MLB Wednesday: I don't think I've EVER seen anything like this...

[Satyr]

The whole WORLD is loading up on the Cubs. Why?


Because Zambrano got into a fight with Barret and they kissed and made up and now they'll all good to go for a world series run?

LOL. I'm not the biggest fan of the Brew Crew but these guys are playing solid ball again, following a losing streak.

Jeff Suppan (7-5, 3.71) looks to win his fifth straight home start for the Brewers. Since losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers on April 4, Suppan is 4-0 with a 3.26 ERA at Miller Park. He allowed four runs and six hits over seven innings Friday in a 5-4 victory over Florida.

Suppan was outstanding in a 4-1 win over the Cubs on April 24, yielding eight hits in eight scoreless innings with one walk and three strikeouts.

He is 5-4 with a 2.93 ERA in 14 career starts against the Cubs

I've seen something SIMILAR to this (not like this though, the Cubs are on EVERYONE's card, it's like I'm in Hitchcock movie) last night with Florida/Atlanta doubleheader.

Everyone was sooooooooooo convinced Game 1 was going to be easy for Mitre and game 2 will be a stroll in the park for Smoltz. I leaned the other way in BOTH games but had no guts to pull the trigger.

Coming off a bad day last night so my confidence is a bit shaken up, but I won't look for consensus plays or confirmation for my bets, despite the fact I might end up on the losing side at the end of the day.


2 things I CANNOT understand today:

1)Everyone on the Cubs.

2)Yanks 1.70 favs against Vasquez. :an_roll_laugh:
You have got to be kidding me on that one. Of course I'll be on the White Sox. What's next, following a line move, Wang 1.60 at US Cellular field?


Brewers -1 (2.48 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
White Sox ML (2.33 @ Pinnacle) 4 units

if 1 hits I end up in profit. Hoping for a 2-0 though.


No writeups for these two bets, I'll provide some for my late picks. Still undecided on many, a lot of contradicting info and indicators.


GL :cheers:

 

[reNew Orleans]

GL with the plays Satyr, I refuse to touch Cubs n ow unless it's an over at wrigley or fading them.

 

[BigRaktor]

Satyr...I agree...not sure why Cubs get so much love...they kill me whenever I take them, but I play the O everytime Zambrano gasses up the mound.

 

[Satyr]

adding:


Mariners (Washburn) (1.78 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
St Louis (Thompson) (1.85 @ Pinnacle) 6 units
Colorado - Houston over 10 (2.03 @ Pinnacle) 4 units

writeups will be available later.


Good luck tonight. :shake:

 

[Satyr]

good luck ReNew and BigRaktor. :shake:

 

[Retburj13]

so much cubbie action...they are now favs

see brew crew -102 at home now....just don't get it...Carlos can be filthy but imma not sold he has righted the ship yet

gl tonite...like chisox as well

 

[Satyr]

yummy avatar Retburj yummy indeed .

GL tonight :cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

yea I am against you on both and I will give you a little food for thought...

I don't like that I am on the same sides as a lot of people but its just the way things workout, I am not thinking about that..

Why Carlos Zambrano? It has nothing to do with the fight for me. This guy
is erratic, a headcase, a fat shit, etc..

1)He is 4-1 away w/ 3.76era.
2)He comes up big away, W @LAD = 7.2ip, 2er....W @NYM = 8ip, 1er... W @ St Louie = 7ip, 1er.....These are his last 3 road starts and they are surrounded by BAD home starts. Thats just the way this guy is this yr.
3)He is 1-0 w/ 3.75era in 12ip, 10h, 5er, 5bb, 13k, they are a young lineup that he really can control.
4)He has to limit his walks and HR'S, he has given up 9hr's away this yr.
5)Cubs offense is starting to hit a little.
6)Suppan is good pitcher and 1-0 vs. Cubs this yr but hasn't been good as of late...4,4,4,3,4er in his last 5 starts. That won't get the job done today. Of course you can throw that Zambrano hasn't been good either.
7)Cubs NEED this game more than the Brewers, yes they do.
8) At +money got the Ace of the Cubs in a must win for his team..


Now onto the Yanks..

I have them as well..Jeter was 0-13 slump, Abreu and Cano weren't hitting anything and now these 3 guys are starting to swing the bat. The WSux are in bad shape right now, worse shape than the Yankees, they are 2-8 in their last 10, Yanks are 4-6.

