Satyr
Paster of Muppets
MLB 2007: 84 W-6V-69 L +90.75 units
Looking at my record I went 2-2, +3.75 units last night, but it was actually a lot better than that as I hit a double (LAD+OAK) and White Sox RL which I didn't post due to lack of time.So it was more like +12 unit kind of day. Let's use that momentum to nail some winners tonight.
Padres (Young) (-1) (2.01 @ Pinnacle) 6 units
OVER 7 (1.97 @ Pinnacle) 10 units
I have to go in with more than 10 units on a game here, and I'll explain why.
The Men in Blue are winning but they are impressing no one in their last couple of games. They struggled mightily against Pittsburgh whether going behind 4-0 with their ace on the mound then rallying back to pull a win, or nearly squandering a 5-0 lead last night, take your pick. And we're talking Bucs' offense here, these guys have 2 dangerous hitters. Try surging Padres at PETCO, who give the ball to one of their most dominant pitchers.
Chris Young (6-3, 2.42) is 4-1 with a 1.13 ERA in his last six starts.
The Padres had a day off and will try to keep their streak going (15-6 since May 11).
However, Young has had his share of struggles against the Dodger blue bats:
On April 15 he allowed five runs -- four earned -- seven hits and five walks in a season-low two innings as the Padres lost 9-3.
He is 0-2 with a 3.62 ERA in six career starts versus the Dodgers. Definitely not a bad number, but has been lacking run support.
Have no fear that will happen tonight, as Padres' bats put 18 runs on the board in the last 2 games. The Dodgers have a 4-2 series lead so Padres will want to step up here not to fall behind too much (have in mind the over (at tonight's projected total) is 5-1 in those 6 games)
The Dodgers are missing their number one closer Takashi Saito (16-for-16 in save conversions this season) and they already almost blew the lead going into the 9th last night with Broxton hanging on with his arms and legs to the win. They're already missing Brazoban since the season started, Saito's miss will be felt once 9th inning comes knocking.
Now I don't see anything wrong with this line sans the fact Jason Schmidt (1-2, 7.36 ERA) is coming from the DL and has been roughed up properly in his last few starts, including the one against SD earlier this year, giving up six runs -- five earned -- and seven hits in just two innings of work.
This guy is coming off the DL to face a team that has put 18 runs on the board in their last 2 games.
I'm aware PETCO is a wide pitchers' friendly park but there is NO WAY anything can warrant a line THIS LOW. The Padres could exceed this total by themselves the way I see this one.
What's next, if the line gets pounded or something, 6.5? Now I would buy 7.5 if Penny was pitching for the Dodgers, and even then I would've expected AT LEAST 7.5, due to Padres' recent resurgence. But with Dodgers' pitching completely depleted (missing Saito, Schmidt in a slump, off the DL), and the fact Young was already tagged by some of the Dodger bats, I'm thinking this line is insanely low, despite a rather solid Padres' pen.
Expected score 8-4 Padres.
Indians (Sabathia) (RL) (1.82 @ Pinnacle) 9 units
The Injuns have slowed down a bit following an impressive winning streak, and are now ready to start another one. Their ace will get the ball tonight, CC Sabathia (8-1, 3.78 ERA). The Indians are only 1-2 against KC this year and they know divisional matchups are of huge importance, no matter the opponent.
Sabathia is all about run support. Even when he's in a hole, he can expect Tribe bats to bail him out. And this year he hasn't even had many of that blackout moments:
The veteran is 5-0 with a 3.23 ERA in seven home starts for the Indians, who are 19-6 at Jacobs Field. They'll host a Kansas City squad that has dropped nine of its last 11 contests, including the final two of a four-game series with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays to split the set.
Kansas City, also losers of 2 straight games, will send out Jorge De La Rosa, up until recently considered, together with Meche, the strongest link in Royals' rotation.
De La Rosa (4-5, 4.97 ERA) has given up 14 runs through 9 1-3 innings in back-to-back defeats, the first of which was a 10-3 loss to the Indians on May 24, when he allowed a season-high nine runs over 4 1-3 innings.
De La Rosa is 1-1 with a 10.13 ERA in four career starts versus Cleveland.
