MLB Wednesday early leans/discussion

Satyr

Paster of Muppets
MLB 2007: 61 W-5V-46 L +85.28 units

2-1-0 yesterday, the TB bet was void (2-2 after 5 thanks to Sexson :eek: RBI ) SF & Halos did the job.

Leans 1-1, Mets screwed it up, White Sox cashed in (had them in a double).


As some of you know, tonight (central european time) is the Champions League final between my boys Liverpool FC and the Italian side AC Milan.
So I might not be fully operational :D once the final is over. I wanted to go to Athens so badly, but had some obligations at the uni so couldn't. Tough luck.

Anyways, here's to Liverpool. COME ON RED MEN, let's make it SIX after tonight. History is being made ladies and gents. :cheers:

Let's get to business. A small note, these are only leans so far, initial knee jerk reaction.



White Sox (Garland) (-2/adjusted runline 3.16 :eek: @ Pinny)

I'm looking at this one hard. How can you not like the White Sox the way they've been hitting? These guys are KILLING the ball as they should have done since day one of the season. With Thome back and hitting the ball I'm thinking they are heating up BIG.
Garland has improved (from 0-2 to 3-2, wins against NYY, KC and LAA, 3-0, 2.01 ERA in May, the team is putting runs on the board for him after a while, and most of all the White Sox bats are SIZZLING.
Get them while they're still not too pricy.
This price is outrageous. I know the Sox are supposed to win by 3 in order for this one to cash in and Gaudin has been solid but Oaktown still have pen problems, they're missing several guys from the lineup. I'm thinking, if Gaudin gets torched early, they will have to get their pen to work and they can't afford that.
All I'm saying is this price is ridiculous.



Marlins (Kim) (2.11 @ Pinnacle)

Yeah, go on and think Byung Hyun Kim is a bum. I won't. This guy is severely underrated. I remember him at Colorado, he was solid at times, even though this year he started in the minors, he is quite an experienced pitcher. Just because he has a bloated ERA at this point of the season doesn't mean he's a disastrous pitcher. He is 2-2 this year with a 7.15 ERA, and I'm thinking he's getting used to the team and the teammates and is ready to make a fresh start.
Philly couldn't win last night with their best pitcher on the mound, and I'm not going to put my trust in the hands of Freddy Garcia (1-3, 4.86 ERA). His forte are day starts, and this is a night road game.
He already got the win against Florida this season, but allowed 7 hits in 4.2 innings of work, equaling in 4 earned runs.
I just can't see beyond this dog price on a hot team playing at home.
What makes Freddy and the Phillies favs here?



Tough game in Detroit, I know Colon has been solid but I can't back him on the road at Comerica not right now, perhaps I'll change my view as day goes on, but at the moment I'm not into this one. I won't back Durbin either. Probably a no play.


Red Sox with Schilling could be a compelling bet, more than anything because the whole world will be on the Yankees with these familiar phrases "oh Yankees need it more, oh Yankees want it more". Forget all that. Bloody Sock smells blood. Forget his road woes this year, these are the Yanks. Pettitte has been solid against a leftie killing lineup at Shea, but who says he won't let in a few against Youkillis, Big Papi and Manny?
Can anyone tell me what was the line last night, did 7-3 Boston go over or was it a push?
The Yankees just lack quality at the moment. Why forcing something when you're obviously getting ripped? These are all big names in the lineup but they're not clicking at the moment. Laying anything on them right now is not my cup of tea. I'll take the plus money.


That's it for now. Do share your thoughts please, I still have to look at all these things in depth and check various stats before pulling the trigger on anything.


:cheers:
 
Satyr, I'm on AC and over tomorrow. Liverpool is done with league plays, they haven't played any game since 5/13; while AC played on saturday and still have one more game to go this sunday, but they are already set for either 3rd or 4th in the league, no real difference.

So both teams are going to put full effort into this match, I think the long rest may work against liverpool actually. 8 out last 10 final games have had a total goal of 2 or more. So I really like the over here, looking out for AC's revenge also. One caution though, pinny has the over at 2 -110, a bit too low too fishy.

On to baseball, I too look for the white sox to sweep the A's tomorrow, as both team have the next day off. Gaudin's number isn't too bad 23 ip last 4 games giving up 11 runs; while Garland is much more impressive 22 ip last 3 games, giving up just 5 runs. Garland has an OPS of .724 agains A's bat in 217 AB. There isn't enough AB for Gaudin (just 24) to indicate anything. But with the way CWS is playing the last few days, I look for them to get at least 5 runs out of him.

Don't know about the other two.
 
