MLB Tuesday 9/12

[Wiretowire]

YTD +2295

Back again after a very nice stay in Ft Myers. Wife is still there. She said fuck it I'm not leaving. Or she had a trade show starting Monday I forget which. Slept in late, great food, and just sat by the pool all day while some very nice people brought us drinks every 10 minutes.

All x50 each

KC/CHW #1 over 8 - Starting pitchers lately just wow!
Ana/Sea over 7 - This is only 7 1/2 because it's in Seattle. Anywhere else with these two starters and the total would be 9.

GL

 

[inZane]

Glad to see you're back and all rested up Wire. Good luck today, my man...

:cheers3:

 

[number2]

@Wiretowire

You an OG here…..wanna get your opinion on this….

I’m planning on playing -1.5 run lines on the favorites and then Alt RL on the Dogs……most of the times, run lines are at + odds, especially with the dog ALT RL….

I’m thinking of doing this starting next year….

I’ve seen days where games ending more than 1 runs ended at like 10-5…..11-4…..

Do you think this is profitable.

 

[cashflowmatters]

Nice to see you back at it w2w , GL on the action today and always

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks Inzane. I appreciate it. GL

Thanks Cash. Always appreciate it. GL

Thanks Number2. Let's look at stats for a minute and maybe that will shed some light on your question. In a study involving 50,000 games the favorite won by 1 run 56.9% of the time. The dog won by 1 run 43.1% of the time. It is an interesting idea because overall the games were decided by only 1 run in 30% of the total games. That leaves you an average winning this hedge at 70%. Damn good.

A quick look at recent games says that the average for a favorite in the -150 range works out to be -1 1/2 runs at +130 or so. If the favorite is -130 or less that jumps to +150. The dogs -1 1/2 runs in those same games are easily running +190. Seriously has opened my eyes and I am going to bet a couple of those tonight. One note though. I wouldn't do this with any odds where the favorite is -190 or higher on the ML. Favs that high even -1 1/2 runs are coming in at -100 or worse. GL

 

[Wiretowire]

ADDING>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

All x50 each

Pitt -1 1/2 -50/+65
Wash -1 1/2 -50/+95

Atl -1 1/2 -50/+70
Philies -1 1/2 -50/+100

Texas -1 1/2 -50/+70
Toronto -1 1/2 -50/+95

GL

 

[Wiretowire]

So cool! GL

 

[number2]

nowadays….the big favorites RL against the scrubs are higher than usual…..

That’s why I wanted to start fresh next season when the lines are much lower on the favorites…

GL tonight……I’m so tempted to play the rest of the season too…..

 

[chipnotized]

Thanks Inzane. I appreciate it. GL

Thanks Cash. Always appreciate it. GL

Thanks Number2. Let's look at stats for a minute and maybe that will shed some light on your question. In a study involving 50,000 games the favorite won by 1 run 56.9% of the time. The dog won by 1 run 43.1% of the time. It is an interesting idea because overall the games were decided by only 1 run in 30% of the total games. That leaves you an average winning this hedge at 70%. Damn good.

A quick look at recent games says that the average for a favorite in the -150 range works out to be -1 1/2 runs at +130 or so. If the favorite is -130 or less that jumps to +150. The dogs -1 1/2 runs in those same games are easily running +190. Seriously has opened my eyes and I am going to bet a couple of those tonight. One note though. I wouldn't do this with any odds where the favorite is -190 or higher on the ML. Favs that high even -1 1/2 runs are coming in at -100 or worse. GL

With the rule changes this season, the 1-run game percentage is well below the 28.6% historic average. The last number I have in my notes was roughly 24%...just before the all-star break.

Previously, a lot of those 1-run games were ones that went to extra innings...with the zombie runner on 2nd, a lot more crooked numbers are being put up in the extra frames and that's gold for runline (or reverse runline) bettors.