MLB Tuesday 6/8

[Wiretowire]

YTD +3968
Won the GS with no other bets.

All x50 each except NYY

LA ML -180
Colo +2 1/2 -160
SF/Tex over 8 -140
NYY ML +100 x100 - Love when a former pitcher (Pineda) plays his old team specially when he had a rough last start
Cle/STL over 7 -140
AZ/Oak over 8 -140

Grand Salami over 127 -110 x500

GL

 

[Wiretowire]

OK now here's a head scratcher. When I placed my GS bet at over 127 (5dimes.eu) the combined total of all game totals was 123 which means the books raised the GS 4 points over the combined total. That's not unusual as they will raise the GS 3-5 points over the combined totals. But now Betcris has the GS at 133 which is 7 points over the now combined totals of 126 for all games today. I get that the GS fluctuates based on how the lines move but I have never seen 7 points added. As I said, the most I've seen is 5 points.

Now here's my puzzle. The totals went up 3 points but the add on went up 7. It makes it tempting to take the under 133 and try to middle but are the books adding a ton more points because they think scoring will be that much higher today? If so trying to middle would be a mistake and cost me a great line on GS because if they score 135 runs today I would have turned a win of +500 into a loss of -50 and be really pissed at myself. Thoughts? GL

 

[wiseplayer]

OK now here's a head scratcher. When I placed my GS bet at over 127 (5dimes.eu) the combined total of all game totals was 123 which means the books raised the GS 4 points over the combined total. That's not unusual as they will raise the GS 3-5 points over the combined totals. But now Betcris has the GS at 133 which is 7 points over the now combined totals of 126 for all games today. I get that the GS fluctuates based on how the lines move but I have never seen 7 points added. As I said, the most I've seen is 5 points.

Now here's my puzzle. The totals went up 3 points but the add on went up 7. It makes it tempting to take the under 133 and try to middle but are the books adding a ton more points because they think scoring will be that much higher today? If so trying to middle would be a mistake and cost me a great line on GS because if they score 135 runs today I would have turned a win of +500 into a loss of -50 and be really pissed at myself. Thoughts? GL

I wonder if the scuffing the ball scandal warning is in affect. You know that ole spin rate has increased therefore those Launch Angle hitters have struggled. We could start seeing a run increase after 6 unexplainable no hitters already!

 

[Wiretowire]

That's an interesting point Wise. I have been reading a lot about the fact that even TV announcers are seeing, and commenting, how the balls are being blatantly doctored by the pitchers. Maybe the MLB "in" crowd knows they have sent warnings to the teams that umps are going to start looking and acting more if they suspect anything and warning the teams to stop that shit. Taking balls and hats and such out of play to be sent to the league office. They just saw a hat taken from a pitcher recently. That is info the books could easily obtain and realize that more runs are going to be scored. So they are padding totals more than usual.

The GS has been very low this year. In the past you would never see a 15 game schedule with a GS under 138 or so. There have been multiple 120's this year and even a lot of those have come in under. I think you may be onto something and it will be interesting to see if average runs scored goes up. In the meantime, thanks so much for your feedback. I am going to just stay at over 127 without a hedge and see if it comes in. Just wish I had picked this one to bet 1,000 on instead of just 500. GL

 

[inZane]

Love this thread and your insight Wire.

I remember Blood told me that you knew a lot about the game, and he was right...

 

[Wiretowire]

Thank you for the kind words Inzane. I appreciate it. GL