MLB Tuesday

Satyr

Paster of Muppets
MLB 2007: 67 W-6V-55 L +70.27 units

Let's bounce back off an unlucky night.


Braves (Smoltz) (1.96 @ Pinnacle) 7 units

Smoltz opened as a dog? I took it back then but I'll post an actual line (as always, which is still takeable in my eyes). Now a PK and I still see value in taking the Braves. I'm aware they're missing Chipper Jones but Atlanta has a rather versatile, powerful lineup.
We're talking about the best pitcher in the NL, Smoltz is 7-2, 2.58 ERA, and he just held Mets and Red Sox bats back to back, several big bats there, excellent lineups, but Smoltz did the job.
The Braves (29-22) are an impressive 9-2 in Smoltz's 11 starts. These Braves just step up for Smoltz and there's no denying that.
On the other side, we have the Brew Crew, who are coming back to Earth. These guys have lost 6 in a row and scored 13 runs in 7 games. Milwaukee has been outscored 27-13 during its season-high six-game losing streak, batting just .200 during that stretch. The NL Central-leading Brewers have dropped 12 of their last 15 games and been held to three runs or less in 11 of those contests.
The Braves aren't hot either (5-10 in last 15), but their slump isn't nearly as big as the Brewers' one. Milwaukee just can't hit the ball right now, and even though they're sending out Sheets (4-3, 3.75 ERA), he had some blister problems on his throwing hand and he's going to have a hard task of waking Brewers' bats up, I think the Braves do the job behind the best pitcher in the NL.


Orioles (Guthrie) (1.79 @ Pinnacle) 8 units

The Royals are ready to go on another losing streak. After winning 6 out of 7, the Royals are in a hole again, and have been outscored 45-11 during a five-game losing streak.
O's send out Jeremy Guthrie (2-1, 3.09 ERA), who's flying under the radar, this guy has had nothing but quality starts, but unfortunately O's pen blew it several times for him. However, he's faced far better lineups than cold KC bats, and I expect him to dominate tonight, probably as Baltimore dominates the Royals usually (24-5 in last 29). Guthrie's last 3 games ERA is 1.61.
Jorge De La Rosa (4-4, 4.65 ERA), on the other hand, has been shelled by Cleveland in his last outing. His night starts were sub par so far (2-4, 5.94 ERA).
Guthrie has had a sub par record against KC (10.1 IP, 6.10 ERA), but he's been a different, more confident pitcher this year, and despite the fact Grudzielanek and Pena are actually hitting (both .435 in last 23 AB), they don't seem to be putting the runs on board.
Baltimore leads season series 4-0 (25-7 run difference), I think they make it 5 tonight. KC bats are cold as ice, they're in one of their trademark huge slumps, and the O's are producing, especially Tejada (9-for-19 with three home runs and nine RBIs in his last five games), Roberts (19 stolen bases this year, 17-for-39 (.436) with eight runs scored and six steals in his last 10 contests), and Melvin Mora. Payton (.444 in last 18 AB) and Markakis have been doing the job as well.

I'll possibly add one or two more later on. Good luck guys. Let's do this! :shake: :cheers:
 
You have a good read on Smoltz, he is solid, the only question now is where is the middle relief gonna come from...We really only have soriano and yates as reliable middle relievers, as long as they stay solid then the braves we keep rolling with Smoltz, either way the Braves are solid tonight for obvious reasons, I dont understatnd that line but I will be all over it when bodog posts it, possibly a 5 unit play for me, which is a large play in my unit system. Cant trust the Orioles though, gl Sat, keep up the good work.....
 
NY Mets (RL) (2.60 @ Pinnacle) 5 units

Don't get me wrong, I love what Tim Lincecum has shown so far. This guy is the real deal. 2-0, 3.08 ERA and he has some nasty stuff let me tell you. But you can't make serious conclusions based on facing teams like Houston (twice), Philadelphia (during their lousy streak, he was still shelled) and Colorado (Coors isn't as hitters' friendly park as in previous seasons). He had 3 quality starts so far but...

This is the real deal. The New York Mets. The scariest lineup in the NL, and they'll have a solid southpaw Oliver Perez (6-3, 2.54 ERA) on the mound tonight. He has boasted a 1.17 ERA in his last 3 starts, and has been quite solid and consistent at home: Perez has won his last four home starts with a 1.91 ERA, but has not fared well against San Francisco in his career, going 0-4 with a 6.23 ERA in seven starts. Despite those struggles, he's gotten the better of Bonds, holding him to one hit in nine at-bats with four strikeouts.
The Giants are losers of 3 straight and have Ray Durham struggling with injury.
To conclude: I think Lincecum might come down to Earth after posting consecutive quality starts, he is facing a true test tonight and I think Perez breaks the duck with his first win over the Giants.
Bonds doesn't particularly like Shea, Durham is hurt, and the Giants are coldish, losing 3 straight.
I considered playing Mets on the ML for 8 units but decided for this, riskier but juicier option, with lesser stake. The RL price is more than rewarding.
I just don't see how the Giants provide adequate run support for the kid, knowing the current situation in both teams.
The Mets roll in this one, 6-2 is my call.
 
