MLB Tuesday bases

Satyr

Paster of Muppets
Ok, these are the early thoughts.


Tigers -1
I'm capping some bases at the moment, and the Tigers made it on my shortlist immediately, Verlander is solid, and the Brewers are 9-18 in last 27 games, Suppan has had some sub par starts in the past month and the Brewers just aren't doing the job at the moment. The price isn't that appetizing and I did get burned on some runline plays lately so I might be tempted to take the -1 line.

Angels ML
Love the Angels too, just don't see what these Reds have, absolutely no heart this year. Escobar had one sub par start, then a great one, time for another great one I think, he's not that shaky this year, and the Halos are blazing right now. I just hope they'll take their chances unlike that game against St Louis, when they failed to score with 4 runners on and 0 outs, I think it was 4-3 Halos at that point, that was the turning point of the game, as Pujols blasted a 3 run homer shortly afterwards and St Loo took the lead.
The Reds are nowhere that good right now, guys like Hamilton, Griffey jr and Freel, they're just not producing enough to cope with the Angels.
The thing is, they won their game against Sabathia, and that was because the Indians are slowing down when putting runs on the board is concerned. Angels aren't.


Arizona / Washington
As far as dog plays are concerned, I'm leaning both the Snakes with Webb (at that price I don't care how hot Yankee bats are, we're talking ace pitcher, NL Cy Young) and the Nationals with Bowie, who has been quite efficient, and when you look at it, the Nats aren't weaker than the O's in terms of consistency this year. The O's are in a hole, Cabrera had 1 good start after a few bad ones, I don't think him starting warrants such price to be honest.


A's
I also made a mental note some time ago to fade Oswalt no matter what, this guy hasn't been as sharp as he used to be (I'm sure he'll bounce back just not now), and the Astros are clueless. These guys aren't hitting at all and playing against the A's who have been finding ways to win and are 8-2 in June (nothing new there haha ;)) I have to take a shot with the A's and quite solid Kennedy, who has had a similar problem as Oswalt in terms of run support (or lack of).

That's what I'm looking at as of now, I might add something and not take something else but these are the early leans.:cheers: :dance3: money;
 
our heads are in the same place today buddy.

I actually really love the Tigers, I like the Angels, and the A's caught my eye but run support pisses me off

Also, Freel is on the DL
 
Dynomite, these aren't plays yet, just leans so far. I'll post the plays later on. :cheers: :shake:
 
Saw your Angels post in IC thread but I will just respond here..

The thing that bothers me is that I am big on value and I hate getting on the end of the train. If I was more sure about this game, I could of had it for -126 last night which imo is an absolute STEAL.. Now at -149, on one of my regular bets its more than an extra $100 lay for me, and if nothing else it bothers me.

Angels just 16-15 on the road and that bothers me as well but 7-1 in last 8 Interleague games.

Angels are hitting the ball right now though, have scored 4 or more runs in their last 8 games.

Reds hare a bad team, Arroyo is a bad starter right now but man I would hate to have this shit team take my money.

Arroyo has faced the Angels in 5games from his days with the RSox...

Anderson = .375 in 8ab (probable today), Figgins = .308 in 13ab, Vlad = .333 in 12ab, Kotchman - .444 in 9ab (probable today), Matthews = .111 in 9ab, Hillenbrand = .167 in 24ab, Cabrera = .111 in 9ab


Arroyo started the yr fine, was just a victim on run support then after a 8ip-10h-3r-1er-2bb-6k LOSS vs. San Diego where he threw 129pitches he has gone on to get toasted in his next four starts giving up 6,6,8,6 er.

Before the San Diego game he threw 120 and 117 pitches so he stringed together 3 straight starts, all on 5days rest, of an average of 122pitches... Last start he threw 119pitches, imo the Reds are killing his arm and that is why he is fade material.
 
definitely agree about balty being overpriced, seems to have dropped a few points since yesterday n ight so I guess the public also agrees with that.

actually I agree with all of those :D
 
Ok, finalized the card. I'll update my record later on. A lot of plays for tonight for me.

Tigers (Verlander) (-1,5) (2.25 @ Pinnacle) 6 units

Detroit are hitting again and they're send out one of their most consistent pitchers in Justin Verlander (6-2, 3.12 ERA), who is 5-1 in last 6 starts and bounced back nicely following his worst start of the year and the only sub par one, at the Jake, when he allowed 7 ER in 5 innings. In his last start Verlander gave up 5 hits in 7 innings of work, while the Tigers beat Texas 10-0.

