Satyr
Paster of Muppets
MLB 2007: 68 W-6V-57 L +64.59 units
Small downtrend, hoping to put a stop to it today. Small review of last night's bets: Mets won kinda luckily, the RL was a big mistake, should've played them on the ML. Atlanta lost in a weird game (around 30 hits if I'm not mistaking), Smoltz got injured, I really hoped that one will cash in. Anyways, let's do the job tonight, several plays I like.
Indians (2.67 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
The books rate this one as a 64%-36% game, and I rate it as a 53%-47% one. The discrepancy is quite substantial and I had to make it a play. The thing is, the Red Sox are on a serious roll...they're 14.5 games ahead of their eternal foes Yankees in the standings, sitting on league's best 36-15 overall record. 21 games above .500 is an outstanding accomplishment for this stage of the season, but the Indians are quite hot as well, 31-19, and have a very solid offense, combined with consistent pitching; one of these consistent pitchers is Paul Byrd (5-1, 3.81 ERA). Byrd has been solid throughout the season so far, and hasn't dropped a decision since April 21. He is 4-0 with a 4.05 ERA in his last six starts, and has lasted at least six innings in all eight of his outings. Byrd also holds a 3-2, 4.54 ERA career record against the Red Sox. He is 3-0, 3.97 ERA in May and has very solid road numbers (even though the team is only 1-3 when he starts on the road, coincidentally they won when he wasn't as sharp (at LAA)), 1-1, 3.81 ERA.
Red Sox will send out Daisuke Matsuzaka (7-2, 4.43 ERA), who has 6 wins in last 7 outings but only a 5.17 ERA in the span. However, the team has stepped up for him so far, averaging 11.1 runs in the last 7 Dice-K starts. He is an excellent pitcher, ranks 6th in AL in strikeouts (64), and doesn't give too many walks (he did have huge problems against in his last start against Texas though, but he had stomach problems then), but I'm thinking his W-L record is a bit faltered if you look at how many quality, real quality starts he had. He has a 5.00 ERA at home (.259 BAA compared to road .226) and is 4-0, 4.50 in May.
Boston are on a serious roll right now and I'm looking for it to stop here; think they might have problems against Byrd, and actually don't see the Indians getting swept. Indians' hitters should have their way with Dice-K.
David Ortiz will be back for the Red Sox but I'm thinking he might be a little rusty following a hamstring injury.
Boston offense is hot but I'm looking for Cleveland to step up big tonight. These guys are confident, they're hot, and they should regroup after 2 consecutive losses.
Marlins (Mitre) (2.32 @ Pinnacle) 6 units
Sergio Mitre (2-2, 1.89 ERA) has been outstanding this year, and the Marlins are finding ways to win. What else do you need to put your money on the Fish at this price tonight? This is clear value. "The Cubs can't lose three in a row to the Marlins" - says who?
They can. And if you ask me -they will. You can spank me and call me Lucy but the Cubs are in a hole, they're not showing much these days and the Fish are hitting the ball and playing very well in the field, cutting their errors to minimal.
Ted Lilly (4-2, 3.20), on the other side, will have his nasty curveball on tonight, which could cause problems to the Marlins but there is no way on Earth the Cubs are this favored. This is a classic 50-50 game, the Cubs aren't BoSox so when they need to make a statement or break out of the funk they do it; they're a 22-28 team and that's reality right there.
Dodgers (1.64 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
I think we might have another fade the Nats period, I decided to keep an eye on them waiting for them to cool down and this is where I come in.
The Dodgers won 10-0 last night and even though that kind of game is out of the question tonight I would think the Dodgers win this one by at least 4 runs.
Lowe has been solid so far (4-5, 3.64 ERA), even though his W-L record doesn't show it. I really expect the guys (who are getting hot again) to generate runs for him tonight. Lowe is 2-2, 2.60 ERA in May, and I think he'll keep Nats' bats quiet. Bacsik (1-0, 1.98 ERA) should come down to Earth a bit, after a few solid starts.
These Dodgers are too good for the Nats right now and if the Nats are getting cold again as I think they are, they will probably lose a few more before winning again.
Also looking at:
KC-BAL under 8.5, will probably pull the trigger later on.
