already has 7 wins. Batista (7-4, 5.48 ERA) is 4-1 with a 4.91 ERA in seven road games, with the Mariners going 6-1 during that stretch. His numbers aren't the most impressive, but you can't neglect the fact he's been winning games, getting run support and pitching his way out of trouble quite efficiently. He is 3-0 with a 4.44 ERA in his last four starts.
The Cubs are still clueless. They'll be missing Aramis Ramirez, they have plenty guys not hitting, and the sole fact of Marshall (2-2, 2.08 ERA) will be on the mound doesn't warrant these odds if you ask me.
Marshall is trying to win his third straight start. The 6-foot-7 left-hander has allowed just two runs and 10 hits through 12 2-3 innings to win back-to-back starts, including a 9-1 victory over Atlanta on Friday.
Since being called up from Triple-A Iowa, Marshall has allowed just six earned runs in 26 innings in his four appearances while holding opponents to a .208 batting average. After being given just one run of support in his first two starts, he has gotten 17 in his last two. Ok, I admit, this is a pro Cub argument, but as I said, not NEARLY enough to make these odds realistic. We're talking AL's hottest team against one of the NL's biggest underachievers.
Marshall is 1-2 with a 6.89 ERA in three career interleague starts, but has never faced Seattle. Marshall just doesn't warrant such odds. He has been quite strong in his last couple of outings but not THAT good. Plenty of value on the hot M's bats. Forget the bad schedule spot, fatigue from a makeup game, etc...they're HOT and 2.32 on them is gold. Huge lean. Only a few big injuries or some important anti Seattle news can keep me away from this one.
Athletics (2.00)
Blanton not bad, Oakland in June, Houston still sucks despite winning last night. Smaller lean.
Other comments:
>I'll be laying off the Angels for a while, despite the pitching matchups, and everything else. I just can't cap their games when they have 6 runners LOB-s per game and they're so non clutch at the moment it's hilarious. Vlad can't hit a house, Matthews is lacking any kind of killer instinct, they're relying on Figgins to get on base (he's hitting very well lately) and Kotchman or Cabrera to hit a double. That's it.
Until that changes, I can't back them. They should've blown out the Reds last night, same as the Cards earlier this week. Instead they're blowing games with ease and I can't back them. Won't be going against them either, as they're still a top class team.
>I would really like to back the Blue Jays here but I can't. The way they're hitting, missing some players from the lineup plus no DH in NL parks, they're toothless.
Lincecum kid has nasty stuff but the Giants are awful as well, plus probably no Bonds. I think Lincecum gets a bit too much respect here since McGowan is slowly improving, but it's a stay away game for me probably.
>I know Peavy is a stud but this price is hilarious. The Padres are in a funk right now and the Rays are playing some high confidence baseball, erasing deficits, dominating late innings...
I know it's Edwin Jackson but I can't back Peavy either. Lean Tampa.
>Detroit coming off Verlander's no hitter last night. Brew Crew completely cold ,Hardy, Estrada not hitting, except for Fielder this is a pretty cold lineup right now. Maroth is only 0-2 with a 5.60 ERA in four home starts and getting only 4.0 runs of support, compared to double digit RPG on the road.
No bet.
>no take on the LAD-NYM game. Boston should pound Fogg and get Schilling some run support after being cold for a while, I'm thinking of laying 2 (adjusted RL) for a chump change at 2.00 odds.
That's it so far, I might add something later. I'll let you know what I pull the trigger on as soon as I do it.
Good luck guys. :shake: :cheers:
4-3, +10 units last night. Hopefully this is a start of a winning streak. Got my confidence back, feeling great, I'd like to think that doing the same with the units I lost in the last week is just a matter of time.
Early thoughts. Ok, let's get something straight. These are JUST LEANS at this point, not plays. Baseball is a tricky one, these guys play 150 games per season, and that's just regular season, you have to state out the leans first, put everything on the scale, under a microscope, take a lot of things in consideration before making a play.
This makes it so different from some other sports where you can basically spot the pick from a plane.
Sometimes you can do it here as well, but I do need to check a lot of things before pulling the trigger. But there are far more experienced guys in here, this is my 4th year watching baseball, 3rd year betting it, so I'm still in the learning process.
Leans:
Diamondbacks (3.00)
Livan at triple the money? Ok let me get something straight. Mike Mussina v Hernandez? And the Snakes have a 3.00 pricetag pinned. Hmm.
What I like here is the general observation of the teams. Yesterday everyone were all over Arizona with their ace (and NL Cy Young) and now that they lost, everyone are hopping off the bandwagon. Well so much room in here, I just might rest there for a while.