JRose, thanks for the GL, but as a KC fan (homer?) I would like to hear your thoughts. Do you think your boys step up tonight or will they fall apart? This Guthrie guy has impressed so far and I'm riding with him.
GL tonight. :shake:


Troutman
: thanks for the heads up for the Bravos pen. I just have to take Smoltz in this one, and I think the Brewers look like a .500 team right now. ALL THAT HYPE and for what? They're cold as ice right now. I'm aware the Braves aren't blazing either, but I think they're the better team, and Smoltz is the better pitcher.
The O's...well obviously I'm not a fan either, but KC are a fade material right now, and you have several guys KILLING the ball for Baltimore right now, while in KC nothing is clicking as it should. I think Baltimore wins this one.

Anyways, thanks for the feedback. Good luck. :shake: :cheers:
 
leans (probably small plays in a couple of doubles)
Florida (Willis)
Chicago White Sox (Danks)
LAA/Seattle OVER 9.5



Good luck guys. :cheers:
 
I think the Braves play is solid, anytime you get a pitcher of that caliber, at that price, you have to take the play based on value alone...Smoltz is the real deal maybe even the NL Cy Young winner if he can keep it up.....
 
Good luck Satyr.

Baltimore is also hitting lefties better, .300 last 10, vs .272 vs righties.
 
Beautiful write up bro..keep up the good job....I LOVE THE METS RL....good value..the phillies abused that kid and i know they mets are pretty good hitters so i don't get it.........what do you think over 7 1/2 on the mets game
 
I like the Orioles a lot, I prob won't go near the Brew Crew game, think I can pick some spots elsewhere but that is more of a game I wouldn't mind watching but don't want my money near. I have watched Guthrie pitch several times now and he is def under the radar. De La Rosa, you don't really know what your are getting with him but more often a bad start than a quality start. Orioles bullpen is always my concern but I think I can deal with it here for a cheap price on Guthrie
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">GL Satyr! On the O's tonight too.
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driver - GL tonight :shake:

EAGLES - Well I definitely lean over and think the margin is a tad low. Thanks man. Good luck tonight :cheers:

Green - as I said, I couldn't have missed that one. Mainly a KC fade, but also a play on a rather streaky team (which just happens to be a winning streak at the moment). De La Rosa was great a few weeks ago but he regressed A LOT, and the O's are hot, some of them at least. I think it should be enough.
Good luck tonight let's cash in! :cheers:


Terpman - let's nail those Orioles :cheers: :shake: GL


Troutman- Bravos it is buddy! :cheers:


Santa - Thanks :shake: :cheers: Good luck


ReNew - I definitely need a bounceback after what happened last night. I would satisfy with a 2-1 night, trust me. I'm a down to Earth guy :D.
:cheers: GL tonight bro


Hile - thanks, I like what they have to offer here and I love the price. ML was an option as well, definitely takeable. Cheers, GL tonight. :cheers:
 
JRose, thanks for the GL, but as a KC fan (homer?) I would like to hear your thoughts. Do you think your boys step up tonight or will they fall apart? This Guthrie guy has impressed so far and I'm riding with him.
GL tonight. :shake:


Probably wont make a play on this game tonight. First of all, it wouldn't be in anyone's best interest to back the Royals right now. Atleast not until they show some sort of offense. The team held a "batters only" meeting today. Not sure that will do much of anything. But they did discuss situational hitting, which has been a big problem for them- stranding baserunners, etc. Who knows? DeJesus's slump has really hurt the offense as well. Then, the pitching hasn't been much better. You brought up some good points about De La Rosa's struggles. However, he did have some really good starts at home not long ago. In addition, that last game against the Indians where he got lit up, he had 2 outs in the first inning before all of the damage was allowed. Apparently he felt he got pinched on a few pitches and got rattled. It was all down hill after that. Also, Cleveland has had a history of roughing him up in the past. I think he is better than what he has shown the last 2 starts.

I guess the play would be Baltimore and/or under if anything. But I'm not real crazy about Baltimore on the road. And as impressive as Guthrie's numbers have been, it is still a pretty small sample size. I think the Royals offense is capable of more than what they have been showing, but when they get in these slumps, they can stay for awhile. GL with the play.
 
Thank JRose, useful feedback. :shake: GL tonight :cheers:


Btw guys, Mets - SF had ZERO baserunners up until bottom 4th, and only after Lincecum walked Beltran. What a fucking strange game :D
 
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