Good luck tonight guys, let's make the dough. :cheers: :shake:
Small downtrend, hoping to put a stop to it today. Small review of last night's bets: Mets won kinda luckily, the RL was a big mistake, should've played them on the ML. Atlanta lost in a weird game (around 30 hits if I'm not mistaking), Smoltz got injured, I really hoped that one will cash in. Anyways, let's do the job tonight, several plays I like.
Indians (2.67 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
The books rate this one as a 64%-36% game, and I rate it as a 53%-47% one. The discrepancy is quite substantial and I had to make it a play. The thing is, the Red Sox are on a serious roll...they're 14.5 games ahead of their eternal foes Yankees in the standings, sitting on league's best 36-15 overall record. 21 games above .500 is an outstanding accomplishment for this stage of the season, but the Indians are quite hot as well, 31-19, and have a very solid offense, combined with consistent pitching; one of these consistent pitchers is Paul Byrd (5-1, 3.81 ERA). Byrd has been solid throughout the season so far, and hasn't dropped a decision since April 21. He is 4-0 with a 4.05 ERA in his last six starts, and has lasted at least six innings in all eight of his outings. Byrd also holds a 3-2, 4.54 ERA career record against the Red Sox. He is 3-0, 3.97 ERA in May and has very solid road numbers (even though the team is only 1-3 when he starts on the road, coincidentally they won when he wasn't as sharp (at LAA)), 1-1, 3.81 ERA.
Red Sox will send out Daisuke Matsuzaka (7-2, 4.43 ERA), who has 6 wins in last 7 outings but only a 5.17 ERA in the span. However, the team has stepped up for him so far, averaging 11.1 runs in the last 7 Dice-K starts. He is an excellent pitcher, ranks 6th in AL in strikeouts (64), and doesn't give too many walks (he did have huge problems against in his last start against Texas though, but he had stomach problems then), but I'm thinking his W-L record is a bit faltered if you look at how many quality, real quality starts he had. He has a 5.00 ERA at home (.259 BAA compared to road .226) and is 4-0, 4.50 in May.
Boston are on a serious roll right now and I'm looking for it to stop here; think they might have problems against Byrd, and actually don't see the Indians getting swept. Indians' hitters should have their way with Dice-K.
David Ortiz will be back for the Red Sox but I'm thinking he might be a little rusty following a hamstring injury.
Boston offense is hot but I'm looking for Cleveland to step up big tonight. These guys are confident, they're hot, and they should regroup after 2 consecutive losses.
Marlins (Mitre) (2.32 @ Pinnacle) 6 units
Sergio Mitre (2-2, 1.89 ERA) has been outstanding this year, and the Marlins are finding ways to win. What else do you need to put your money on the Fish at this price tonight? This is clear value. "The Cubs can't lose three in a row to the Marlins" - says who?
They can. And if you ask me -they will. You can spank me and call me Lucy but the Cubs are in a hole, they're not showing much these days and the Fish are hitting the ball and playing very well in the field, cutting their errors to minimal.
Ted Lilly (4-2, 3.20), on the other side, will have his nasty curveball on tonight, which could cause problems to the Marlins but there is no way on Earth the Cubs are this favored. This is a classic 50-50 game, the Cubs aren't BoSox so when they need to make a statement or break out of the funk they do it; they're a 22-28 team and that's reality right there.
Dodgers (1.64 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
I think we might have another fade the Nats period, I decided to keep an eye on them waiting for them to cool down and this is where I come in.
The Dodgers won 10-0 last night and even though that kind of game is out of the question tonight I would think the Dodgers win this one by at least 4 runs.
Lowe has been solid so far (4-5, 3.64 ERA), even though his W-L record doesn't show it. I really expect the guys (who are getting hot again) to generate runs for him tonight. Lowe is 2-2, 2.60 ERA in May, and I think he'll keep Nats' bats quiet. Bacsik (1-0, 1.98 ERA) should come down to Earth a bit, after a few solid starts.
These Dodgers are too good for the Nats right now and if the Nats are getting cold again as I think they are, they will probably lose a few more before winning again.
Also looking at:
KC-BAL under 8.5, will probably pull the trigger later on.
Good luck tonight guys, let's make the dough. :cheers: :shake:
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