MLB - Tuesday 9/9

GameHunter

GameHunter

Pretty much a regular
Another profitable day on Monday. Hoping to keep the momentum going:

WASHINGTON 1ST 5 INNS +183 (1.75 UNITS)

UNDER WASH/NYM 1ST 5 INNS 4.5 (-105) (2.5 UNITS)

TAMPA BAY +148 (1.75 UNITS)

OAKLAND +137 (1.75 UNITS)

KANSAS CITY +195 (1 UNIT)

PITTSBURGH +183 (1 UNIT)

--waiting for lineups on Tor/WSox 2pm EST game
 
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MusicCityGambler said:
I love the Nats first 5. DC has played much better lately and Lannan is tough on the road.
Click to expand...

Here's what I wrote in BC's thread:

John Lannan has been a road warrior for the Nats and one of the best road pitchers in the NL. In 15 road starts this year, he has tossed 96.3 innings and has a 2.71 ERA and .238 average allowed. What I find more interesting, is how solid he is over the first 5 innings on the road. If you ignore his last road start, a day game at Wrigley where the wind was blowing out and Lannan actually got the win, here are the runs Lannan has allowed in the first 5 innings in his 14 other road starts: 0,0,0,1,1,0,2,2,0,2,1,0,0,2. Those are not earned run totals, but actual run totals he has allowed. I think it's quite amazing. I think that is a strong reason to play Lannan at +major juice today in the first 5 innings. Here are the total runs scored by both teams in all 15 of Lannan's road starts:

4,0,2,1,4,3,1,2,3,1,4,3,1,3,2

All 15 of Lannan's road games have gone UNDER 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings.
 
Great find on Lannan regardless of how it plays out..

Got down on the Nym 1st 5 Under for 3 Units (6 being my max) GL w those dogs and keep up the sweet run in all sports...

:shake:
 
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Good Luck GH.

Like Nats probably go full game though as nats should send out a solid lineup to face a LHP . Looking at the OVER though but your stats may keep me off that .

Like KC as well Bannister has pitched well of late and while its a roll of the dice and nearly +200 its worth it ...(I think )

Obligated after yesterday to play OAK again I think ...was I day early ?

Thinking about TB but prefer OVER and just dont see any positives for the Rays here ...Boston better SP and better lineup and pen ...

Pitt is a tough game but leaned Houston though Ohlendorf has a good matchup . He sort comes three quarters and should be most effectibe vs RHBs when he is right but early on with NYY he was flying open way to early and he hung alot of breaking pitches over the middle -outer portion of the plate . Plus the hitter sees the ball earlier and everything he throws will be over the plate....just think Pitt away and vs LHP could be a struggle and I am no fan of Randy Wolf ...only play this if I deem-1.5 as having value .....

:cheers:
 
Good to see u Beccom.....

Be sure to check out Betcrimes' and Shortline's threads particularly between 6:15-6:45pm EST before games kickoff...full of information and insight.
 
SportsNut said:
Good Luck GH.

Like Nats probably go full game though as nats should send out a solid lineup to face a LHP . Looking at the OVER though but your stats may keep me off that .

Like KC as well Bannister has pitched well of late and while its a roll of the dice and nearly +200 its worth it ...(I think )

Obligated after yesterday to play OAK again I think ...was I day early ?

Thinking about TB but prefer OVER and just dont see any positives for the Rays here ...Boston better SP and better lineup and pen ...

Pitt is a tough game but leaned Houston though Ohlendorf has a good matchup . He sort comes three quarters and should be most effectibe vs RHBs when he is right but early on with NYY he was flying open way to early and he hung alot of breaking pitches over the middle -outer portion of the plate . Plus the hitter sees the ball earlier and everything he throws will be over the plate....just think Pitt away and vs LHP could be a struggle and I am no fan of Randy Wolf ...only play this if I deem-1.5 as having value .....

:cheers:
Click to expand...
always good insight SN.

Gonzalez worried me yesterday for the A's...he just doesn't throw strikes...I think Eveland gives a much better investment opportunity against the Tigers who have been struggling against lefties at home...Ohlendorf still gets it up there around 95mph....I am a value player....if this game is Houston -135-140, I see the point, but at almost 200, it's ridiculous....too many people jumping on the Astros right now envisioning they may be last season's Rockies, and who knows, maybe they will be, but the line is just not justified. :shake:
 
GameHunter said:
always good insight SN.

Gonzalez worried me yesterday for the A's...he just doesn't throw strikes...I think Eveland gives a much better investment opportunity against the Tigers who have been struggling against lefties at home...Ohlendorf still gets it up there around 95mph....I am a value player....if this game is Houston -135-140, I see the point, but at almost 200, it's ridiculous....too many people jumping on the Astros right now envisioning they may be last season's Rockies, and who knows, maybe they will be, but the line is just not justified. :shake:
Click to expand...