When you talking about backing the WSox, you are talking bout Vazquez, a pitcher who doesnt fare well vs. NY.

1-2, 5.00era, 3g, 18ip, 20h, 12bb, 20k

You are talking about a WORSE bullpen than the Yankees.

Lastly you are talking about an Offense that disappears for large portions of the game.

Since the Yanks have won 4 of their last 6, they average 7 runs per game.

WSox average 3runs per game in that same span of 6 games and are 2-4.

What exactly do you like about the WSox right now. They can't beat the Yanks Rookie in Clippard and DelSalvo did a good job of setting them up nice in game 1 on short notice.

This is for the series, the Yanks have to start winning these things and they send out Wang...

1-0 w/ 1.29, 7ip, 1er, 6h, 1bb this yr vs. WSux
1-0 w/3.75, 2g, 12ip, 13h, 3bb in his career.

Overall, it might be public as hell but they are not wrong every day on every play.

GL

 

[Satyr]

Green, ok, I'm obviously a fan of your capping. And I read your stuff every day. And I feel dumb writing about a game now that it's underway, but I will anyway, won't check the score while I do it.

Why Carlos Zambrano? It has nothing to do with the fight for me. This guy
is erratic, a headcase, a fat shit, etc..

I agree, but that's not why I'm fading him.

1)He is 4-1 away w/ 3.76era.
2)He comes up big away, W @LAD = 7.2ip, 2er....W @NYM = 8ip, 1er... W @ St Louie = 7ip, 1er.....These are his last 3 road starts and they are surrounded by BAD home starts. Thats just the way this guy is this yr.
3)He is 1-0 w/ 3.75era in 12ip, 10h, 5er, 5bb, 13k, they are a young lineup that he really can control.

Ok, I can't argue with the numbers. But these are the CHICAGO CUBS you're talking about. A clueless, overrated bunch. Zambrano has been solid at times, but he's far from being unhittable. Especially for the Brew Crew who have a couple of power hitters and can challenge him.

Btw, you want Suppan's numbers, I quoted some shit from ESPN in my first post.

5)Cubs offense is starting to hit a little.

Yeh sorry I don't buy it. Nothing actually warrants such a HUGE support the Cubs are getting.

6)Suppan is good pitcher and 1-0 vs. Cubs this yr but hasn't been good as of late...4,4,4,3,4er in his last 5 starts. That won't get the job done today. Of course you can throw that Zambrano hasn't been good either.
7)Cubs NEED this game more than the Brewers, yes they do.
8) At +money got the Ace of the Cubs in a must win for his team..

1)I don't buy "must win situations". A ballgame is a ballgame. Ok you can factor in when a team is fired up, motivated, etc...but the Cubs were that last night as well. Nothing changed since.

That won't get the job done? 4,4,4,3,4? What are the Cubs, the Red Sox? Big Z can let in more than 4 alone, not to mention Cubs' pen.

So I disagree.


Onto the Yanks...I'll ask you one question buddy. Should the Yanks BE FAVORED at this extent tonight just because they got some offensive groove going on?

The White Sox lack chemistry, they lack consistency, they're shite. But so are the Yanks.

And everyone seems to be sitting and waiting until the Yanks start turning their season around. Why wouldn't White Sox start doing the same?

Honestly, I don't like either team this year, both are underachieving bunches, but you cannot give me 2.33 on Vasquez at home.

Nevermind the record against NYY, nevermind everything. Common sense says I cannot accept that .


Anyways, you know I'll be the first to congratulate you Cubs and Yanks winners if it hits. Just my perception of things that makes me stake on the opposite.

GL tonight Green. :cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

I was thinking Wanger -130 was fine, -146 is a little much but I was already locked in last night at -135 for some stake so had to get the rest in today.

Valid points above, Zambrano is a shithead, plain and simple and the Cubs are a skitzo team..A true crapshoot

GL today

 

[Satyr]

now now...who would've thought Suppan is in hunt for the Gas can of the week title, 2nd inning, 4-0. .

You guys look safe at the moment. :shake:

 

[E.T.G.]

haha i wouldnt feel safe if it was 12-0 CUBS

 

[Satyr]

Let me focus on my late plays:

Mariners (Washburn) (1.78 @ Pinnacle) 7 units

At first I thought ok skipping this one. But that was just first glance. Further analysis implied that the price on Seattle is an absolute steal.
They have both Beltre and Sexson questionable but why would anyone worry if a guy hitting .194 is going to be in the lineup. Beltre will be missed.
So Baltimore are firing on all cylinders and will finally steal a win after getting torched in the late innings two nights in a row, right?

