Wiretowire
Pretty much a regular
YTD +85.6
MLB push yesterday because the fucking Cubs can't hit shit.
A couple of things before my pick today.
EMG, you were right the Cubs are still favored -110 even after the loss last night. Any other team would have become at least a slight dog but good call. For those of you that did play the hedge and took Cleveland for the series it will still work in your favor. The Indians will be favored at some point during this series and you can bet the Cubs then to complete the hedge. Could even be after the game tonight. GL
For those of you that don't know me and are new to the forum I have been capping and betting sports, particularly baseball, for 47 years. I even played professional baseball. But since that was only in the minor leagues it doesn't count much. The last 21 years of those 47 have been on the internet starting at Covers, then Winners Circle Sports, and finally here at CappingTheGame. I have posted almost every day (except when travelling) for the entire 7 months of the baseball season and I always have kept a record of my picks and results posted in my threads. Trust me not everyone posts every day and not everyone keeps track of their record. During the last 21 years I have had 17 winning baseball seasons and 4 years where I have finished on the losing end for the year.
The value of these forums is to share insight as to not only opinions but also the way we cap games individually. We share our thoughts and some of us as I said before make picks. Above all we should always keep our sense of humor. A perfect example of this was in my yesterday thread. A couple of posters questioned why I would make the statement that Cleveland had a better defense than the Cubs. I'm guessing this insulted two die hard Cubs fans. I answered that question stating that Cleveland was ranked significantly higher in fielding % than the Cubs. It was only one factor I used to determine who had an advantage and in what areas for this series.
Unfortunately, the other posters seemed to became heated as they tried to downplay and dismiss fielding % as a viable stat. I like to look at who is more likely to commit an error in a series but as I said everyone is entitled to their opinion. One, even went so far as to suggest that "if you're a guy who likes and relies on stats, wouldn't you want to be pointed in the direction of the ones that actually matter, the ones that actually tell the real story." Obviously from that statement the stats that I consider are not worth considering in his opinion. I love that passive aggressive shit. The good news is I am still chuckling over that statement. :rofl:
Look folks, the bottom line is we are here to help each other. I don't expect everyone to agree with what I say. Hell, I don't expect everyone to even like me. And frankly I could not care less. I don't want to fight with anyone. None of these capping points is worth arguing over. You do it your way and I'll do it mine. Hopefully, we all come out ahead. GL
Cubs/Cleveland over 7 (5 units)
I don't understand Francona and why in the world he wouldn't want to give Bauer's hand another 3 days to heal meaning him starting Friday night getting today, all day Thursday, and all day Friday. Throwing Tomlin in this one seems to be logical but I am not privy to the clubhouse. I'm sure he has his reasons but they baffle me.
In any event, Bauer has pitched well recently but he does not have overpowering stuff. When completely healthy he will give you 6 innings and allow on average 3 runs. But he is not completely healthy and while trying to get ready for this start he did not throw as hard as he has to in a real game. You know as hard as he did to make a bloody mess of his finger like he did last week. I'm sure Tito has plans for Salazar and that kid to back him up if he gets into trouble early but I think the situation is ripe for the Cubs to get to him but more on that later.
Arrieta allows too many base runners. He does a high wire act with runners on base more often than not. His last 3 starts are proof of this as he holds a crowd pleasing 7+ era. And that was against the Pirates who hammered him and the light hitting Dodgers who took him deep twice. The only decent start he has had in the last 3 is against the even lighter hitting Giants. What I also like about him when he takes the mound is that Madden always keeps him in way too long. By that I mean if he allows 3 runs early Madden won't take him out until he has allowed at least another run and more runners on base.
The only danger with this over bet is that Cleveland may have to score all 7 by themselves. Bases loaded and no one out and you can't score? DEAR GOD! And even had runners on 1st and 3rd with only one out and couldn't score. The first 3 batters in the lineup take a size 11 collar with 4 strikeouts. And 15 strikeouts overall? You even made Cody Allen look good as he struck out the side and that's hard to do because you should be able to hit Allen. I know you fall asleep at the plate Cubs but maybe you could manage a run to help tonight? Please?
As for a side, I lean Cleveland +140. Theylook good to me tonight no matter who starts. Why do I like Cleveland? Because they didn't look scared. Because they can and did hit the ball. Because they bat last. Because they aren't walking around like zombies just expecting to win. Because they didn't get their best starter beaten the night before and make no mistake that shit is in the minds of the Cubs. You count on your best guy to win. When he does you know no matter what happens in the next few games you can count on that best guy to win again next start. When your best guy doesn't win his first start you start thinking about what will happen if.... and that is a bad frame of mind.
Obviously, it was only one game. But it was one game Cleveland had to win to take this series from the Cubs and they did. The Cubs faithful can slough it off and say "Big deal. It was only one game." And to a point I agree. But If Cleveland somehow wins tonight then you can't just say it was just "two games". I frankly think the series comes down to this game tonight. Cubs win and they take the home field back to Chicago. Cleveland wins and the series will definitely come back to Cleveland. It will also be over and Cleveland will win it all.
No matter what, going into this game the Cubs know they have to win or they will be in trouble. The Tribe can be loose and see what happens. I know this old man who always says pressure will kill you in baseball. That would seem to all be on the Cubs tonight.
More good news for all my "fans" out there. I will be going to Montreal for the weekend very early tomorrow (Thursday). I won't post again until next Tuesday. So you don't have to put up with any more threads or old school capping ideas from me about this series. A series which could well be over by then. I wonder what the odds were on Cleveland to win this series in 5 games. Pretty high I expect. GL
MLB push yesterday because the fucking Cubs can't hit shit.