Athletics (Di Nardo) (2.49 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
The A's nailed the W last night after a 4 hour thriller thanks to a walk off homer by Eric Chavez. There is a well known rule, and anyone out there who flew across country should know: jetlag usually starts taking its toll the SECOND day following the trip.
Daisuke Matsuzaka is getting too much respect by the books over and over again. This guy has been great at times, but his record (7-3, 4.83 ERA) tells the story. 7 wins but 4.83 ERA to go with it. He's been prone to collapses and letdowns but had some fantastic run support to go with it.
However, his team might be feeling a bit weary following a tiring series with the Yanks, then traveling across country, and playing a 4 hour thriller, which they lost.
The Red Sox will have a lot of backers here I'm sure, as the good ol' "they can't lose 3 in a row" kind of reasoning jumps in.
Di Nardo is a reliever promoted to SP, and he's definitely not the best man to hold the Red Sox offense. However, I'm counting on these guys to have a sub par game, they basically didn't have a real losing streak since the season started and no team can keep winning in such rhythm, so it's more than understandable that they need some rest and time to regroup before starting another winning streak.
I can't miss out on this game because the price will probably be adjusted if my theory proves to be right. Even though it's hard to say since Schilling will be on the mound so there has to be value in Oaktown as well.
I wrote a lot about the A's and their June resurrection in my last night's writeup, so I won't repeat it here. These guys step up in June. End of story. They had more than enough chances to seal the deal way before the 9th inning (when Embree let in 2 runs for the Sox to tie the game), I expect them to capitalize on their chances tonight and convert runners on base into runs.
3 units mostly due to the fact Di Nardo isn't a pitcher to trust and Boston bats are Boston bats. I think home park advantage and this small momentum A's are building up will make the difference over the weary Red Sox.
Leans (that probably won't be promoted to plays, as I already have more than enough in action, just for the information who I like):
SF (Cain)
Angels (RL) (Escobar) (strong lean)
Angels over 8.5
Game 2 ATL (Smoltz) - Florida (Van Den Hurk) Florida +1 (2.60)
Good luck tonight guys. :cheers: :shake:
Looking at my record I went 2-2, +3.75 units last night, but it was actually a lot better than that as I hit a double (LAD+OAK) and White Sox RL which I didn't post due to lack of time.So it was more like +12 unit kind of day. Let's use that momentum to nail some winners tonight.
Padres (Young) (-1) (2.01 @ Pinnacle) 6 units
OVER 7 (1.97 @ Pinnacle) 10 units
I have to go in with more than 10 units on a game here, and I'll explain why.
The Men in Blue are winning but they are impressing no one in their last couple of games. They struggled mightily against Pittsburgh whether going behind 4-0 with their ace on the mound then rallying back to pull a win, or nearly squandering a 5-0 lead last night, take your pick. And we're talking Bucs' offense here, these guys have 2 dangerous hitters. Try surging Padres at PETCO, who give the ball to one of their most dominant pitchers.
Chris Young (6-3, 2.42) is 4-1 with a 1.13 ERA in his last six starts.
The Padres had a day off and will try to keep their streak going (15-6 since May 11).
However, Young has had his share of struggles against the Dodger blue bats:
On April 15 he allowed five runs -- four earned -- seven hits and five walks in a season-low two innings as the Padres lost 9-3.
He is 0-2 with a 3.62 ERA in six career starts versus the Dodgers. Definitely not a bad number, but has been lacking run support.
Have no fear that will happen tonight, as Padres' bats put 18 runs on the board in the last 2 games. The Dodgers have a 4-2 series lead so Padres will want to step up here not to fall behind too much (have in mind the over (at tonight's projected total) is 5-1 in those 6 games)
The Dodgers are missing their number one closer Takashi Saito (16-for-16 in save conversions this season) and they already almost blew the lead going into the 9th last night with Broxton hanging on with his arms and legs to the win. They're already missing Brazoban since the season started, Saito's miss will be felt once 9th inning comes knocking.
Now I don't see anything wrong with this line sans the fact Jason Schmidt (1-2, 7.36 ERA) is coming from the DL and has been roughed up properly in his last few starts, including the one against SD earlier this year, giving up six runs -- five earned -- and seven hits in just two innings of work.
