MLB Tuesday 8/30

[Wiretowire]

YTD +3215
1-1 last

All x50 each overs -140

Balt +2 1/2 -260 - Watkins just as good at Quantrill
Cubs/Toronto over 7 - Either starter could allow 6 so just find 1.
Colo +2 1/2 -120 - Yes, Fried should be favored here by -390. No, I'm still taking + runs.
AZ +2 1/2 -260 - Gallen hasn't allowed a run in like 300 innings and did the books not see the game last night when Philly blew a 7-0 lead and got hammered 13-7?
SD/SF over 7 - Both starters actually did allow 6 runs in their last.

GL

 

[inZane]

Good luck Wire, I love after I put my plays in and see we're on the same side of a few.

I don't understand how the Blue Jays are -215, yet the Cubs tt over 3* is -145, yet the Jays tt over 3* is only -130...

ondering:

 

[2daBank]

I lean O’s to win, Quantrill has been locking down some good lineups lately but don’t think that who he really is! Think balty can get a few off him, like their Ff tt ov1.5 (I’m a sucker for those 1.5 team totals where all ya need is a bloop and a blast to cash!).

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks Bank. I like Balt straight up as well. GL

Inzane, that doesn't make sense to me for a different reason. When the total is 7 1/2 one team has to be at 4 and the other at 3 1/2. Given that Stroman was smashed in his last it sounds to me like a bet on Tor over 3 1/2 is a sale of 1/2 a run and only -130. I think that's a book mistake and you should hit it. Remember too though ML odds don't have to match total odds. One can be -390 and that same side TT over 4 -120. if the total for the game is 7. GL

 

[lvmike32]

Hey Wire,

Would you consider the COL +2.5 the start of betting that Sept trend of the books setting high odds on teams needing to win vs. those out of it. Not sure since you say Atl deserves to be -390 in this one.

As much as I love CF, I plan to follow this trend you've mentioned and hope it will be profitable once again this Sept as it has in the past.

Just wondering if this is the start of those bets?? thanks, Mike

 

[Wiretowire]

lvmike, yes I would say this is the start of those plays. Atl does in fact deserve the -390 odds with who is pitching tonight but that doesn't mean they will win by 3. I will also say if you play this trend starting now then let's say your normal bet is $25 per game. Bet that amount $25 on the +2 1/2 and then bet $8 on the big dog straight up. You will be amazed how often the big favorite wins by 2 or 1 run and at least 1 out of 3 games the big dog wins outright. I never kept stats for this but I never got seriously hurt and often made a ton of money in Sept. GL

 

[lvmike32]

wire thanks - that makes sense to sprinkle 1/3 unit on the ML too.

sorry to bug you with another question on this - but you've always had some +2.5 lines going in your plays all season - is there a way to tell the difference, for lack of better terms, of your "Normal" +2.5 play that you've been doing all season vs. this "Sept Trend" +2.5 play? I haven't been tailing you this season or betting any baseball so don't want to start now (I plan too next season). But I would like to bet just these "Sept Trend" +2.5 plays you've discussed if there is a way to distinguish them. If not, no worries. Please let me know your thoughts. thanks, Mike

 

[2daBank]

wire thanks - that makes sense to sprinkle 1/3 unit on the ML too.

sorry to bug you with another question on this - but you've always had some +2.5 lines going in your plays all season - is there a way to tell the difference, for lack of better terms, of your "Normal" +2.5 play that you've been doing all season vs. this "Sept Trend" +2.5 play? I haven't been tailing you this season or betting any baseball so don't want to start now (I plan too next season). But I would like to bet just these "Sept Trend" +2.5 plays you've discussed if there is a way to distinguish them. If not, no worries. Please let me know your thoughts. thanks, Mike

I don’t wanna speak for wire but He doesn’t always come back to the days thread after this time so I’ll try to help. I could be wrong so if I am hopefully he correct me.

I think you kinda misunderstood or took it wrong, I don’t think there any kind of specific trend he was referring to play these in sept, he was just saying that after the rosters expand and we have the good teams playing the ones out of it we will see huge lines where you can actually get plus money while getting the +2.5, I don’t think it was meaning anything more than getting lots more chances to get them at cheap prices or plus money because there will be a lot more those crazy high lines in sept.

 

[lvmike32]

I don’t wanna speak for wire but He doesn’t always come back to the days thread after this time so I’ll try to help. I could be wrong so if I am hopefully he correct me.

I think you kinda misunderstood or took it wrong, I don’t think there any kind of specific trend he was referring to play these in sept, he was just saying that after the rosters expand and we have the good teams playing the ones out of it we will see huge lines where you can actually get plus money while getting the +2.5, I don’t think it was anything more than getting more chances to get them at cheap prices or plus money because there will be so many more of the -350/-400/etc lines as im not big into playing them when there lot of juice attached.

Thanks Bank. think you're probably right and that's why i asked. Have a feeling ive misunderstood.

 

[2daBank]

Thanks Bank. think you're probably right and that's why i asked. Have a feeling ive misunderstood.

Think I was the one asking him bout them and it strictly because I love the idea of getting those runs with small juice or plus!! If it was about a trend and not just getting way more chances to play them at better prices then I totally misunderstood! Happens to the best of us, glad I could clear it up,,

 

[Wiretowire]

Little more interesting question Mike. I have taken 3 +2 1/2 plays written up above. Two of those mention the pitchers as being equal or good enough to keep their team close. The 3rd is the Colo where I say Atl should win but I took the runs anyway. You could look for clues in my writeups but to tell you the truth you don't need to even read my posts at all. There is a much more simpler way to find these and it doesn't involve capping at all.