A couple of things before my pick today.
EMG, you were right the Cubs are still favored -110 even after the loss last night. Any other team would have become at least a slight dog but good call. For those of you that did play the hedge and took Cleveland for the series it will still work in your favor. The Indians will be favored at some point during this series and you can bet the Cubs then to complete the hedge. Could even be after the game tonight. GL
For those of you that don't know me and are new to the forum I have been capping and betting sports, particularly baseball, for 47 years. I even played professional baseball. But since that was only in the minor leagues it doesn't count much. The last 21 years of those 47 have been on the internet starting at Covers, then Winners Circle Sports, and finally here at CappingTheGame. I have posted almost every day (except when travelling) for the entire 7 months of the baseball season and I always have kept a record of my picks and results posted in my threads. Trust me not everyone posts every day and not everyone keeps track of their record. During the last 21 years I have had 17 winning baseball seasons and 4 years where I have finished on the losing end for the year.
The value of these forums is to share insight as to not only opinions but also the way we cap games individually. We share our thoughts and some of us as I said before make picks. Above all we should always keep our sense of humor. A perfect example of this was in my yesterday thread. A couple of posters questioned why I would make the statement that Cleveland had a better defense than the Cubs. I'm guessing this insulted two die hard Cubs fans. I answered that question stating that Cleveland was ranked significantly higher in fielding % than the Cubs. It was only one factor I used to determine who had an advantage and in what areas for this series.
Unfortunately, the other posters seemed to became heated as they tried to downplay and dismiss fielding % as a viable stat. I like to look at who is more likely to commit an error in a series but as I said everyone is entitled to their opinion. One, even went so far as to suggest that "if you're a guy who likes and relies on stats, wouldn't you want to be pointed in the direction of the ones that actually matter, the ones that actually tell the real story." Obviously from that statement the stats that I consider are not worth considering in his opinion. I love that passive aggressive shit. The good news is I am still chuckling over that statement. :rofl:
Look folks, the bottom line is we are here to help each other. I don't expect everyone to agree with what I say. Hell, I don't expect everyone to even like me. And frankly I could not care less. I don't want to fight with anyone. None of these capping points is worth arguing over. You do it your way and I'll do it mine. Hopefully, we all come out ahead. GL
Cubs/Cleveland over 7 (5 units)
I don't understand Francona and why in the world he wouldn't want to give Bauer's hand another 3 days to heal meaning him starting Friday night getting today, all day Thursday, and all day Friday. Throwing Tomlin in this one seems to be logical but I am not privy to the clubhouse. I'm sure he has his reasons but they baffle me.
In any event, Bauer has pitched well recently but he does not have overpowering stuff. When completely healthy he will give you 6 innings and allow on average 3 runs. But he is not completely healthy and while trying to get ready for this start he did not throw as hard as he has to in a real game. You know as hard as he did to make a bloody mess of his finger like he did last week. I'm sure Tito has plans for Salazar and that kid to back him up if he gets into trouble early but I think the situation is ripe for the Cubs to get to him but more on that later.
Arrieta allows too many base runners. He does a high wire act with runners on base more often than not. His last 3 starts are proof of this as he holds a crowd pleasing 7+ era. And that was against the Pirates who hammered him and the light hitting Dodgers who took him deep twice. The only decent start he has had in the last 3 is against the even lighter hitting Giants. What I also like about him when he takes the mound is that Madden always keeps him in way too long. By that I mean if he allows 3 runs early Madden won't take him out until he has allowed at least another run and more runners on base.
The only danger with this over bet is that Cleveland may have to score all 7 by themselves. Bases loaded and no one out and you can't score? DEAR GOD! And even had runners on 1st and 3rd with only one out and couldn't score. The first 3 batters in the lineup take a size 11 collar with 4 strikeouts. And 15 strikeouts overall? You even made Cody Allen look good as he struck out the side and that's hard to do because you should be able to hit Allen. I know you fall asleep at the plate Cubs but maybe you could manage a run to help tonight? Please?
As for a side, I lean Cleveland +140. Theylook good to me tonight no matter who starts. Why do I like Cleveland? Because they didn't look scared. Because they can and did hit the ball. Because they bat last. Because they aren't walking around like zombies just expecting to win. Because they didn't get their best starter beaten the night before and make no mistake that shit is in the minds of the Cubs. You count on your best guy to win. When he does you know no matter what happens in the next few games you can count on that best guy to win again next start. When your best guy doesn't win his first start you start thinking about what will happen if.... and that is a bad frame of mind.
Obviously, it was only one game. But it was one game Cleveland had to win to take this series from the Cubs and they did. The Cubs faithful can slough it off and say "Big deal. It was only one game." And to a point I agree. But If Cleveland somehow wins tonight then you can't just say it was just "two games". I frankly think the series comes down to this game tonight. Cubs win and they take the home field back to Chicago. Cleveland wins and the series will definitely come back to Cleveland. It will also be over and Cleveland will win it all.
No matter what, going into this game the Cubs know they have to win or they will be in trouble. The Tribe can be loose and see what happens. I know this old man who always says pressure will kill you in baseball. That would seem to all be on the Cubs tonight.
More good news for all my "fans" out there. I will be going to Montreal for the weekend very early tomorrow (Thursday). I won't post again until next Tuesday. So you don't have to put up with any more threads or old school capping ideas from me about this series. A series which could well be over by then. I wonder what the odds were on Cleveland to win this series in 5 games. Pretty high I expect. GL
