Wiretowire
Pretty much a regular
YTD +1175
1-1 last
An observation. You can skip it if you like.......
I taped that Pitt game last night so I wouldn't miss any of Skenes pitching. I jump around a lot between games, but I went back and watched the tape to get a good feel for this kid. He pitched a good game and the Pirates won. He is already a very good pitcher, and he could be great in a year or two. My bet was that he would record 9 strikeouts or more and it was a good bet based on his stats and the Cinn strikeout rate per game. I would bet this kid to win a game again in a microsecond, but I wouldn't bet him to strikeout more than 7 batters in a game. In other words, don't go over his strikeouts of more than 6 1/2 and here's why I say that.
To his credit, he never shook off a sign from the catcher. Never. And that's rare even for a young pitcher. But the catcher called for a ton of fastballs. Almost all fastballs in fact. They did change location (in out up and down), but it was almost all fastballs. This is obviously the game plan between the pitcher, catcher and the coach, probably the pitching coach, as he does have a 100 mph fastball sometimes going to 101. It's a good plan and it will result in many wins for the young man, but most fans hear the announcers breathlessly talking about 100 mph pitches. The truth is that major leaguers and even minor leaguers can hit 100 mph pitches and usually do.
But the one thing that stood out to me was contrary to what happens in every game. No hitter was swinging wildly at pitches out of the strike zone. Hitters guess and they swing at shit the catcher has to dive for to catch but not last night. Not even once. Another thing to interject that fans may not be aware of is teams send out scouts to chart the upcoming opposing pitcher. They pretty much know who they will face because of the rotation, and they do this in advance of facing this or that pitcher and this is especially true if the pitcher is young and new to the majors. Cinn, as well as every other club scouted Skenes and knew their game plan was to keep pounding the strike zone with fastballs. Not one batter swung wildly last night guessing because they didn't have to guess. They all sat on his fastball because that was what they were going to see, and they were right. Despite that and to the young man's credit he still pitched very well, and the Pirates still won. Granted he did get a lot of borderline strike calls from that particular ump, but he did pitch well despite them sitting on his heater.
Now as he develops in the next few years, he will be able to incorporate more off speed and he could well become unhittable but that won't be this year because they are calling for 90% fastballs and whether he has the off speed or not right now the coaches don't think so yet and more importantly to them why call for those pitches when his fastball is winning games. But the fact they aren't calling for anything but fastballs means although he will have a great season and win lots of games the hitters are going to put the ball in play and not strikeout enough to win that prop bet over 7 strikeouts except occasionally. But as I have said previously, I would back this kid to win the game for the Pirates every time he takes the mound.
Sorry about the long-winded observation but that is what goes through the mind of old retired catchers when they watch a game.
Just one today but Balt ML +120 is a good bet.
LA ML -90/+50
GL
1-1 last
An observation. You can skip it if you like.......
I taped that Pitt game last night so I wouldn't miss any of Skenes pitching. I jump around a lot between games, but I went back and watched the tape to get a good feel for this kid. He pitched a good game and the Pirates won. He is already a very good pitcher, and he could be great in a year or two. My bet was that he would record 9 strikeouts or more and it was a good bet based on his stats and the Cinn strikeout rate per game. I would bet this kid to win a game again in a microsecond, but I wouldn't bet him to strikeout more than 7 batters in a game. In other words, don't go over his strikeouts of more than 6 1/2 and here's why I say that.
To his credit, he never shook off a sign from the catcher. Never. And that's rare even for a young pitcher. But the catcher called for a ton of fastballs. Almost all fastballs in fact. They did change location (in out up and down), but it was almost all fastballs. This is obviously the game plan between the pitcher, catcher and the coach, probably the pitching coach, as he does have a 100 mph fastball sometimes going to 101. It's a good plan and it will result in many wins for the young man, but most fans hear the announcers breathlessly talking about 100 mph pitches. The truth is that major leaguers and even minor leaguers can hit 100 mph pitches and usually do.
But the one thing that stood out to me was contrary to what happens in every game. No hitter was swinging wildly at pitches out of the strike zone. Hitters guess and they swing at shit the catcher has to dive for to catch but not last night. Not even once. Another thing to interject that fans may not be aware of is teams send out scouts to chart the upcoming opposing pitcher. They pretty much know who they will face because of the rotation, and they do this in advance of facing this or that pitcher and this is especially true if the pitcher is young and new to the majors. Cinn, as well as every other club scouted Skenes and knew their game plan was to keep pounding the strike zone with fastballs. Not one batter swung wildly last night guessing because they didn't have to guess. They all sat on his fastball because that was what they were going to see, and they were right. Despite that and to the young man's credit he still pitched very well, and the Pirates still won. Granted he did get a lot of borderline strike calls from that particular ump, but he did pitch well despite them sitting on his heater.
Now as he develops in the next few years, he will be able to incorporate more off speed and he could well become unhittable but that won't be this year because they are calling for 90% fastballs and whether he has the off speed or not right now the coaches don't think so yet and more importantly to them why call for those pitches when his fastball is winning games. But the fact they aren't calling for anything but fastballs means although he will have a great season and win lots of games the hitters are going to put the ball in play and not strikeout enough to win that prop bet over 7 strikeouts except occasionally. But as I have said previously, I would back this kid to win the game for the Pirates every time he takes the mound.
Sorry about the long-winded observation but that is what goes through the mind of old retired catchers when they watch a game.
Just one today but Balt ML +120 is a good bet.
LA ML -90/+50
GL