The thing is, Mike Mussina (2-3, 5.63 ERA), is FAR from his best days, he's definitely hittable. And even though Arizona will have troubles beating one of the hottest teams (they were 7 games behind .500 just a few weeks ago, now sitting at 31-31), I still have to pay respect to Livan Hernandez (5-3, 3.66 ERA) who has had only one bad start so far (in Houston). He usually goes deep into the game, and hasn't given up more than 3 ERs in his last 5 starts. I'm thinking everyone are just too eager to jump on the Yanks' suddenly surging bandwagon and are perhaps forgetting that these Snakes can bite as well. They're 37-28 after all, and will send out one of their best pitchers.
Mussina is 1-2, 6.65 ERA at home.
I'm aware the Yanks are hot but this price is too off.
Small lean, playing the price.
Phillies (1.87)
I'll be brief. The Sox suck. And I don't see anything changing here, I'm not afraid to back a call up (Kendrick) against a team that doesn't have a single hitter over .300 season average. They're like Kansas City in disguise.
The White Sox are just plain awful at the moment and the Phillies are actually showing heart even though they're losing games in all possible ways as well, they're still mixing it up with some convincing wins.
Danks lacks control and the White Sox are giving run support to no one. In their last 13 games they only scored more than 3 runs TWICE.
Strong lean here as well at almost pk.
Phillies go up early and the kid pitches with a lead.
Mariners (2.32)
Seattle are the hottest team in the majors right now, Yankees included. These guys are winning close games, dominating games, winning with big margins, you name it. They're crushing the ball and that's with their cleanup hitter hitting .195.
Everyone can hit there right now. Ask Willie Bloomqvist. The chemistry among Hargrove's boys is at an all time high, they're clicking and firing on all cylinders, and will send out Miguel Batista, who already has 7 wins. Batista (7-4, 5.48 ERA) is 4-1 with a 4.91 ERA in seven road games, with the Mariners going 6-1 during that stretch. His numbers aren't the most impressive, but you can't neglect the fact he's been winning games, getting run support and pitching his way out of trouble quite efficiently. He is 3-0 with a 4.44 ERA in his last four starts.
The Cubs are still clueless. They'll be missing Aramis Ramirez, they have plenty guys not hitting, and the sole fact of Marshall (2-2, 2.08 ERA) will be on the mound doesn't warrant these odds if you ask me.
Marshall is trying to win his third straight start. The 6-foot-7 left-hander has allowed just two runs and 10 hits through 12 2-3 innings to win back-to-back starts, including a 9-1 victory over Atlanta on Friday.
Since being called up from Triple-A Iowa, Marshall has allowed just six earned runs in 26 innings in his four appearances while holding opponents to a .208 batting average. After being given just one run of support in his first two starts, he has gotten 17 in his last two. Ok, I admit, this is a pro Cub argument, but as I said, not NEARLY enough to make these odds realistic. We're talking AL's hottest team against one of the NL's biggest underachievers.
Marshall is 1-2 with a 6.89 ERA in three career interleague starts, but has never faced Seattle. Marshall just doesn't warrant such odds. He has been quite strong in his last couple of outings but not THAT good. Plenty of value on the hot M's bats. Forget the bad schedule spot, fatigue from a makeup game, etc...they're HOT and 2.32 on them is gold. Huge lean. Only a few big injuries or some important anti Seattle news can keep me away from this one.
Athletics (2.00)
Blanton not bad, Oakland in June, Houston still sucks despite winning last night. Smaller lean.
Other comments:
>I'll be laying off the Angels for a while, despite the pitching matchups, and everything else. I just can't cap their games when they have 6 runners LOB-s per game and they're so non clutch at the moment it's hilarious. Vlad can't hit a house, Matthews is lacking any kind of killer instinct, they're relying on Figgins to get on base (he's hitting very well lately) and Kotchman or Cabrera to hit a double. That's it.
Until that changes, I can't back them. They should've blown out the Reds last night, same as the Cards earlier this week. Instead they're blowing games with ease and I can't back them. Won't be going against them either, as they're still a top class team.
>I would really like to back the Blue Jays here but I can't. The way they're hitting, missing some players from the lineup plus no DH in NL parks, they're toothless.
Lincecum kid has nasty stuff but the Giants are awful as well, plus probably no Bonds. I think Lincecum gets a bit too much respect here since McGowan is slowly improving, but it's a stay away game for me probably.
>I know Peavy is a stud but this price is hilarious. The Padres are in a funk right now and the Rays are playing some high confidence baseball, erasing deficits, dominating late innings...
I know it's Edwin Jackson but I can't back Peavy either. Lean Tampa.
>Detroit coming off Verlander's no hitter last night. Brew Crew completely cold ,Hardy, Estrada not hitting, except for Fielder this is a pretty cold lineup right now. Maroth is only 0-2 with a 5.60 ERA in four home starts and getting only 4.0 runs of support, compared to double digit RPG on the road.
No bet.
>no take on the LAD-NYM game. Boston should pound Fogg and get Schilling some run support after being cold for a while, I'm thinking of laying 2 (adjusted RL) for a chump change at 2.00 odds.
That's it so far, I might add something later. I'll let you know what I pull the trigger on as soon as I do it.
Good luck guys. :shake: :cheers:
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