MLB Wednesday 10/12

[Wiretowire]

YTD +2219
2-2 last parlay lost

Thanks Inzane. GL

Thanks Wise. GL

Thanks Bank. GL

Thanks Tim. GL

I have said time and again that you don't actually play baseball with emotion. It breaks down the mechanics. It is probably the only sport, except maybe golf, where emotion hurts you. You react after a hit, catch, or out but emotion stays away during play. But as a former player I can tell you things happen that build confidence and that is a big contributor to your ability to win. Mindset. The biggest factor there is how you win or lose games. Seattle had a big lead and then got beaten by Houston. Houston gets the confidence that Seattle can't ever hold a lead they can't overcome. Seattle thinks there is never a lead safe enough. Mindset. That is huge and unless Seattle wins their next game to erase those thoughts they are done in that series. Philly has the opposite effect. They won but Atlanta erased a big lead late. The Phillies are thinking WTF? and the Braves are all saying we will beat these guys we just ran out of innings in the first game. Despite being down 0-1 in the series that is a big lift for the Braves. Mindset. Now Philly can destroy that confidence if they win again today but Atlanta is feeling pretty good about themselves right now.

A brief word on the other two series.

Cleveland has to score. They have scored 2,1, and 1 run in their 3 playoff games. Miraculously they beat TB in two games scoring only a total of 3 runs. I actually believe Cle holds an edge in pitching over the Yanks and they say pitching wins games. But they that say that never played and unless you score you will lose. Especially to the Yankees. 2 runs won't cut it and you will be playing golf next week. The interesting thing I have seen so far in this series is NY refuses to give Ramirez anything to hit. Yet the tribe continues pitching to Judge. Get your head out of your ass Francona.

SD had a decent showing against LA. Falling way behind they came back but it was more of a scratch back than a surge. Nonetheless they did come back and that bodes well for them in the series. The problem is that LA hitter just keep coming at you. There are no holes in that lineup and their pitching, especially the bullpen, is outstanding. The question I have is this todo about Soto. I don't get it. He's a .240 hitter and that's below average as hitters go. They even have Machado hitting behind him to protect him, so he gets good pitches to hit. I don't see why everyone is so enthralled about this guy. To me he is an average hitter that hasn't really done shit since he left Wash. Now of course having said that Soto will probably start tearing the cover off the ball, but I am going to take the Missouri attitude and he's going to have to show me before I change my mind.

All x50 each

Phil +2 1/2 -300 - This was a tough one for me. Can't take over as both pitchers have been very good. Can't take under as the total is too low. The deciding factor for me was head to head. Wheeler has faced the Braves 3 times this year and been damn near unhittable. Wright has been touched for at least a couple of runs each time he faced the Phillies. High odds but that's why I am going slow here, and I think it's a really good bet as of course Atlanta can win but by less than 3 runs and this pitching matchup says neither team is going to win by 3 runs.

LA ML -200 - Tough to find the right angle here as well. Darvish has been very solid of late, and the Dodgers only got to him once in 4 meetings. Kershaw has been his usual machine self recently. The total is a guess because I'm not comfortable over or under although the lean is probably under. The deciding factor is offense and SD doesn't score a lot while LA can put up 5 against anyone. Have to take the home team and last at bats even with high odds in this one. GL

 

[inZane]

Bol today Wire.

:smiledrinkbeer:

 

[wiseplayer]

Dodgers look lethargic to me. Bellinger swung the bat like a Little League. His backside is inactive when he swings. Continues to be pitched up in the zone and cant adjust. Turner looks like he’s going through a divorce. This Dodger team doesn’t look like a WS team. Padres not bunting with runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs in the 8th is mind boggling. Not forcing LA to play the infield in or back to give up a run for an out was the mistake of the day. GL!

