MLB Wednesday 9/21

[Wiretowire]

YTD +121.5
MLB 2-1 yesterday

OK, something has been bugging me recently. I just rewatched the movie 21. I like that movie so I have seen it many times. But the basic principal for that movies has me puzzled and has for years since I heard about blackjack card counting.

The concept is that there are multiple decks of cards and you should track (count) the cards played to see when the deck goes positive in your favor. The deck goes positive when there are more high cards left in the shoe than there are low cards. This can result in a "count" that is plus (as in +16) more big cards than small. When the count goes in your favor you increase your bets as in the movies calls in the big bettor to the table to take advantage of the more high cards so you can win. I am fine with all this to this point except for one small thing. In the movie they show the bettors hitting 20's and blackjack after blackjack while the dealer gets 15's and busts all the time or some such shit. That's all well and good for Hollywood but herein lies my problem.

People always talk about how wonderful card counting is for the bettor and how awful it is for the casino. But is it really? Think about it. If the deck is full of high cards and the bettor should therefore get good hands why won't the dealer get good hands as well? And if both the dealer and the player get high cards there is an advantage to the dealer as ties push where the player has to beat the dealer.

Although I will agree they changed from a single deck to multiple decks of cards. This has always made me wonder if card counting isn't a myth the casinos want you to believe in. Thoughts?

All for 5 units each.

StL/Colo under 12 1/2

CHW/Phil over 7 -140

KC/Cle over 7 -140

GL

 

[The Farm]

Wire, first off BOL with your action today. As far as counting goes, I believe the average bettor just looks for any advantage over the house. I agree that a deck left with high cards enables both bettor and or dealer to make a hand. I have seen both results. Most recently two good friends sit down at a 100 BJ table with 500 each and walk away with over 15k each as I counted with ridiculous odds for high cards in favor. When the count was extremely high I openly told them to increse their best while 2 pit bosses watched and joked around not cAring at all. IN THE LONG RUN, both of these two returned to the casinos multiple times and gave back all 30k plus at least 25k more. Part of me agrees that the casinos don't care if you win or count because most bettors are weak and will always return regardless if they win or lose.

 

[wiseplayer]

Look at the casinos built and comps given and you'll see who has the advantage. Let's not forget the mental aspect of what happens on a bad beat. It's people that go on tilt, not the casino. Ultimately the casino has the bigger bankroll than the player to win out. Playing at the tables is like always being the short stack at the poker table. You're not coming out ahead without a miracle. 1 chip vs 1 million chips is a losing proposition coming out the gate.

 

[Metallica]

GL today Bro.

 

[Wiretowire]

Interesting farm. Thanks for the feedback. GL

Thanks Wise. Good points and I agree. If I have a run of losing at craps or video poker I have trouble avoiding tilt and trying to win it all back now. GL

Thanks Metallica. GL

 

[wiseplayer]

Exactly. We're in a crazy habit my friend. I have to keep reminding myself that it's more about having action then it is to make a living. This hobby of ours is more likely to make us go broke then make us anything substantial. I like to feel I have control over this. I never go to the tables because it's just not a winning situation. Good topic!

 

[C-MAN]

I might be wrong, but think it is just the (prob)ability to predict what the next card will be that is the advantage. So if you have 12 against a dealer 13 (and the card count is +16) you should double down and there is a better chance the dealer will bust than if the card could was -16 and there were a bunch of low cards floating around in the deck. Since you have the option (and the dealer does not) you can basically force the dealer to take the hit which has a high probability of being a bust card.

 

[C-MAN]

By the way, I have tried this system in the casino and the results have not been any better than when I just played. Maybe I'm just not good at it...

