MLB Wednesday 10/6

[Wiretowire]

Record later haven't played Tues game yet.

St Louis/LA over 7 -140 x100 - I'm putting this in here before the books come to their senses and before NYY/Boston scores like 12 runs. Wainwright was touched by the Dodgers for 4 runs about 5 starts ago. He did go 8 and 1/3 and win 5-4 but he did allow them to beat him around some. Scherzer is one of the best in MLB. I love the guy. I also know he has sucked canal water his last two starts allowing 5 runs in each. On paper, Scherzer went 8 innings, struck out 13, and allowed only 1 run to the Cards 5 starts ago. But looking closer he did allow 6 hits to STL and Wainwright allowed 7 hits to LA. That's enough hits to easily produce a 3-3 score which can't lose an over 7 total. Also, in Wainwrights game the Cards scored 3 in the first. In Scherzer's game, LA scored 5 in the first. The books are expecting a real drawn out pitchers duel but if either team score 3 runs in the first two innings the opposing starter will be pulled. Don't forget this is another of those one and done playoff games. LA wins over 100 games and has to be in a one and done. MLB is the only sport that does this shit. All others go by games won during the season and it's a damn shame.

Side: Pass but I had a tough time passing. Why is LA favored by -220? Because of Scherzer? He has stunk his last two starts. Because the Dodgers are at home? -150 maybe but not a chance in hell they are favored over -200 just by being home. Because it's LA and the name means something because they won last year? Apparently, the books have forgotten that St Louis has been the very best team in MLB for the last two weeks or so.

If you are in your right mind take the Cards +210. You will never see value like that again maybe ever. Are you a Dodger fan? Then take the Cards +1 1/2 at -110 or better yet take the Cards +2 1/2 -180 and root root root for your Dodgers (to win by 2 runs). Then your favorite team wins AND you collect money. And if St Louis beats your favorite team? You console yourself with winning money.

St Louis is the side to play in some configuration and the total should get over. GL

 

[wiseplayer]

"MLB is the only sport that does this shit. All others go by games won during the season and it's a damn shame."
The NFL does this too as well as take the team with the better record and put them on the road. Bucs were the latest team. They were 11-5 and went to 7-9 Washington.
GL luck on your plays! Lets go!!!

 

[Wiretowire]

You are right Wise. I was thinking in the other sports the best records get byes or good seeds early in the playoffs. GL

 

[2daBank]

Price on doyers is crazy imo. I have no delusions about waino vs this lineup. No muncy obviously helps him navigate, him and yadi will come up with a solid game plan and no doubt waino will execute it!! 6+ Innings allowing 3 runs is what I expect. I would be pretty surprised if it worse than that, somewhat surprised if he better than that.

Assuming waino gives us that performance I’ll feel pretty good holding my rcards ticket!! Max could simply come out and piss all over us, he did exactly that not all that long ago. That was right before cards took off, since that lad series cards are 21-4 and that with 2 losses over the weekend in meaningless series where we set up our pitching! Max looked un-freaking-hittable for a month and a half after joining Dodgers but all a sudden he has looked human his last few! He wasnt exactly the bell cow during Nats championship run, he was good but Stras was the guy for nats (max dominated cards in the nlcs but that cards lineup didn’t really belong). Cards lineup is way more imposing these days, O’Neal has blossomed and crushing everything the last month, goldy has gotten hot at the right time, Carlson has gotten better and better as you would expect a young kid to do, Bader seems to finally have put it all together. Even if Max gets back to his dominate self I think cards can hit a few taters off him! 6-7 innings 2 runs imo.

Or just maybe max has ran out of gas? He not a spring chicken and sure appeared to me he was giving it all he had when he got to la to show why they traded for him!! Could be he didnt pace himself and tank on E! Let’s just be safe and assume he gets back to being that dude, I’d still feel pretty good if we got to the pens in the 7th inning and it a 3-2 or 3-1 game! Cards been taking really good late inning AB’s during this stretch, doyers pen been good but they don’t scare me. I have confidence in cards late in a close game here. As you said -150 sure, that seems like a pretty fair indicator of Dodgers chances of winning. No chance the number they offering is close to realistic indicator! Cards all day getting 2 to 1!!!

Far as total I think this landing on 7 pretty likely unless max has really hit a wall!! If i was looking at the over I think I would look at 1st 5 over 4 at plus money (or a juiced 3.5 if ya can get), I think the chances of 4-5 runs thru 5 innings not bad, I love the way cards pen been pitching, I think they lock it down once waino hands it over. Maybe they give up a solo Jack, feel pretty good cards can hold la to 4 runs the entire game. Certainly a decent chance this ends up tied at 4. I might look into some kinda game lands on 7-9 prop (think I actually saw that while I was at casino earlier), game is screaming either 4-3 or 5-4 to me! Rooting for 5-4 cards so we both cash! Gl

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks Bank. Great points all. I do disagree with one thing you said though 4-5 runs through 5 innings would mean to me this sails way over 9 if that was what the starters allowed that is. I would steer clear of the total in the first 5. As you said if Max comes out strong, and I don't see why he would, the under is probably good first 5 but who knows? But also as you said, if there are 4 runs scored in the first 5 innings I will be grinning from ear to ear on my over bet. Hope you are right. GL

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks for the reply Tim. GL

YTD +8475
Push total last.

