Atlanta +112 1.5 units
Is Mil really favored here?
Not only did I make Mil a favorite; my numbers give them -160. Here is basically how I line my games. I have the Braves as a 50% winning team when they have Harang on the mound. (Projected to score 811 and give up 799 if he started every game). Projected era for Harang of 4.92.
I have Mil as a 57% winning with Garza on the mound. Offense isn't as good as Atl, Garza should give up far less runs over the course of the season than Harang. Garza with an ERA of 3.64.
Adjusted for home field and my numbers show that Mil wins this game 61% of the time.
Of note, I don't put as heavy an emphasis on bullpen as most do, especially not early in the year. This is bc bullpen are highly volatile from year to year, but even such, the Braves should have a better pen than the Brewers. Thus, I probably would have played Milwaukee at anything less than 140ish instead of my numbers of 160.
Stepping back and looking at it without at the numbers: Brewers have a pretty legit lineup Braun, ARam, Gomez, Lucroy and even Bennet, segura and Davis are not bad hitters. I'd probably go as far to say that while they don't have the best offense, they don't have any huge black holes though.
The Braves on the other hand have BJ plus I'm not very high on Gattis and I also expect massive regression from Johnson. And Simmons is a borderline black hole with the bat.
Best of luck today, scdoggy...just my thoughts.
Nice hit on the Bravos
