GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
SEASON: 155-137, +27.3689 Units
YESTERDAY: 4-2, +2.55 Units
COLORADO +113 (1.75 UNITS)
I definitely feel there is a misconception in starting pitchers today:
Last 3 starts:
Pitcher A: 5,14 ERA and 1.214 WHIP
Pitcher B: 5.40 ERA and 1.418 WHIP
Bullpen:
Team A: 2.96 ERA, 3.64 road ERA and 3 blown saves
Team B: 4.13 ERA, 5.54 ERA at home and 8 blown saves.
Average vs. Handed Pitching:
Team A: .265 against right handers (14-9 W/L)
Team B: .219 against left handers (4-7 W/L)
Records:
Team A: 10-9 after a loss and 20-18 overall
Team B: 5-10 after a win and 16-22 overall
"A" is obviously Colorado and "B", the Cubs. Jeff Francis' metrics are better than his stats indicate and in his last start, he was taken out after 4 innings after a lengthy rain delay and seemed to have decent stuff against the Yankees. He has struggled more on the road but his history is somewhat neutral between home/road splits. Most importantly, in his L3 starts, he has a 30:16 GB:FB ratio. Villanueva came out of the gates like a house on fire but has cooled off and regressed and seems to be a bit overvalued. In Villanueva's first 4 starts, he had a 44:32 GB:FB ratio. In his last 3 starts, it has reversed to 20:34; not a good sign. He has also walked 8 in his last 3 starts over 18 1/3 IP. Tulowitzki and Torreabla have homered a collective 4 times in 18 at bats against Villanueva.
The Cubs have scored just 29 runs in 11 games where they faced a lefty starter. In 6 of those 11 games, they managed 2 runs or less and in 10 of those games, they scored 4 runs or less.
If we were to segment this game, I'd say the pitching is somewhat neutral especially due to the GB:FB ratios when you take into account that the wind is expected to be blowing out tonight. I give hitting and bullpen edges to the Rox.
TORONTO -134 (1.5 UNITS)
How's this for splits?
Barry Zito:
Home: 3-0, 0.55 ERA, 33 IP, 25 hits and 2 runs
Road: 0-1, 14.21 ERA, 6 1/3 IP, 15 hits and 5 runs
Day: 3-0, 0.32 ERA
Night: 0-1, 8.74 ERA
Over the L3 years, Zito's ERA is 1.5 runs higher on the road. Encarnacion and DeRosa have a collective 5 HRs in 35 at-bats against Zito. As bad as the publicity Dickey has received this season, 4 of his L6 starts were quality starts and Giant hitters have shown no real success against him in 51 at-bats.
MILWAUKEE -115 (1.25 UNITS) - Jeff Locke has completely outperformed his peripheral numbers this season and seems to be getting the job done with smoke and mirrors. His command is off, he's walked 19 batters in 39+ innings and he has struggled at home. His .214 BABIP is unsustainable. At home, he has a 4.91 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Meanwhile, Kyle Lohse has been outstanding on the road, with a 2.37 ERA and 0.895 WHIP. The Brewers are getting slightly healthier now and are hitting .277 vs. lefties this season. Their bullpen has been solid on the road with a 3.08 ERA and minimizes the Bucs bullpen advantage. The Brewers have owned the Pirates the L3 season with a 26-8 record including 10-3 at Pittsburgh.
DETROIT -1.5 RUNS (-135) (1.25 UNITS) - As much as I find Harrell interesting, 10 days ago he allowed 10 hits and 8 runs to these Tigers in 4 1/3 innings at home. Tough to think he will dominate them today. Tigers are averaging 11.4 hits and 6.8 runs per game their L10. They are hitting .310 at home this season and averaging 6.3 runs per game. Fister pitched allowed just 2 earned runs in 6 innings at Houston 11 days ago. Houston's best hitter, Altuve, is now out the next 3-7 days. Astros lineup tonight includes Grossman, Elmore, Paredes and Gonzalez. Sounds more like a law firm. The Tigers have covered the run line in 18 of their 21 wins this season. The Astros have covered the runline in just 7 of their 29 losses this season.
BALTIMORE -138 (1.25 UNITS) - The word potential has often been attached to Chris Tillman's name and if the last 4 starts have been any indication, he may be approaching it. In his L4 starts, he has tossed 26 2/3 innings and allowed just 6 earned runs (2.03 ERA) and the O's have won all 4 starts. The O's are 5-0 on Tuesdays this season and 34-18 the L3 years and are 5-0 after days off this season and 30-16 the L3 years. They are 17-10 vs. right handers and their bullpen is outstanding at home with a 2.15 ERA. While I like Andrew Cashner's stuff, he is unproven on the road and he has allowed 7 walks in his L2 starts over 11 1/3 IP.