I have looked and looked at ways to bet St Louis tonight but I just can't seem to pull the trigger. Everything I know is screaming bet the Cards at least at +2 1/2 runs but for some reason when I look over the stats and matchups I keep hesitating. Scherzer has looked bad in his last two but for some reason if he suddenly throws well tonight the Dodgers may win by more than two but then the over total is screwed if he throws well because Wainwright will probably only give LA 2 runs. And if he throws to recent form LA loses outright at -220 and the total probably goes over in that event. I keep going back to the fact that Wainwright will allow 7 hits and a couple of walks. Give LA those kind of chances and they will score more than 2 on you with their lineup. Figure Scherzer doesn't suddenly become Walter Johnson (He's a really old pitcher...... oh never mind) and runs will be scored either way. Fuck it. I'm staying with the over 7 and to hell with the side. GL

 

[cashflowmatters]

GL on the action

 

[inZane]

Thanks for the reply Tim. GL

YTD +8475
Push total last.

I have looked and looked at ways to bet St Louis tonight but I just can't seem to pull the trigger. Everything I know is screaming bet the Cards at least at +2 1/2 runs but for some reason when I look over the stats and matchups I keep hesitating. Scherzer has looked bad in his last two but for some reason if he suddenly throws well tonight the Dodgers may win by more than two but then the over total is screwed if he throws well because Wainwright will probably only give LA 2 runs. And if he throws to recent form LA loses outright at -220 and the total probably goes over in that event. I keep going back to the fact that Wainwright will allow 7 hits and a couple of walks. Give LA those kind of chances and they will score more than 2 on you with their lineup. Figure Scherzer doesn't suddenly become Walter Johnson (He's a really old pitcher...... oh never mind) and runs will be scored either way. Fuck it. I'm staying with the over 7 and to hell with the side. GL

Good luck Wire, I'm on the over also and the Cards tt over 2'.

:cheers3:

 

[wiseplayer]

Wire, I love betting series. You seeing anything you like yet?

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks Cash. GL

Thanks Inzane. Hope it comes through. Love Cards team total over 2 1/2. GL

Wise, series were Blood's forte. I don't seem historically to do very well with them. But I will give you my impressions if you like. Keep in mind I am much better at single games but here goes.

TB/Boston

I'm not sure Boston gets in against any team in the playoffs except the Yankees. They have some starting pitching questions to me and TB are as solid as they come. I lean TB in this series.

CHW/Hou

Everyone seems to hate Houston but be in love with their chances especially in this series. Both have good hitting maybe edge to Hou there and solid pitching but despite the stats I give the edge to CHW in pitching as I think they have more to trot out there in case of trouble. But this series comes down to one factor. LaRussa vs Baker and to me there is no contest. LaRussa is hated but he coaches circles around Baker. I wouldn't bet your money on Houston with Baker.

MLW/Atlanta

Don't tell Blood I said this but MLW is all around more solid than Atlanta. More hitting and more pitching. MLW has more offense except there are a couple of hitters for Atlanta that are much better than anything MLW has. Bottom line I pass this one because I have a feeling MLW will win but I also have a funny feeling if there is a surprise it comes from Atlanta or Boston.

SF/St Louis or LA

Doesn't matter who comes up against the Giants they are the best team in this years playoff field. I would take SF against either team as I think they win it all this year. LA was the second best team in MLB and no matter how many games they won SF just stepped on the gas a little more and left them. Offense, defense, pitching, and as an overall "team" SF should win it all.

When I'm trying to pick a series winner early I always go by the "Oh shit!" factor. Of all the teams in the playoffs which one don't you want to play? TB, Boston, CHW, Hou, MLW, Atlanta, STL/LA or SF? Yeah. SF, Oh shit! (Although I will say LA fits that as well but they aren't in yet until after tonight.

Now I have just given SF the kiss of death and no matter which team they play the Cards or Dodgers will sweep them out of the playoffs. Sorry about SF fans but Wise made me do it. GL

 

[wiseplayer]

Thanks Cash. GL

Thanks Inzane. Hope it comes through. Love Cards team total over 2 1/2. GL

Wise, series were Blood's forte. I don't seem historically to do very well with them. But I will give you my impressions if you like. Keep in mind I am much better at single games but here goes.

TB/Boston

I'm not sure Boston gets in against any team in the playoffs except the Yankees. They have some starting pitching questions to me and TB are as solid as they come. I lean TB in this series.

CHW/Hou

Everyone seems to hate Houston but be in love with their chances especially in this series. Both have good hitting maybe edge to Hou there and solid pitching but despite the stats I give the edge to CHW in pitching as I think they have more to trot out there in case of trouble. But this series comes down to one factor. LaRussa vs Baker and to me there is no contest. LaRussa is hated but he coaches circles around Baker. I wouldn't bet your money on Houston with Baker.

MLW/Atlanta

Don't tell Blood I said this but MLW is all around more solid than Atlanta. More hitting and more pitching. MLW has more offense except there are a couple of hitters for Atlanta that are much better than anything MLW has. Bottom line I pass this one because I have a feeling MLW will win but I also have a funny feeling if there is a surprise it comes from Atlanta or Boston.

SF/St Louis or LA

Doesn't matter who comes up against the Giants they are the best team in this years playoff field. I would take SF against either team as I think they win it all this year. LA was the second best team in MLB and no matter how many games they won SF just stepped on the gas a little more and left them. Offense, defense, pitching, and as an overall "team" SF should win it all.

When I'm trying to pick a series winner early I always go by the "Oh shit!" factor. Of all the teams in the playoffs which one don't you want to play? TB, Boston, CHW, Hou, MLW, Atlanta, STL/LA or SF? Yeah. SF, Oh shit! (Although I will say LA fits that as well but they aren't in yet until after tonight.

Now I have just given SF the kiss of death and no matter which team they play the Cards or Dodgers will sweep them out of the playoffs. Sorry about SF fans but Wise made me do it. GL

Great stuff Wire. Im not good at series bets but like to have something small on it to have a rooting interest on a series I could care less about, like the Astros series.