MLB Wednesday Maybe + NCAAF maybe not

Wiretowire

Wiretowire

Pretty much a regular
MLB Wednesday +

YTD +307

Yesterday

MLB 1-1 = -.5
NFL 0-1 = -5.5

Cinn/Memphis over 44 1/2 -110 (10 units) (NCAAF)

St Louis ML +110 (10 units)

I will update this when they set the line but the idiot books will make Boston a favorite. Why? Because Boston is at home and leading the series and the books know everyone and their brother just LOVES Boston and will jump on them to close this out Wednesday. Well, not everyone will bet Boston but you understand my point.

The problem is that Wacha is the best pitcher on both teams and he won't lose even in Boston. Making him a dog is a mistake and I will probably go 10 units on him when the line comes out. Lackey just did some relief work and it always surprises me when the coaches do that then trot them out there for their regular start. Some guys change starters when that happens and some guys just figure this is a free game so go get them Lackey. No matter who he faces Wacha should win.

Forget the damn total today. Just walk on by it. If St Louis continues the series as I think they will we will go a total (over) on game #7 and forget the side. I figure the books get beat on St Louis in game #6 then they set a 6 1/2 or 7 total, which is stupidly low, on game #7 and get hammered again. I just love betting baseball.

And if the books are right and Boston does close out the series Wednesday it was fun this year and I hope you made money on baseball. Thanks for listening to my rants and crazy betting style. But I think St Louis will win and there will be, as Vin Scully always says, "One more day of summer" on Thursday. GL
 
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I have Boston +350 for the Series. St Louis is +320 right now. Would you hedge at this point? This series has 7 games written all over it. GL and thanks for your input.
 
Going to cause a stir in here and a lot of head shaking and disagreement but yes I would hedge (But not the way you are thinking). I hear the argument that if you liked the bet to start and then when you gain a real advantage on the door step with the next win winning you money then why hedge? On the surface it looks like a logical question but I totally disagree with the concept. You made the bet to win money. It is looking much better now than when you made it but it is NOT guaranteed money. I assume you put one unit on this series to get +350. Placing another unit on this for St Louis to win the series gets you +320. That means if Boston wins = +250 and if St Louis wins = +220. I will take that. When I gamble I will always take guaranteed money even if it's less and walk away. But that's me.

Now for the capping logic it would probably surprise people to know that I think St Louis will win the world series. Yes, even down 3-2 games. But that doesn't matter because at this point it doesn't matter who wins overall as there is another way to hedge this bet. As I said earlier, I figure Wacha wins game #6 and then who knows. If Wacha is a dog as I think he will be take St Louis to win for 1 unit the next game #6. Do this even if he is even money but not if he is favored by more than -110. If he loses and Boston wins you win the +250 or so for your series. If St Louis and Wacha wins you collect your original risk unit back plus maybe a few bucks but your original Boston series bet at +350 is still alive and well (and unhedged at this point) headed for game #7.

Let's say St Louis does win the next game and you took them for 1 unit. Then there will probably be a way to hedge again, if you wanted to on the final game but that's where the reasoning "If you liked the original bet why change now" has more truth to it especially if you already won back the original risk bet. But I would probably try to find another hedge anyway for me. Hope I didn't confuse you with all this. GL
 
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thx Wire, gotta go with the best pitcher. Agree with the hedge, guaranteed money is never a bad thing
 
Good stuff Wire. Thanks. I was thinking of taking St Louis in Game 6 to cover my Series risk and then just let it ride because I like Boston in game 7 with Peavy.
 
Thanks Hunt. GL

Sounds good Wise. Except I have never heard the words "Peavy" and "Like" used in the same sentence. But he'll probably win just to piss me off. GL :)
 
My final action for mlb 2013 is Bost $100 to win $175 & Stl $50 to win $100. I bet Bost when they were tied 1-1 with Det & later bet Stl when they were down 1-0 to Boston...worst case scenario is even...best case +$125 . Great season Wire, stay healthy...retirement from the work force is getting close. Enjoy!!!
 
Wiretowire said:
Thanks Hunt. GL

Sounds good Wise. Except I have never heard the words "Peavy" and "Like" used in the same sentence. But he'll probably win just to piss me off. GL :)
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i intentionally did that because I knew your distaste for the young man. Lol
 
GL Wire - I am playing STL +110 tonight for a unit and also taking a shot on Cards adjusted series price for a unit at +360. If STL can win tonight which I think they will it opens up some other possibilities tomorrow depending on the extent of the hedge. Figure maybe Peavy and Bost -180 in G7, though hope it is less.
 
Sounds good to me Tim. I would be shocked if Boston was higher than -140 in game 7 no matter what. In fact, I would guess them at -130 to -140 but it also depends on how many runs St Louis scores in #6 (if they win) 4 runs or less and it's -140 Boston #7. 5 runs or more and it will be Boston -120 or -130. But it has to reach game 7 first. GL
 
Wiretowire said:
Sounds good to me Tim. I would be shocked if Boston was higher than -140 in game 7 no matter what. In fact, I would guess them at -130 to -140 but it also depends on how many runs St Louis scores in #6 (if they win) 4 runs or less and it's -140 Boston #7. 5 runs or more and it will be Boston -120 or -130. But it has to reach game 7 first. GL
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Maybe your right on that line being lower, I hope so for my strategy if we get to G7.
 
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