Look at the +2 1/2 runs offerings from your book. I use Betonline for 90% of my + runs plays. If a team is getting +2 1/2 runs and the odds are -140 or less you have exactly what you are looking for. In order to get runs and have odds less than -150 I promise you the favorite has to be at least -300. Another fact on this is no team is going to be favored over another -300 or higher unless the favored team is in the playoff hunt and the dog team is eliminated or at least very bad.

So all you have to do is look at your + runs offerings and when you see one at less than -150 bet it because I am absolutely sure you are betting the Sept trends. GL

 

[Wiretowire]

Yes bank is correct. I was typing my response when he answered. Look for runs at low odds (less than -150) and off you go. GL

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks Bank for answering. GL

 

[2daBank]

Thanks Bank for answering. GL

Didht mean to steal your thunder! If I knew you were answering I woulda let ya, lol. You usually don’t come back into your threads this late and just start over in morning responding in the new one!

 

[Wiretowire]

I am always glad when someone comes in if I haven't and answer. You are right I usually never come back but it's boring here at the cabin so I did. No TV just radio so I even started reading a book today. No thunder to steal my friend. Thanks. GL

 

[lvmike32]

Thanks Wire and Bank. Appreciate you taking the time. I completely understand it now. Just got bol set up for cf so we'll give it a go from here on out. Thanks again and gl.

 

[2daBank]

Thanks Wire and Bank. Appreciate you taking the time. I completely understand it now. Just got bol set up for cf so we'll give it a go from here on out. Thanks again and gl.

Be the 1st time I ever really played +2.5 also. I’ve always just ignored those monster sept lines cause it really tough to pick out the dog who gonna win (even tho some do), there no way im laying -300 or more on a Mlb team who wins maybe 63% their games on season at best! Think this +2.5 idea is really smart tho, couldn’t tell ya how many times I did try to play those big dogs in the past and they were heartbreaking late losses by 1-2 runs a ton! . I’ve picked up a couple neat tricks from other guys this year. 1st 5 team totals from @ScopeY, I have crushed those! Now gonna try these and think will do well. Added pitcher strike out props on my own and those been really nice also! Better in 1st half the year tho, lines have tightened on them.

 

[lvmike32]

thanks Bank. I have been reading some Baseball threads this year with the intent to start tailing some next season. I like to read the daily thread where you often talk about the strikeout props. Seems like you do well on them but I've never been able to piece together exact plays and results (but I haven't tried very hard either).

I've completely missed reading Scopes thread and will have to go back and reread them to understand the 1st 5 TT angle you say you've crushed. Thanks for highlighting. In reading threads on this site and the other site over the years, Baseball by far seems the hardest sport to beat consistently long-term. No one ever seems to win year over year. So playing things like Strikeout props, 1st 5 TT and these +2.5 runs plays may be the only way to go. I'll definitely give it all a good luck. Hope last month of the season goes well for you.

 

[2daBank]

Mostky just trying to find ways where I’m strictly capping 1 starter vs 1 lineup. I’ve always had pretty good knack for making pitcher stat lines in advance. It all the other shit where the game gets muddied up for me, pens, manager decisions, and all the other goofy shit that happens in a baseball game. Guess I never realized I could play 1 team total just for 5 innings. I love those as they almost always just genetic 1.5 or 2.5 (with some rare exceptions). As I like to say on over 1.5 all it takes a bloop and a blast or a few walks and a hit to cash! Pretty funny how many times I can get a solid righty against cws and all he gotta do is hold them under 3 for 5 innings! Most the time the fav gets a 2.5 line even tho some teams offenses are awfuk vs certain handed pitchers they still fav cause their pitcher so more times than not they get a 2.5 number!!

Or in this +2.5 case I’m learning from wire as he says there really not shit to cap or worry bout as you just playing on the fact baseball a very random sport so bad teams beat good ones all the time, throw in +2.5 imo especially against the home team where if it tied after 8 innings it will cash 90% the time!!


I’m a unusual person so maybe that why I’ve always found baseball to be the one I’m most consistently good at! The trick is embracing the fact it is totally random! Before I started learning all these other type plays all I did for years was play dogs and totals, I’m a strong believer that especially the 1st half the season you can find 3-7 plays a day where the game is basically a coin flip yet you getting anywhere from +120 to +150!! I always ask non gamblers who think im crazy “would you like to sit down and play heads or tails w me, everytime I win I get +125, yiu win you get 100”, that baseball to me!!

Little different now with these props but it still just about identifying things that will happen more times than odds suggest, early in the season they are way way off with their numbers/prices! I’ve found nba 3 point props are the same way but they catch up quicker, gotta just fire away the 1st month or 2 before they figure it out! With both the k props and the 3 point props early in the season they post very generic numbers (like the 1.5 and 2.5 on the 1st 5 team totals!) Generic numbers are the best!!! Kinda sucks I seriously just discovered props in every sport last year during nfl and ncaa, one day I was like why I waste so much time w dfs making my own stat lines but not betting this stuff???! Things been pretty damn good ever since! Lol. Last year in the bowls I did a running thread and hit a crazy high clip on the props, I’m super excited to do a full season of ncaa fb props! I got a few I think are really good coming this weekend