The Brewers have slowed down following a great start into the season, and are only 9-18 since May 12. The Brewers were already criticized before for being an average team in a sub par division, and are now showing signs of it. The Tigers, on the other hand, have won six of eight, and have scored a major league-best 374 runs. The Tigers are 5-1 in interleague play.

They have Ordonez and Guillen listed as probable, I expect both to play. Jeff Suppan (7-6, 3.92 ERA) wasn't that bad this season but Verlander is something else (3-1, 3.82 ERA at home this year). Suppan got shelled last time out against the Cubs. He is 3-4, 4.17 ERA on the road in 2007.
Detroit pen definitely isn't trustable but Tigers offense has been producing and I can't neglect that fact.

Love the plus money at the RL.



Athletics (Kennedy) (2.53 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
Under 7.5 (2.00 @ Pinnacle) 3 units



Can't see passed the A's in June value here. The Astros are a clueless team and even though Oswalt (6-4, 3.38 ERA) will get the nod, and he is 4-1 at home this year (1.74 ERA), the Astros bats are just cold at the moment. The A's on the other hand, are starting to peak and they're winning games in all possible ways. It's very hard to beat them right now and even though they don't have many power hitters in the lineup, they have superior pitching and defense when these two teams are concerned and easily get the edge in all other factors except for starting pitching tonight.
However, Joe Kennedy (2-4, 3.23 ERA) has been very good this year, even though he lacked getting the adequate run support from the team, which is slowly changing.
Kennedy has pitched twice over the last 13 games, allowing one run in eight innings of Oakland's 10-inning, 3-2 loss to Minnesota on June 1 and two runs in seven innings of Wednesday's 3-2 win over Boston. The victory was the first since May 10 for Kennedy, who has allowed three or fewer runs in all but one of his 11 starts this season, but has often been plagued by a lack of run support.

The A's are just too good right now and Astros' pen is shaky, their offense isn't stepping up, and frankly I don't see where their edge could be tonight.
Also putting some on the under is a good idea, minus the Astros' pen, pitching tonight will be filthy and neither of the two teams are known for top notch offense.


Nationals (Bowie) (2.64 @ Pinnacle) 3 units

Micah Bowie (2-2, 3.79 ERA) has been quite solid in his last couple outings for the Nats, and Baltimore are definitely overrated here. They're a streaky team, they're either winning, you better stay clear when they do, or they can't hit a house.
Right now, it's the no hit mode which is turned "on".
I don't see how Daniel Cabrera (5-6, 4.70 ERA) is a guarantee of such price, these two teams are actually rather close in terms of overall record and what they're showing this year. The Nats are playing without any pressure, and the O's are a disastrous 3-7 in last 10.
In going 2-0 over four starts, Bowie has posted a 3.86 ERA and limited opponents to a .200 batting average. Washington won all four of those starts, including a 6-5 victory over Pittsburgh on Wednesday as Cristian Guzman scored the winning run on a wild pitch in the bottom of the ninth.


Cabrera, on the other hand, is 1-7 with a 6.35 ERA in 10 interleague starts, including a 9-5 loss June 25 against Washington. Cabrera gave up six runs, five hits and five walks in 4 2-3 innings. His 41 walks lead the AL.
Enough to warrant a play on such price if you ask me.



Angels (Escobar) (-1) (1.82 @ Pinnacle) 6 units


The Halos are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, and Kelvim Escobar (7-3, 2.76 ERA) isn't that hittable. His poor start is usually followed by at least a couple quality ones. And he already got shelled two games ago, I don't think he'll allow too many tonight, despite the fact Cincinnati have some big bats in their lineup.
The Angels are still the better team here, and Bronson Arroyo (2-7, 5.01 ERA) has been on my fade list for a while now. I'm aware he has more quality than 2-7 but this year he's not doing it for this team, and they're not scoring for him.
The Angels should have both Anderson and Kotchman in the lineup tonight.


Texas - Pittsburgh over 9.5 (2.06 @ Pinnacle) 5 units

writeup later on, don't have time now, gotta rush out. Many total guys already explained this one more than I will anyway.

that's it for me for tonight. GL. :cheers: :shake:
 
satyr, couldnt agree more about oswalt.....great name, not so productive, kinda like willis this season IMO. gl tonite
 
I just want to get a split in the remaining two bets, Oakland and Seattle, and apparently I won't be able to do that...frustrating a bit...
 
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