Agreed with Gio . I wasnt backing him really OAK hoping he could survive. I gambled and lost. I sort of look at much of this with an out of the box viewpoint . Det showed signs of finally getting hot vs LHSP which scared me but they had been 2-8 L10 and dropped 6 straight vs LHSP at home . Trust me when I tell you I know the difference bewteen a quality LH and the blessing of being LH . Most of the guys were just LH's below medicore levels . So I thought since Oak had finally started to hit some recently they could outscore Det here especially having a wide gap in the pen . I dont expect miracles but had hoped Gio could give me 5 inn and 3 runs with hope then pen could give up no more then 1 or 2 runs the rest of the way . I felt OAK could get 5 or 6 for a few reasons. Anyway Gio had his chance spotted a 2-0 lead and was 1 out away from getting out of the 1st but allowed two 2 out Hrs and then was crap in the 2nd inning. Good news was OAK had 8 runs by the 5th inning but did zip after that.

That mattered for today becaude while Eveland is alot better then Gio at this point his command can be an issue . Which if DET starts hitting up to capabilities vs LHSP with the depth of RH studs -Mags , Cabrera , Sheff and Thames( he is a stud vs LHP) alot of damage can be done . Also though since there negative trend lasted so long one could expect there positive trend to be of near equal length possibly longer .

So I thin Robertson is weak but he did pitch well last outing vs OAK.


With pitt again issue is they are 1-9 L10 games vs LHSP and havent hit much in those games . However it may be a sign they got to Sanchez on Sunday for 5 runs early which they ultimately allowed a 10 spot soon after . They are just 26-55 L81 away about 32 % and 26-46 in 2008 or 36% ..which basically is about a 1 in 3 chance of winning or in line terms fair value or near -200 .

Not a fan of Houston but they are winning due to very good SP for a long stretch now. They are 40-29 at home . Pitt swept them at HOUSTON and was 7-2 vs them entering this series leading me to believe Houston will not take them lightily . Yesterday Pitt had a nice SP edge but still lost 3-2 getting some late runs . Also Houston is now 16-4 at home since Pitt swept them and probably woke them up . In 16 wins they allowed 5 runs 1x and 4runs 4 x otherwise 3runs 1x otherwise 2runs 5x 1run 2x 0 runs 3x....

Robertson last start vs OAK was -150 vs Greg Smith who is better then Eveland and won 6-1.

A's have improved some vs LHSP away ..
4-1 L5 going 2-2 O/U in wins and 1-0 Over in the loss
Previous they were
4-14 vs LHSP going 4-0 UND in wins and 11-3 UND in losses .
In those 18 games scored 7runs and 5runs in wins , 4runs 2x , 3runs 2x 2runs 4x 1run 5x 0runs 3x....offense clearly limited....

Just cant back OAK HERE ...lean DET really ....maybe an under but thats so tough...

Pitt is 11-18 away since the break and 11-21 L32 away .....

With me big issue with ever laying -200 is the pitching . Will my SP give me 6 or 7 very high quality innings usually 0-2 runs maybe 3 depending on situation and can the pen shut them down the rest of the way. On paper hard to say I getthat from Houston except lately they have been doing it somehow as Valverde has stepped up.

Wolf has had alot of success in the past much long ago facing Pitt in his home park . Which also Wolf has started to pitch really well of late like the rest of the staff . HUGE ISSUE 128 pitches in his last start @ Cubbies. With HOU Wolf has 3 starts 4 er of 5 runs allowed in 21 inn vs mets , SF and STL. Hous has won all 3 and between SD and Hous at home Wolf is 10-4 in 2008 .

I cant trust the guy either to be honest though especially after a red flag 128 pitch CG which probably attracted attention . If this line was -200 and got bet down to -180 I would roll with Houston near -200 to -220 though its a pass as Houston seems a bit fat but has the resume to back it up especially knowing Pitt is 1-9 L10 away vs LHSP . I would be inclined to look at Pitt +1.5 though

BOL:cheers:
 
There just no way Hou would be -140 in this game maybe we could pray for -180 but -200 seemed inevitable . Pitt is a terrible team and Houston just being above 500 allows them to make Pitt nearly 2 to 1 dogs ...I think Pitt has a shot here but dont think I am playing it ....
 
under Pitt/hou 9.5 Runs (-115) (0.75 Units)
under Pitt/hou 1st 5 Inns 5 (+110) (0.75 Units)

st. Louis +101 (1.5 Units)
 
GL Game - Great stuff on Lannan. I've watched him pitch a lot this year and he's done a great job keeping the Nats hanging around despite their inability to score runs. Just amazing that all 15 have gone under on the road.
 
Timh said:
GL Game - Great stuff on Lannan. I've watched him pitch a lot this year and he's done a great job keeping the Nats hanging around despite their inability to score runs. Just amazing that all 15 have gone under on the road.
Click to expand...

thanks Tim....just to clarify, that's 15 road games that have gone under 4.5 runs for the first 5 innings....I did not check the 5 inning lines for those games (there may have been a push in there) but no game has reached 5 runs in the first 5 on the road all year. :shake:
 
Considering that ridiculous stat you had about the Braves' inability to win 1-run games, doesn't Cook v Campillo not seem like a good time to lay the -1.5?
 
counselor said:
Considering that ridiculous stat you had about the Braves' inability to win 1-run games, doesn't Cook v Campillo not seem like a good time to lay the -1.5?
Click to expand...

That trend has been a ROAD trend where the Braves have not won a road game by only 1 run in 13+ months...certainly reasons that it could be similar at home, but it doesn't follow the exact pattern. :shake:
 
this ump is straight up squeezin the shit outta perez... win or lose this was a good call cause this inning should be over... lets get to the 6th with it 2-2
 
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