 

[2daBank]

Dodgers look lethargic to me. Bellinger swung the bat like a Little League. His backside is inactive when he swings. Continues to be pitched up in the zone and cant adjust. Turner looks like he’s going through a divorce. This Dodger team doesn’t look like a WS team. Padres not bunting with runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs in the 8th is mind boggling. Not forcing LA to play the infield in or back to give up a run for an out was the mistake of the day. GL!

I love pads today. Only reason I didn’t yesterday was cause clevinger a total loser and I knew they would hit him! They didn’t do anything to pads so so pen, Yu is gonna shit on them tonight and I’m still high on pads offense, they grinded it out vs Urias and got 3 runs and him out the game after 5, imo he a better playoff pitcher than Kershaw ever been. I fully expect pads to get 2-3 off Kershaw and another 1-2 off pen today and that be more than enough for Yu! Darvish getting +160 is insane value imo! Oh and his out yotak is 17.5 -110 to over! He has went 6+ in 29 of 31 starts this year! All 4 starts against lad, a day pads need him to eat innings you think he leaving before the 7th? I don’t!

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks Inzane. I appreciate it. GL

Thanks Wise. Wow. Tell me how you really feel about LA. I won't be broken hearted if LA fails to win the WS. And I happen to agree with your take that LA was lethargic. But they still beat SD even lethargic. Imagine what will happen if they come to life? GL

Thanks Bank. I appreciate your opinion. I have to wait and see about the SD offense versus the LA offense. They haven't shown me enough yet. As for Urias being a better playoff pitcher than Kershaw ever was I get your point, but I don't agree. And that's ok because we don't have to agree on everything. I have a hunch LA hits Darvish tonight, but I have no stats or basis for that just a feeling so you could be right he may dominate LA. GL

 

[cashflowmatters]

GL on the action w2w

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks Cash. GL

 

[2daBank]

Thanks Inzane. I appreciate it. GL

Thanks Wise. Wow. Tell me how you really feel about LA. I won't be broken hearted if LA fails to win the WS. And I happen to agree with your take that LA was lethargic. But they still beat SD even lethargic. Imagine what will happen if they come to life? GL

Thanks Bank. I appreciate your opinion. I have to wait and see about the SD offense versus the LA offense. They haven't shown me enough yet. As for Urias being a better playoff pitcher than Kershaw ever was I get your point, but I don't agree. And that's ok because we don't have to agree on everything. I have a hunch LA hits Darvish tonight, but I have no stats or basis for that just a feeling so you could be right he may dominate LA. GL

I don’t mind disagree with other smart ppl I respect who can do it in a civil way. If we all agreed wouldn’t be much fun. The thing with Yu out total even if he doesn’t dominate after pads having to use the pen so much last night I think it a lead pipe lock Yu is going 6 innings even if he gives up 3-4 runs. I don’t think he gives up more than 1-2 but either way I’d bet my left nut he goes at least 6 innings! Also I think the fact they have Kershaw out total at 15.5 is pretty telling, even if we don’t agree on him vs Urias ya gotta admit pads grinding out 3 runs off Urias and getting him out the game after 5 is pretty impressive considering his resume, not just in playoffs but he had only given up 3 runs in 2-3 starts the entire year! So pads getting 3 off him has to speak to them taking pretty good at bats don’t ya think?

 

[2daBank]

Urias hadn’t given up more than 2 runs since early July!!

 

[2daBank]

In the end if I lose this game I’m being totally genuine in saying I’ll at least be happy you won. You one my favorite guys to talk bases with and there not many I think worth my time! (Lol). Nothing but respect for way ya go about it buddy, at least one of us be right!

 

[Wiretowire]

Yes I agree SD did a great job on one of the better pitchers in the league. I also think whoever wins this series will have an inside track to the pennant. And thanks for the kind words. I love talking baseball with you as well my friend. GL

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

enjoyed reading your thoughts. that was a devastating loss for the M's. could see those last two innings unfolding, and there was nothing they could do to stop it. i'm afraid they're done. that game was a nail in the coffin, mentally, for most teams.
the only guy that can save them is JRod. that kid is amazing. if the kid comes out like he did yesterday, they may just be able to shake that off. problem is that the pen is still shook, and they eventually have to get the crucial outs.