If you ask me, wrong. First of, their bullpen is just horrid. Confidence level must be higher only compared to Corcoran and TB pen minus Al Reyes.
Secondly, they're on a downslide for a reason. The O's are a typical home team, and they've been on the road for a while now, they need a couple of homestands to get back to their rhythm.
Also note, they will miss their leadoff hitter Brian Roberts tonight, a guy who was totally hot for a while now, creating excellent chances for the core of the lineup in Tejada, Markakis and Mora.
Now they'll be without him. Ok he hasn't fared well against Washburn anyway.

Now onto the pitching duel: Washburn (5-4, 3.57 ERA) has his ERA lower by the whole run compared to Cabrera (4-6, 4.72 ERA) and both guys have fared very well against the bats they're going to face tonight:

Cabrera is 4-0 with a 2.62 ERA in five career starts against Seattle, winning both of his outings at Safeco Field.
However, Marines' southpaw is 5-0 with a 3.09 ERA in his last seven starts against Baltimore. He hasn't lost to the Orioles since Sept. 17, 1999.

The M's are hot, they've got a slightly better pitcher on the mound and they're going into this one with full confidence after posting two consecutive comebacks. I don't expect them to trail as much nor as long tonight.



other writeups coming up later...

 

[daytonavol]

I was on the Cubs because they are actually showing some heart lately, and this is a "step up or step out" game for Z; am looking at Seattle, glad to see you on them.

 

[Satyr]

the Brewers aren't even in this one. 0 hits. Suppan 0 Ks. Says enough really.


Daytona, M's are my favorite team and I'd like to think I have a good feel on them. I like what they've been doing in the past weeks, the chemistry, the way they're hitting the ball, and how they've been posting comeback wins, kinda never say die attitude which I like. Now they're 5 games above .500 and I don't think they'll be complacent or anything, they're the better team here, better pen, better lineup and if you ask me - a slightly better pitcher.

Going with the hot team. :shake:

STL writeup coming up...

 

[Fondybadger]

Still think the Brewers put up a few runs in this game. 3 or 4 at least...

 

[Satyr]

Updating:

MLB 2007: 85 W-7V-71 L +76.22 units

Got absolutely shelled last night, -14 units. Now -4 with the Brewers...

Hopefully I'll turn it around as the day goes by. :shake:

 

[Satyr]

Still think the Brewers put up a few runs in this game. 3 or 4 at least...

you mean just to tease their backers and fans? no thanks, I'll pass illow:


Only in case you're on the over, I can tolerate it in that case . 'an_horse'

 

[Satyr]

MLB 2007: 85 W-7V-71 L +76.22 units

Got 4 units in play (Brewers, not looking good)
7 on Seattle.

Moving on:


Cardinals (Thompson) (1.85 @ Pinnacle) 7 units (added a unit)

Brad Thompson (4-1, 4.37 ERA) not only looks like a cartoon character, he looks like a female cartoon character. But Brad Thompson is 4-1 this year, and feels good pitching at home.
The Cards are struggling to get some of that championship spirit back into the team, and I think their first goal (reaching .500) will be done within a week. Two tops.
The Reds have had varying success off him this year (both relief appearances), but that's not even a representative pattern so won't comment on that one.
What I will comment on is Bronson Arroyo (2-6, 4.73 ERA) and his abysmal season.
Arroyo hasn't won since May 6, going 0-4 with a 8.28 ERA in his last five starts. He has given up at least six runs in each of his last three outings. He has been on my fade list for a while now, and I don't rate him highly, never did.
The Cincinnati Reds can only hope they won't be the worst team in the NL when season finishes, even though the Nats seemed to be a "lock" for that honor, the Reds are a serious threat to them.
St Louis just seems to have lifted themselves from the ashes, and we're talking in the middle of quite a nasty situation, half of their team has been sidelined and/or battling injuries.
But now they're clicking again, even though it's far from world series form, it's a clear uptrend, while I can't notice anything similar in the Reds' squad.
Redbirds seem to be scoring for Thompson, I don't see it changing tonight. Love the price.


White Sox (Vasquez) (2.32 @ Pinnacle) 4 units

Purely a play on the price. I don't think this one even needs a preview next to it. Not because it's some world class play, but mainly because I will only spend time explaining how I can't picture Wang a 1.70 favorite at US Cellular field, not against Vasquez.

