MLB Tuesday-- a first for me

[tee*dub]

wk of 7/28, 7-5, (+1395)

wk of 8/4, 8-2, (+9400)

wk of 8/11, 10-2, (+15461)

wk of 8/18, 0-1, (-2175)


Total last couple weeks; 25-10, (+24,071)


__________________________________________________

0-1 yesterday and the first multiple unit loss in a long time.. Pissed about it as everything looked just swell with Douchebag going down with injury. Twins decided give the game away. No way they should not have scored against those relievers.. Oh well. Move on.

Doing two things I never do. I can't remember the last time I played a RL, if ever. I philisophically and mathmatically disagree with everything about them (but that is a different thread).. I also never tail, mostly because I feel no one is as talented as I am

Tonight I am doing both:

A 100% straight tail of Satyr on:

Cardinals RL -1.5, 2 units


You better not be wrong son:eyes:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Nice if your going to break a rule might as well break 2 rules!

WHat do you think of FLORIDA?

 

[nawlins51]

Well I never play RL's.Tonight on the Twins RL. I hope it hits for you but I would be a nervous mofo with the Cards bullpen. The game is never out of reach for the opposing team till the last out.Thats how shitty there bullpen is.Twins aren't much better though. Hopefully we both do well.

I tail when I get cold.I still think I am #1...lol

GL Teedub

 

[Satyr]

:smiley_acbe:

Let's roll

Your boys bring the cash tonight :cheers:

In short:

• Cards are tired of the zig-zag theory.
  

  Recent Meetings
  Date 	Home/Away 	M/L 	O/U 	Home Starter 	IP 	Away Starter 	IP
  07/13/08 	PIT 6 - STL 11 	STL -109 	O 9.5 	Ian Snell 	5.0 	Joel Pineiro 	5.2
  07/12/08 	PIT 12 - STL 11 PIT 110 	O 9 	Yoslan Herrera 	4.1 	Todd Wellemeyer 	6.1
  07/11/08 	PIT 0 - STL 6 	STL -119 	U 8.5 	Zach Duke 	6.0 	Kyle Lohse 	7.0
  06/02/08 	STL 4 - PIT 5 	PIT 173 	O 8.5 	Adam Wainwright 	8.0 	Tom Gorzelanny 	6.0
  06/01/08 	STL 7 - PIT 4 	STL -135 	O 9 	Braden Looper 	5.2 	Ian Snell 	4.0
  05/31/08 	STL 4 - PIT 14 	PIT 118 	O 9.5 	Mike Parisi 	2.2 	Paul Maholm 	6.2
  05/30/08 	STL 5 - PIT 4 	STL -161 	P 9 	Todd Wellemeyer 	7.0 	Zach Duke 	6.0
  05/15/08 	STL 5 - PIT 11 	PIT 112 	O 9 	Joel Pineiro 	5.0 	Ian Snell 	4.0
  05/14/08 	STL 5 - PIT 1 	STL -154 	U 8.5 	Todd Wellemeyer 	7.0 	Paul Maholm 	6.0
  05/13/08 	STL 4 - PIT 8 x 	PIT 140 	O 9 	Kyle Lohse 	7.0 	Phil Dumatrait 	6.0
  04/24/08 	PIT 2 - STL 6 	STL 113 	U 9.5 	Tom Gorzelanny 	5.0 	Joel Pineiro 	7.0
  04/23/08 	PIT 7 - STL 4 	PIT -113 	O 8.5 	Ian Snell 	6.0 	Todd Wellemeyer 	6.0
  2007 Season
  09/30/07 	PIT 5 - STL 6 	STL -118 	O 9.5 	Bryan Bullington 	5.0 	Troy Percival 	1.0

  
  
  STL wins 2 in a row for the first time since 2007.
  
• Ian Snell v STL (19 IP, 32 H, 19 ER, an ERA of 9.00)
  Ian Snell on the road 1-7, 7.83 ERA
• STL best lineup core in the NL
• 2 games behind Milwaukee for the Wild card
• STL v RHP last 10, .298
  PIT v RHP last 10, .237
• Looper has been solid, an arm to rely on.
• Pittsburgh has Mientkiewicz out as well, not a big bat but it limits their options which have been limited as it is following the trades of Nady and Bay.
• Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 games following an off day

It should be enough...opcorn:

 

[Fondybadger]

GL tw's, here I thought the thread would be about you losing your virginity

 

[Blue_Chip]

now you have me tailing

satyr... :eyes:haha

 

[tee*dub]

I would be a nervous mofo with the Cards bullpen.

Thanks Naw. IN all honesty I am very comfortable with the current setup of the Cards bullpen.. The guys that had problems are no longer in prominent roles (Izzy and Franklin) Izzy doesn't even sniff the mound in a close game and Franklin is a 6th or 7th inning guy now. The way Looper has been throwing, the middle relief isn't needed.. In crunch time, its Garcia, McClelland, and Perez at the end.. Check those guys numbers.

It is a big flaw around here that the Cards pitching is horrible.. It is a bit above average with current group and the back end of the bullpen is very strong now IMO..

This is my strategy and I know several guys around here use it; some don't.. Stats that go beyond 4 or 5 weeks are generally useless especially when it comes to team Era, bullpen era etc.. Just one mans opinion.

