MLB Tuesday 10/6 Wild card

[Wiretowire]

Over 7 -110

Both starters can be had but Keuchel has been tough on the Yankees this year and tough in general of late. But both teams are scoring at will and both bullpens have very bad era's. 3.57 and 4.05 is very bad for bullpens because you have to remember that these era's don't include inherited runners. Those era's are what the pen pitchers put on base and then to score all by themselves. People forget that and when they see a 3+ era they think it's good. Well it actually stinks something awful. This one sails over the 7 and there is no need to buy it lower. 3-3 and you don't lose but I think one team goes off to cover this.

As for a side you pick one. I guess I lean toward Houston because they have the better starter but the pens suck so who knows? I also have a tough time betting against the Yankees at home in a one game playoff where anything can happen. GL

 

[gsro]

agree

 

[wiseplayer]

Keuchel is on short rest also I believe. GL

 

[mrob]

BOL wire

 

[kdog]

Over 7 -110

Both starters can be had but Keuchel has been tough on the Yankees this year and tough in general of late. But both teams are scoring at will and both bullpens have very bad era's. 3.57 and 4.05 is very bad for bullpens because you have to remember that these era's don't include inherited runners. Those era's are what the pen pitchers put on base and then to score all by themselves. People forget that and when they see a 3+ era they think it's good. Well it actually stinks something awful. This one sails over the 7 and there is no need to buy it lower. 3-3 and you don't lose but I think one team goes off to cover this.

As for a side you pick one. I guess I lean toward Houston because they have the better starter but the pens suck so who knows? I also have a tough time betting against the Yankees at home in a one game playoff where anything can happen. GL

Fangraphs has these two pens ranked 2nd & 3rd by WAR for the season(w ERA's of 3.27 & 3.70) so sucked is kinda strong. Overachieved maybe a better word for Houston as a few of those guys really surprised me all season. Yankees are vulnerable if you can get them before the 8th but Betances/Miller don't give up much from there on. If you like over the key really is one or the other starter has to get whacked around fairly early.

 

[Play2win]

BOL in the playoffs Wire.

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks GSRO. GL

That should help the over Wise. Thanks. GL

Thanks Mrob. GL

Thanks Play. GL

Kdog, I guess my point is that it doesn't matter whether they are even ranked 1st and 2nd. When it comes to era bullpens shouldn't be that high. The fact that they are ranked that high means every bullpen sucks and these two just suck kinda less than the others. Good info thanks. GL

 

[kdog]

And good luck to you too W2w but my actual point is that you are evaluating bullpens incorrectly for postseason baseball. The only times you are going to see the not so good pen guys are when a game gets past the 10th inning or when the starter is rocked early (in which case your over would look pretty good). Most games though you are only going to see the 7,8,9 inning or 8,9 inning guys who make their living by not giving up runs in high leverage situations.

 

[Metallica]

GL tonight :cheers3:

 

[bloodhound]

Good to see U in here again old man. There is no one better at post season picks than the Wire imo. The playoffs always seem to get ur blood flowing and I always look forward to ur thoughts...and rants
On this bull pen situation, The Yanks' 80.4 save percentage is second only to the Cards, and they are stranding 72.3 percent of inherited runners, which ranks seventh in the Majors. No club can match the righty-lefty tandem of Betances (1.40 ERA) and Miller (34 saves, 2.04 ERA). But despite those two overpowering work and Wilsons 26 holds, Yanks are still sixth in the AL in bullpen ERA (3.55). The Yankees lead all bullpens with 562 strikeouts, but they have a 4.04 ERA since Aug. 1
Houston's 3.25 bullpen ERA ranks seventh in the majors, and its runners-stranded rate (75.8) is fourth. The Astros' fortified their bullpen in the offseason with veterans Gregerson and Neshek and it has paid off in the club's wins. But the unit's ERA has swollen to 4.42 since Aug. 1, and 6.63 in September -- the worst in baseball this month.
I'm hoping Dallas gets at least eight in.Tanaka prob gets 6 imo and the Yanks pen comes into play a bit more than the Stros
BOL my friend

 

[Timh]

BOL Wire.

 

[cashflowmatters]

Great to see you back, good luck in the post season & always

 

[Check_raise]

Good to see you!

i could see the Yankees going to the pen early if they get down a few runs. One game playoffs usually cause the panic button to be readily available when the starter gets in trouble..that should help your over.

GL!!