You bring up some real good points on the Philadelphia game. Points I didn't even notice or research. Thanks for pointing these out and saving me from losing some dough.
 
There won't be too many times this year where Curt Schilling will be an underdog. Don't be afraid to make that bet.
 
I would avoid Florida today. Timmons is somewhat a homer ump which should help Florida and I have always liked Kim but its a little more complicated then that and the night day angle. I believe the last 5 times Hamels has lost Phillie has bounced back with a win. Last 20 Kim is 8-12 at home to Garcia 12-8 away. It is a strong Covers chart play on Phillie and Phillie has been strong on the road Wednesdays going 14-6 last 20. Garcia is actually showing signs of inprovement and it would not surprise me to see a strong outing today. Phillie has a emotional block when they hit 500 but that was yesterday and they may need this game to avoid a sweep as Willis is 8-3 at home vs Phillie. Have not looked at the other games yet. GL
 
Jack, all I see tonight is a 50-50 game. Hence no one should be favored, at least not this much. Over? Could be, but I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't. Tough call, clear no bet for me.

I'll probably be on the White Sox as well. Good luck.

Ray, yep, forgot that stat. Amazing. :shake:


Houghton, :shake: GL tonight.


Handy, I agree. :shake:
 
I would avoid Florida today. Timmons is somewhat a homer ump which should help Florida and I have always liked Kim but its a little more complicated then that and the night day angle. I believe the last 5 times Hamels has lost Phillie has bounced back with a win. Last 20 Kim is 8-12 at home to Garcia 12-8 away. It is a strong Covers chart play on Phillie and Phillie has been strong on the road Wednesdays going 14-6 last 20. Garcia is actually showing signs of inprovement and it would not surprise me to see a strong outing today. Phillie has a emotional block when they hit 500 but that was yesterday and they may need this game to avoid a sweep as Willis is 8-3 at home vs Phillie. Have not looked at the other games yet. GL

Ok, several thoughts from me:

Last 20 Kim home games are insignificant. He changed ballclubs (and BALLPARKS) since then, and his last 20 probably go back to 2005.

Garcia away, ok. But that was AL as well. He was supposed to bring his A game in the NL but so far he hasn't.

Wednesday road trend: sorry I don't buy it. What does that say to us? that they can be either 15-6 or 14-7 after tonight. And what will change? It's just a trend that occurred, nothing serious. Unless they get some special pills ONLY on Wednesdays :D

The day after Hamels loses bounceback might have some significance but in my eyes, not an essential stat.

Also, ALL things you mentioned are carved into the line. Now if you're trying to hit a winner, then ok. But if you're looking for a fair line, then I disagree. Philly road favs with Garcia?
With Hamels ok, I agree, but Garcia?
 
Hmm, here's what I'm thinking about tonight's games:

Yankees vs Boston
Both Schill and Pettitte got rocked this season by the opposite team, but unlike Curt who had faced Yankees only once so far, Pettitte pitched vs Sox three times already and got only 1 loss to show for it. Considering Boston swept Yankees in NY earlier this season and so far we got 1-1 series result with NY showing some strong effort in game 1, I'm slightly leaning towards the Yankees in this one, although it won't be easy for any team to win tonight - I can foresee a real battle coming...


Texas vs Minnesota
I'm thinking about Twins in this one. They're playing better lately, and their tonight's SP, Boof Bonser is coming off a 11-strikeout performance vs Brewers in Milwaukee. Plus he's won his last 2 starts what should be a good confidence builder. I see no reason why Rangers with Tejeda are favored this much for this game. A great Value bet from my perspective and a play I'd definitely recommend.


LA Dodgers vs Milwaukee
Well, I see a nice Value on the Brewers tonight. While I've actually expected from Dodgers to win last night, they had a very hard time to do so. Both teams had 4 hits each and it was a 1-run game with some nice pitching performance(s). Tonight we got 2 SP's with very similar season stats but with 1 difference - while Chris Capuano had some nice success vs Dodgers in the past (2.93 ERA), the same could not be said for Brad Penny and his 5.65 ERA vs them, despite a 2-2 record. Considering recent bounce-back factor by Milwaukee and recent form of the both teams, we may see another close game tonight, but I expect the Brewers to be on the winning side this time.



That's all I like for tonight, there are a few more interesting games like Royals-Indians and Cards-Pirates with ex-opposing team pitchers starting for both home teams so it will be interesting to see who'll be on the winning side in those games. Sometimes pitcher is in advantage but more often it's the ex-team who's the one ending up on the winning side (anyone remember A's vs Zito several days ago?) ;)


BOL everyone! Satyr - nice capping these days! Read ya all in a few days, taking a break during the week, probably going to be back in action on Friday, definitely on Saturday!
:cheers:
 
pulling the trigger (so far) on:

Florida ML (2.12 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
White Sox (3.31 @ Pinnacle) (-2/adjusted runline) 4 units


writeups available in the initial post. GL tonight guys.