BUT anyway you may be right. This isn't may pick anyway. Its Satyr's .. Bitch at him if he is wrong...:36_11_6::whip:

 

[tee*dub]

now you have me tailing

satyr... :eyes:haha

A tail of a tail:new_shocked::hammer:

 

[tee*dub]

GL tw's, here I thought the thread would be about you losing your virginity

In a way, I did.. :36_11_6:

 

[bull]

tailing tee*dub, tailing satyr. Not overly fond of RL myself.
Took St Louis -1 at about -165
GL tee
GL satyr

 

[nawlins51]

I hear you TeeDub. The Cards just have burned me several times this year.I just don't trust them. It will hit for yall. GL tonight.

 

[tee*dub]

Nice if your going to break a rule might as well break 2 rules!

WHat do you think of FLORIDA?

Thinking about breaking a third rule once Mrs Tee*dub goes to bed tonight:smiley_acac:

Florida-- Did they start to hit again? Probably a decent play Sammy but at that juice with a team that has been so bad offensively of late-- it was the first game I crossed off.. Not saying, gun to my head I wouldn't play Florida, I just eliminate many games from the start and that one was obvious... Tough card for sure.. GL if you play it

 

[Mags]

Had a couple of RL's in mind...STL, NYM and CHC. Think I may play each for a little per. BOL to ya bro!

 

[tee*dub]

My attorneys have asked me to place this disclaimer in the thread:

Though Tee*dub played a RL today he is NOT endorsing the use of them on any basis. This applys to Tee*dub and all of his affiliates..

:cheers:


psst"secret:-- RLs do not reduce vig, they just put it in a different spot

 

[TheSportsThing]

Hate RL's myself so I'ma look for a game with a decent line that I like. BOL on the play.

 

[Satyr]

psst"secret:-- RLs do not reduce vig, they just put it in a different spot

Exactly. But picking your spots well with the RLs you are mostly turning big favorites into pick em or dog bets hence forming a solid invest-return ratio. You are having a bigger obstacle to overcome since teams obviously don't have to win by 2 or more to win the game, especially when you're betting on the home team to cover the +1,5 RL, they're not batting 9th so that looks like an even worse deal.

Still, I prefer RLs in front of parlaying two (or more ) ML bets since statistically you are still playing one of the two possible outcomes, while with parlays it tends to get more complicated.

But I agree, people that think they are outsmarting the bookie by laying 1.5 mindlessly have another thing coming.

 

[Mags]

TD - avatar is money (in more ways than one I guess huh?)!

 

[tee*dub]

Exactly. But picking your spots well with the RLs you are mostly turning big favorites into pick em or dog bets hence forming a solid invest-return ratio. You are having a bigger obstacle to overcome since teams obviously don't have to win by 2 or more to win the game, especially when you're betting on the home team to cover the +1,5 RL, they're not batting 9th so that looks like an even worse deal.

Still, I prefer RLs in front of parlaying two (or more ) ML bets since statistically you are still playing one of the two possible outcomes, while with parlays it tends to get more complicated.

But I agree, people that think they are outsmarting the bookie by laying 1.5 mindlessly have another thing coming.

was afraid this thread might turn into a RL vs ML discussion..No disrespect meant but:

Actually agree with part of it Satyr but simply stated,

1)Lets assume the books know what they are doing and have profit margins built in on all plays.

2)Lets also assume that RL plays are especially attractive to inexperienced gamblers particularly those that frequent Vegas on the weekend (not saying any of the CTG regulars fit this category, just saying the RL bet in general is attractive to the novice gambler... akin to the over bet on totals.)

3) assuming you agree with number 2 at least from an intellectual standpoint, vegas will always overweight the vig in their favor on "public type" plays (see my manifesto on taking even money on 21s vs dealer Ace).. In other words , if vegas allows it, and it is somewhat exotic, run from it..

Not saying they should never be used but if you like a team but need a RL "vig reducer" to play it, buyer beware.. If you bet the ML 100 times on that bet vs the RL 100 times you will with certainty be further ahead with the ML bet..

Best approach-- avoid all games with over 150 number unless playing the dog and if playing the dog do so with incredible discipline and a long term strategy.. Garfather like if you will..

Just one mans opinion..

 

[tee*dub]

TD - avatar is money (in more ways than one I guess huh?)!

avatar X 5..:cheers:

 

[Satyr]

Pittsburgh draws first blood...ahh


horrid period for me these days man, can't hit anything.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Hang in there old Buddy SATRY, the game is 9 innings, Pitts has my number also but we will score also, its Tuesday a great day for St Louis to win a game in front of the st Louis fans--

 

[Satyr]

Hang in there old Buddy SATRY, the game is 9 innings, Pitts has my number also but we will score also, its Tuesday a great day for St Louis to win a game in front of the st Louis fans--

:shake:

 

[tee*dub]

Looper settling in nicely... Always been leary of Ian Snell. Has talent but very little focus.. Looks decent tonight but he usually has a bad inning or two.:cheers:

 

[barmeezee]

bullpen will blow it.. no worries here

 

[linewatcher]

i hope you guys are right...i friggin hate ian snell and the butt pirates...

 

[Satyr]

where's that Blankets nailbiting emoticon when a guy needs one...

 

[Blue_Chip]

Always been leary of Ian Snell. Has talent but very little focus.. Looks decent tonight but he usually has a bad inning or two.

That'd be nice right about now, as he has a 2-hitter in the 6th!

 

[Satyr]

:4_6_202v:

 

[linewatcher]

**sigh** friggin butt pirates.

 

[pigeon]

this was a good pick, snell beat us. looper gave up only 1 run and continued his great form.