MLB Wednesday 5/25

[Wiretowire]

YTD +2710
7-1 last

Thanks Inzane. GL

All x50 each overs -140

Colo +2 1/2 -260 - This is a bad bet because Thompson is solid for the Pirates. The problem is that when and if Pitt actually does win a game it is always a squeaker. I'll try the runs here betting into the unknown. I told you it was a bad bet. My advice is you ignore this one.
Detroit +2 1/2 -180 - It may not win but at least this one makes sense to take the runs. Garcia is a reliever making a start which is always a crapshoot but Bundy really isn't very good. What doesn't make sense is why Bundy is a -190 favorite. -130 or -140 ok, but damn.
Mets/SF over 6 1/2 - Same as yesterday offenses can find 3 runs each with these pitchers.
LA ML -200 - Urias a lot more solid and can go more innings with a shit ton less walks than Fedde. Do you really want to walk a lot of Dodgers?
Oak/Sea over 6 1/2 - Blackburn will give you a couple but the real story is the incredible disappointment Ray has been. He could give the A's 7 runs themselves.
NYY ML -170 - Who the hell is Spears? I know he's the new pitcher the Yanks exploded for offensively and gave him the win.

That's it for today. I really think Hou will beat Cle but Quantrill isn't horrible and Javier's second start back scares me. But if you want value take Cle because Hou shouldn't be a -200 favorite in this spot. I just can't ever bet Cle ML but they will win some games. GL

 

[cashflowmatters]

Keep up the nice work W2W

 

[2daBank]

Has Ray really been that bad? That A’s lineup having another day scoring that many seems unlikely to me, that lineup just isn’t very good, I was looking at them the other day and struggled to find guys with even a .700 ops! They don’t have any hitter that strikes fear!

Ray’s velo a bit down and for some reason he basically been a 2 pitch pitcher this year, not sure why he has chosen to all but abandoned throwing curve or change at all? He always been primarily fastball/slider but he had the threat of being able to throw something else and showed them enough; before last year he at least threw something other than those 2 pitches more than 15% of the time, last year he was up to throwing fastball/slider 90% the time, and now this season he up to 98% fastball/slider! Losing a bit of velo on the heater and not having another pitch for hitters to think about isnt a great mix. That said for the most part what I have noticed with him is he has 1 awful crooked number inning in every start! Rest the time he still looks pretty good. Certainly not saying I hate the ovsr more just trying to figure out what going on with Ray. He dominated A’s last year, in 12.2 innings over 2 games he had 19 punch outs and only allowed 3 runs basically throwing the same 2 pitch mix and against what I think we agree a better lineup than A’s have now after the fire sale.

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks Cash. I appreciate it. GL

Bank, Ray has allowed 47 hits and 29 runs with 20 walks in 53 innings. He has a really bad 4.77 era. He is 4-4. The problem we have as fans is that we see Ray has, as you say, lost some velocity. He has gone almost exclusively to only two pitches. This isn't a fluke because he had 8 starts so he has been consistently poor. But as fans we think "Ah Robbie Ray, he'll come around." But as a capper I don't look at names ever. I see a mediocre pitcher that will allow lots of runs and I'm fine with that. I can bet overs when he throws or bet against him if the other starter and team looks good. I look at the facts of what is now, not what was or not why it is.

I don't have time or space to put every detail in my writeups or I would be here all day but here's an item I saw but didn't include - In 9 of Rays' starts this year the total has gone over 6 times under 2 and pushed 1. Now, not every run is Ray's fault but it does say when he starts this year runs are scored. Lots of them. You have to admit that's very unRay like. And like I said, I look at what is not what was or could be. GL

 

[cashflowmatters]

Keep up the solid work