COME ON RED MEN!!!!!!! GO LIVERPOOL
 
I like the WSOX Tonight too, not a good thing for you at all but almost done looking at the game
 
hey satyr.. first let me say gooo liverpool
2nd how do u think of Bal RL i mean as a fan from TO... jus watching Mgcowan or whatever his name is picth is just bad.. he has soo much taleent... if he just had more control... whgat is ur lean?
 
hey satyr.. first let me say gooo liverpool
2nd how do u think of Bal RL i mean as a fan from TO... jus watching Mgcowan or whatever his name is picth is just bad.. he has soo much taleent... if he just had more control... whgat is ur lean?

You need to take serious consideration when thinking of Balt RL. They are bad on offense, they are terrible in the bullpen, and any lead they might build will never be safe.. Just throwing a word of caution out there
 
ya i no... but the way trachsel is pitching.. espcially aespiclly agaisn the jays... only chris ray might be pitching.. but ta i see ur pt
 
Thanks guys. Well my boys lost. It was a solid game though. Check out my post match comment in the soccer section. The ones interested of course.

:shake: GL tonight.
 
wow...can't believe that Florida will drop the game after scoring 4 runs in the 9th alone to make it 7-7.

What a game. You lost it. Oh wait! You're going to win it. Nope. Sorry. Lost it anyways. Oh well. Come again.


:D.
 
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 0 1 0 1 0 0 3 1
0 1 0 1 0 0 0 4 0


R H E
8 12 0
7 12 3


:an_roll_laugh:
 
Should've stayed in bed today.

1)Liverpool lost

....
....
....
674)My Liverpool to win Champions League bet at odds 23.40 is worthless now :D.
675)White Sox lost (had a bet on them)
676)Florida lost in a SICK SICK WAY.
677)Had a double PIT + Halos for a unit. Both lost.
678)Had a double Mets + Florida to save the day.


As I said, should have stayed in bed. :D
 
Btw, don't think I'm saying Florida should have won in the first place, I'm saying: THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE TEASED ME :D. Nothing else. Just lose the damn game. I didn't care up to the point it was 7-5 with zero outs and a runner on 1st (I think).

Why getting me involved again :D.
 
Btw, don't think I'm saying Florida should have won in the first place, I'm saying: THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE TEASED ME :D. Nothing else. Just lose the damn game. I didn't care up to the point it was 7-5 with zero outs and a runner on 1st (I think).

Why getting me involved again :D.


It was exciting ,wasnt it? :P
 
or heartbreaking

I agree Satyr, sort of like Pitt tonight..Lose the game 4-0, don't score 2 the inning after they just hit a 2run homer, then score 1 to make it 4-3, then leave a guy on third and give up another run in the 8th to make it 5-3.. I had it marked as a loss after the 4th inning, all Pitt did was make me waste another 1.5hours of my life because I had a 10% chance of winning.
 
Horrid stuff as well, Green.


Btw, look at this:

Kim avoided hurting any of the Phillies -- barely. He flung his bat into the Philadelphia dugout when he swung at a pitch and missed in the third. In the fourth he made a putout at first to retire Victorino, who then ran into Kim and went tumbling up the foul line.


:an_roll_laugh:
 
Still didn't go to sleep :D :D

El Mago, thanks for the support bro, but the bummer is, this was a lethal combination of an emotional + financial letdown. Ok I did win quite enough this season (+260 units since 1.12.2006. overall), but I still went like 0/5 today out of ALL things I could've possibly hit I hit exactly ZERO :D.


First the game (Liverpool), ok who cares I had a 1 unit bet to win 22.40 units, I surely didn't. I remembered that hours after. But these are my boys, my team. They lose the game. Crap. Ok after a few more (for some consolation for others celebration) beers we all headed home, I sat down in front of my computer thinking, if I hit ANY of these bets I'll be fine. Really. I just need a hit. Confidence booster of some kind. Anything.

Out of 2 singles and 2 doubles I managed to hit NONE :D.

And then Florida pulls out a stunt like that, had they won I would've cashed them on a single and a double.

So double frustration there LOL. :D


Anyways, now I'm really off to bed. Can't watch any more. 5.40 AM.

See ya.
 
Well, shit happens, man but I'm sure you'll be ok.

The most important thing is not to force anything...

I'm sorry about the guys in Red, nice game though.

Cheers!
 
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