I'm aware Vasquez (3-3, 3.95 ERA) doesn't fare well against his former team (1-2, 5.00 ERA), and I'm fully aware the White Sox are 2-8 in last 10 and one of the coldest teams in the AL, but I also think that if they are going to step up, they are going to do it tonight.
The Yanks are hitting. Gee. Does that mean we should take them no matter the price? Well I won't. They're coming together but it's a normal process after hitting rock bottom, even behind Tampa Bay Devil Rays at some point. There's no worse than that, you can only go up from there.

Both teams in similar situations, in dire need of wins, and fast. Vasquez is coming off an impressive performance against Toronto, and I think he'll be inspired to keep his game at that level.
Wang (4-4, 4.19 ERA) limited CWS to only 1 run in Yanks' 8-1 win at US Cellular field earlier this year, but that doesn't mean he can just duplicate such performance. Ok the White Sox are far from their best days but so are the Yanks. This price is outrageous, and I have to take a stab, no matter the form or team situations.


Colorado - Houston (over 10) (1.95 @ Pinnacle) 4 units

I'll be brief: Even though Coors isn't as hitters' friendly park as it used to be, it can still be a stage for a slugfest. Especially if you see the pitching duel here.
Aaron Cook isn't a home pitcher. Cook is 2-2 with a 5.84 ERA in six home starts this season, compared with a 2-0 record and 2.98 ERA in six road outings. His sinkerball wasn't as effectively hit by the Astros so far but I don't think he will be as effective tonight.

He is however, 3-0 with a 3.91 ERA in four career starts and a relief appearance versus Houston, but I feel the Astros are finally connecting some hits, starting to lift themselves from the mud they've been stuck in for a while now. This team can be so soulless at times. But they do have potential to rise a bit, as a response to the horrid losing streak.

The Rockies, on the other side, have allowed 33 runs in their last 6 games.
Houston will give the ball to Woody Williams (2-7, 5.50 ERA), who is 3-4 with a 7.90 ERA in 15 starts against the Rockies and 1-2 with a 14.90 ERA in seven starts at Coors Field. He has surrendered six runs or more in each of his last six outings in Colorado.

The right-hander, who has struggled in his first season pitching in his hometown of Houston, earned a rare win Thursday, giving up two runs and seven hits while striking out a season-high nine in five innings to beat Cincinnati 10-2.

Williams had been 0-2 with a 7.31 ERA in his previous three outings.
I don't think further explanation is in order, these bats should come to life against these two gas cans and put some runs on the board. Keeping my stakes low since I had a similar feeling last night and we know what happened there.

 

[blownaway]

GL buddy...........I dont like taking the over on the Stros because watching our offense is like pulling teeth......Love the M's also

GO SPURS!

 

[Satyr]

if you guys don't hit Cook you can pack it in for the season .



Anyways, GL tonight. Let's cash these M's. :cheers:

 

[tuck321]

Personally just hoping Colorado gets enough runs off Woodie for us both to win as I am playing Colorado. GL

 

[Satyr]

congrats all Cubs and Yankee backers, man was I wrong there.
:shake:

-10 units for the day...the slide continues...I need a bounceback performance, hopefully tomorrow is the night.

GL.

 

[E.T.G.]

keep your head up, shit will turnaround in no time

 

[Satyr]

thanks bro :shake: I know it will turn around, I'm just saying, would be nice to have a winning night tomorrow...I'll adjust my approach a bit, seemingly I'm in a small funk. Need a fresh approach, I'll cut the number of plays a bit and see what happens.

:shake:

 

[reNew Orleans]

take it slow and steady. don't get out of control there buddy. maybe a day off tear clear your mind will help, lets you feel fresh. Weird things are going to begin to happen now it's the middle of baseball season. you'll bounce back for sure.

 

[Unicorn]

Satyr - you might just take a day or two off, to relax a bit and clear up your mind. Just remember - there's no pressure, no need to play every day if you don't really like the choice. I'm sure you'll turn it around, buddy, it's a no brainer.

:cheers:

 

[Satyr]

thanks for the advice /support guys :shake:

I'll definitely consider of resting for a while if my "cut down the number of plays" strategy doesn't work in the next 2 or 3 days.

:cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

Satyr - I am on the Action diet as well! lol