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks Yanks. I appreciate it. It was almost like you could feel the M's just hanging on even with the big lead. Still not sure why they threw Ray in relief in that situation. GL

 

[chipnotized]

Thanks Yanks. I appreciate it. It was almost like you could feel the M's just hanging on even with the big lead. Still not sure why they threw Ray in relief in that situation. GL

That's why baseball coaches are called managers. They've gotta manage the game. Putting Ray in to face Alvarez probably just cost the M's the series.

The only 3 managers I have any modicum of trust in this post season: Baker; Melvin; Tito. The rest are capable of knuckleheaded moves at any time.

 

[KJ]

That's why baseball coaches are called managers. They've gotta manage the game. Putting Ray in to face Alvarez probably just cost the M's the series.

The only 3 managers I have any modicum of trust in this post season: Baker; Melvin; Tito. The rest are capable of knuckleheaded moves at any time.

Thing is I was raving about the move with that first pitch fastball...but that was assuming he'd throw nothing but sliders after that, no clue why he went back to the fastball against a guy that can't hit sliders

 

[Wiretowire]

I think it may have cost them the series Chip. GL

And KJ the funny thing when I saw Ray sent in, I was sitting there thinking oh good a guy that starts and takes two hours to get ready and is going in after 20 pitches in the bullpen. Just please don't throw a fastball to this guy. GL

 

[KJ]

Yeah Wire I liked showing it first but I sincerely thought he was in there to throw sliders to that guy, mind boggling stuff.

 

[2daBank]

I mentioned somewhere I couldn’t believe they went to Ray. Houston has owned him all year. Seattle has tons of filth in their pen, did they use it all? I know it appears crushing and honestly I didn’t think they could beat Stros anyways but it not gonna effect how Castillo pitches, he comes out and dominates and it a whole new series.

 

[2daBank]

enjoyed reading your thoughts. that was a devastating loss for the M's. could see those last two innings unfolding, and there was nothing they could do to stop it. i'm afraid they're done. that game was a nail in the coffin, mentally, for most teams.
the only guy that can save them is JRod. that kid is amazing. if the kid comes out like he did yesterday, they may just be able to shake that off. problem is that the pen is still shook, and they eventually have to get the crucial outs.

Even tho I’ve thought from beginning this was Stros series, just the experience, seattle a year early, and Stros owning them, never believe the game over. But you know what they say, momentum only as good as your next day starter!! This way they traded and gave Castillo the money, the thing I was begging cardinals to do!! He is a bad mofo! I was worried bout him in WC round cause his splits since joining seattle ain’t been great on road, I think I’m over that now tho, he stepped up and pitched fantastic in that game, I think he will do it again here. I like all houston pitchers but seattle was able to score a few runs off Valdez last 2 times they saw him, I think Castillo goes 7+ and leaves with a 2-1 type lead. Then we see if the pen can hold it. Sign me up all day for Castillo over 17.5 outs!!

 

[2daBank]

I begged cards to trade a few their overrated prospects they covet to get Castillo. For my money he one the better guys who doesn’t get that kind of respect, his stuff is pure filth! Seattle picking him up and signing him they gonna win a WS in next 3 years. They just early this year and houston too damn good. Seattle would be bitch slapping the yanks!

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

That's why baseball coaches are called managers. They've gotta manage the game. Putting Ray in to face Alvarez probably just cost the M's the series.

The only 3 managers I have any modicum of trust in this post season: Baker; Melvin; Tito. The rest are capable of knuckleheaded moves at any time.

they all are capable of that, especially boone.
baker could fuck up pen use with the best of them in his giants/reds/nats days. that was a strange move, but servais is actually pretty solid. love melvin too.