UNDER SEA/NYY 6.5 RUNS (EVEN) (0.75 UNITS)
UNDER YANKEES TEAM TOTAL 3.5 RUNS (-125) (0.75 UNITS)
BOSTON +127 (1.25 UNITS)
WHITE SOX -107 (1.25 UNITS)
UNDER WASHINGTON TEAM TOTAL 3 RUNS (-150) (1 UNIT)
Still contemplating plays in NYM/Stl and Cle/Philly
YESTERDAY: 4-2, +2.55 Units
COLORADO +113 (1.75 UNITS)
I definitely feel there is a misconception in starting pitchers today:
Last 3 starts:
Pitcher A: 5,14 ERA and 1.214 WHIP
Pitcher B: 5.40 ERA and 1.418 WHIP
Bullpen:
Team A: 2.96 ERA, 3.64 road ERA and 3 blown saves
Team B: 4.13 ERA, 5.54 ERA at home and 8 blown saves.
Average vs. Handed Pitching:
Team A: .265 against right handers (14-9 W/L)
Team B: .219 against left handers (4-7 W/L)
Records:
Team A: 10-9 after a loss and 20-18 overall
Team B: 5-10 after a win and 16-22 overall
"A" is obviously Colorado and "B", the Cubs. Jeff Francis' metrics are better than his stats indicate and in his last start, he was taken out after 4 innings after a lengthy rain delay and seemed to have decent stuff against the Yankees. He has struggled more on the road but his history is somewhat neutral between home/road splits. Most importantly, in his L3 starts, he has a 30:16 GB:FB ratio. Villanueva came out of the gates like a house on fire but has cooled off and regressed and seems to be a bit overvalued. In Villanueva's first 4 starts, he had a 44:32 GB:FB ratio. In his last 3 starts, it has reversed to 20:34; not a good sign. He has also walked 8 in his last 3 starts over 18 1/3 IP. Tulowitzki and Torreabla have homered a collective 4 times in 18 at bats against Villanueva.
The Cubs have scored just 29 runs in 11 games where they faced a lefty starter. In 6 of those 11 games, they managed 2 runs or less and in 10 of those games, they scored 4 runs or less.
If we were to segment this game, I'd say the pitching is somewhat neutral especially due to the GB:FB ratios when you take into account that the wind is expected to be blowing out tonight. I give hitting and bullpen edges to the Rox.
TORONTO -134 (1.5 UNITS)
How's this for splits?
Barry Zito:
Home: 3-0, 0.55 ERA, 33 IP, 25 hits and 2 runs
Road: 0-1, 14.21 ERA, 6 1/3 IP, 15 hits and 5 runs
Day: 3-0, 0.32 ERA
Night: 0-1, 8.74 ERA
Over the L3 years, Zito's ERA is 1.5 runs higher on the road. Encarnacion and DeRosa have a collective 5 HRs in 35 at-bats against Zito. As bad as the publicity Dickey has received this season, 4 of his L6 starts were quality starts and Giant hitters have shown no real success against him in 51 at-bats.
MILWAUKEE -115 (1.25 UNITS) - Jeff Locke has completely outperformed his peripheral numbers this season and seems to be getting the job done with smoke and mirrors. His command is off, he's walked 19 batters in 39+ innings and he has struggled at home. His .214 BABIP is unsustainable. At home, he has a 4.91 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Meanwhile, Kyle Lohse has been outstanding on the road, with a 2.37 ERA and 0.895 WHIP. The Brewers are getting slightly healthier now and are hitting .277 vs. lefties this season. Their bullpen has been solid on the road with a 3.08 ERA and minimizes the Bucs bullpen advantage. The Brewers have owned the Pirates the L3 season with a 26-8 record including 10-3 at Pittsburgh.
DETROIT -1.5 RUNS (-135) (1.25 UNITS) - As much as I find Harrell interesting, 10 days ago he allowed 10 hits and 8 runs to these Tigers in 4 1/3 innings at home. Tough to think he will dominate them today. Tigers are averaging 11.4 hits and 6.8 runs per game their L10. They are hitting .310 at home this season and averaging 6.3 runs per game. Fister pitched allowed just 2 earned runs in 6 innings at Houston 11 days ago. Houston's best hitter, Altuve, is now out the next 3-7 days. Astros lineup tonight includes Grossman, Elmore, Paredes and Gonzalez. Sounds more like a law firm. The Tigers have covered the run line in 18 of their 21 wins this season. The Astros have covered the runline in just 7 of their 29 losses this season.
BALTIMORE -138 (1.25 UNITS) - The word potential has often been attached to Chris Tillman's name and if the last 4 starts have been any indication, he may be approaching it. In his L4 starts, he has tossed 26 2/3 innings and allowed just 6 earned runs (2.03 ERA) and the O's have won all 4 starts. The O's are 5-0 on Tuesdays this season and 34-18 the L3 years and are 5-0 after days off this season and 30-16 the L3 years. They are 17-10 vs. right handers and their bullpen is outstanding at home with a 2.15 ERA. While I like Andrew Cashner's stuff, he is unproven on the road and he has allowed 7 walks in his L2 starts over 11 1/3 IP.
UNDER SEA/NYY 6.5 RUNS (EVEN) (0.75 UNITS)
UNDER YANKEES TEAM TOTAL 3.5 RUNS (-125) (0.75 UNITS)
BOSTON +127 (1.25 UNITS)
WHITE SOX -107 (1.25 UNITS)
UNDER WASHINGTON TEAM TOTAL 3 RUNS (-150) (1 UNIT)
Still contemplating plays in NYM/Stl and Cle/Philly
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