 

[Wiretowire]

True Wise. I try to head for the bar when I want to head for the tables to "get my money back." GL

Good point Cman. I didn't think of it that way and there has to be some good truth to that. Thanks. GL

 

[BJPLAYER]

been counting for many years.....the strategy is based on the laws of probability and I use Ken Uston's simple + - system with a quasi count of the 5-6-7-8 cards which represent the core (middle) of the deck and like 10's when these cards are drawn from the deck the advantage switches to the player. BJ is the only game in the house where the player can create an advantage for himself over the house and that advantage can only be obtained from keeping track of whats been drawn from the deck and establishing the advantage based on that information. The only other game where the player can create an advantage is sports betting and ponies where there is enough data available to recognize a house mistake or horse odds if you are smart enough and work hard enough....these are the only two games i ever play in a casino, every thing else is a losing proposition. That being said, counting requires a lot of practice and it has to be accurate and the advantage only swings 1.5% either side of even, maybe 2 if you use advanced systems which i do not because they are to difficult to track in real time. So the bottom line is that it is a game that you can effectively win over the long term but it takes effort, training and practice. It took me 4-5 years to get to the point where i was confident that i had an advantage and i have spent the rest of the time trying to avoid being spotted. If anyone is going to the casino for 3-7 days their outcome is going to be more predicated by the cards they are dealt not their proficiency at playing but you can certainly have more winning weekends than not by employing good strategy.And don't think for a minute that casinos don't care if you are keeping track,if they suspect that you can and are counting and have the ability to beat them they will show you the door in a heartbeat, i know i've been there and it sucks. I only play at the bigger establishments as they are more liberal and i only play center strip vegas 2 deck games (best odds) where the cut penetration allows me to see enough cards to establish reasonable advantage (about 80%).....my two cents.....best of luck at the tables.....best advice i can give you, walk away from a hot dealer and find another table

 

[CenTexGambler]

GL today Wire. I like both of your Over plays but have been leaning Over in STL/COL as well.

I too have made a few trips and put my counting skills to the test. Back in the day, when I was young and cool (now I'm just cool) I was not bad at all. I got into some heat at the old favorite Stardust when I was approached by 'security' and asked to step away from the table for a discussion. Back then it was easy to sit at a single or double deck pitch table. The guys asked who I was with and some normal Hassling questions. I basically tried avoiding their questions and that started to go bad for me so I asked them to call my Host. Back before casinos used Player Cards it was the Pit Bosses that kept track of your action, but I did have a gold VIP card at the Stardust. Once these backroom enforcers saw that I was a regular with heavy enough play to have a Host and a gold VIP they turned their attention to whoever it was on their radio earpiece. I had about $11K in front of me. Told my host that I was insulted and felt like I was being handled like a lowdown degenerate gambler (which I was, but I was also a winner - there's is a difference!) Told him I was cashing in and going down the street to play....but I didn't. Stardust was the spot back then especially for sports bettors. I miss the Stardust....I was always put in a 2 story suite with 2 or 3 bedrooms, poolside, with a spiral staircase and a formal dining area with a table for 20. Those were the days my friend! Now days they look for the cheats who are savvy with all the electronic abled devices.....If I ever tried to count on a 6 or 8 deck auto shuffle I'd probably lose my mind and my money! GL on the action Wire.....don't like the over in COL huh?

 

[Play2win]

GL Wire

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks BJ. Good stuff. Most don't realize that 2% advantage is very big in the long run. GL

Centex, I had the same kind of thing going at the Riviera with the hosts and rooms. But I cheated as the old financial officer there was a friend of my dads so it wasn't based on play. It took Caesars and video poker to establish my play and comps. As for Colo over I saw solid pitching from starters and 13 runs to beat me was pretty good leeway. Easy to say now though as it is in the 7th with 7 runs scored. Could still beat me but it is shaping up the way I saw it. One thing though, I'm not sure these young bucks in here realize how cool us old guys really are. GL

Thanks Play. GL

 

[tuck321]

Expecting good pitching from the Card starter is---amazing. Hope you get it. GL

 

[cashflowmatters]

Keep up the solid work!!!