This guy is coming off the DL to face a team that has put 18 runs on the board in their last 2 games.
I'm aware PETCO is a wide pitchers' friendly park but there is NO WAY anything can warrant a line THIS LOW. The Padres could exceed this total by themselves the way I see this one.
What's next, if the line gets pounded or something, 6.5? Now I would buy 7.5 if Penny was pitching for the Dodgers, and even then I would've expected AT LEAST 7.5, due to Padres' recent resurgence. But with Dodgers' pitching completely depleted (missing Saito, Schmidt in a slump, off the DL), and the fact Young was already tagged by some of the Dodger bats, I'm thinking this line is insanely low, despite a rather solid Padres' pen.
Expected score 8-4 Padres.
Indians (Sabathia) (RL) (1.82 @ Pinnacle) 9 units
The Injuns have slowed down a bit following an impressive winning streak, and are now ready to start another one. Their ace will get the ball tonight, CC Sabathia (8-1, 3.78 ERA). The Indians are only 1-2 against KC this year and they know divisional matchups are of huge importance, no matter the opponent.
Sabathia is all about run support. Even when he's in a hole, he can expect Tribe bats to bail him out. And this year he hasn't even had many of that blackout moments:
The veteran is 5-0 with a 3.23 ERA in seven home starts for the Indians, who are 19-6 at Jacobs Field. They'll host a Kansas City squad that has dropped nine of its last 11 contests, including the final two of a four-game series with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays to split the set.
Kansas City, also losers of 2 straight games, will send out Jorge De La Rosa, up until recently considered, together with Meche, the strongest link in Royals' rotation.
De La Rosa (4-5, 4.97 ERA) has given up 14 runs through 9 1-3 innings in back-to-back defeats, the first of which was a 10-3 loss to the Indians on May 24, when he allowed a season-high nine runs over 4 1-3 innings.
De La Rosa is 1-1 with a 10.13 ERA in four career starts versus Cleveland.
Athletics (Di Nardo) (2.49 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
The A's nailed the W last night after a 4 hour thriller thanks to a walk off homer by Eric Chavez. There is a well known rule, and anyone out there who flew across country should know: jetlag usually starts taking its toll the SECOND day following the trip.
Daisuke Matsuzaka is getting too much respect by the books over and over again. This guy has been great at times, but his record (7-3, 4.83 ERA) tells the story. 7 wins but 4.83 ERA to go with it. He's been prone to collapses and letdowns but had some fantastic run support to go with it.
However, his team might be feeling a bit weary following a tiring series with the Yanks, then traveling across country, and playing a 4 hour thriller, which they lost.
The Red Sox will have a lot of backers here I'm sure, as the good ol' "they can't lose 3 in a row" kind of reasoning jumps in.
Di Nardo is a reliever promoted to SP, and he's definitely not the best man to hold the Red Sox offense. However, I'm counting on these guys to have a sub par game, they basically didn't have a real losing streak since the season started and no team can keep winning in such rhythm, so it's more than understandable that they need some rest and time to regroup before starting another winning streak.
I can't miss out on this game because the price will probably be adjusted if my theory proves to be right. Even though it's hard to say since Schilling will be on the mound so there has to be value in Oaktown as well.
I wrote a lot about the A's and their June resurrection in my last night's writeup, so I won't repeat it here. These guys step up in June. End of story. They had more than enough chances to seal the deal way before the 9th inning (when Embree let in 2 runs for the Sox to tie the game), I expect them to capitalize on their chances tonight and convert runners on base into runs.
3 units mostly due to the fact Di Nardo isn't a pitcher to trust and Boston bats are Boston bats. I think home park advantage and this small momentum A's are building up will make the difference over the weary Red Sox.
Leans (that probably won't be promoted to plays, as I already have more than enough in action, just for the information who I like):
SF (Cain)
Angels (RL) (Escobar) (strong lean)
Angels over 8.5
Game 2 ATL (Smoltz) - Florida (Van Den Hurk) Florida +1 (2.60)
Good luck tonight guys. :cheers: :shake:
Last edited:
. I won't be disappointed if it doesn't hit. I liked it, took it, no regrets. 
.
