MLB Tuesday 10/4

[Wiretowire]

YTD +36.1

First off, a disclaimer. I may not be posting any plays on Cleveland or Cubs in the playoffs. I have sizable pennant and world series bets on both placed back in June. This makes me biased in single game situations and there is no one faster on this earth to lose money than biased people. Worse yet, as I have always said, never listen to a fans pick if it is on his/her favorite team. They can't be impartial because they want that team to win so they will look for those good reasons. And if they are pissed off at them (see browns fans) they will not be objective when they bet against them.

Frankly, I have never understood why you would ever bet on your favorite team. First, because you know you aren't impartial so you are betting on false reads. Second, if they win you feel great so why risk money? Third, if they lose you feel like shit AND now you have to pay a bookie money? Makes no sense. So the lesson for today children is never bet on or against your favorite team.

This is why I have no favorite teams and haven't for years. But........ because I want Cleveland and the Cubs to win my judgment will be no better than avid Cleveland/Cubs fans. So if I can't help myself and I do post picks on those two teams ignore them or fade my picks because they will not be objective picks.

Baltimore +130 (5 units)

Tillman is 4-0 against the Jays this year. Stroman is 1-3 against the Orioles. Tillman has pitched very solidly recently and I don't know what to make of Stroman's last where he gave up 4 runs. Normally when I see that I take the over but again Tillman has pitched solidly.

In any event, go slow because these one game playoffs are goofy. If either starter allows 3 or 4 runs he may be gone in the very early innings and capping starters becomes a non issue. Lose and you go home so they will throw anyone out there to survive even if it is a starter that pitched Sunday.

Under 8 1/2 - Not betting this so it is not bolded but I will give an opinion (if you are interested) in this total. Under is 12-7 this year between these two. I see two decent pitchers and they usually play these games pretty close to the vest early so under could eat a few of the early innings. But ....... these one game playoff games are goofy (where have I heard that before?) so if one starter does have a bad day and the other team jumps out early anything can happen including scoring 13 runs in this one. That is why I am not betting it but the lean is under 8 1/2. GL

 

[Wiretowire]

One more note. If you like any other team in the playoffs you better hope Toronto loses tonight. In my opinion they have the best starting pitching staff in baseball. I'm not talking stats, but by that I mean they have 4 or 5 guys that you know could win games. That's a shitload of starters that can win games for you in playoff situations. That makes them very dangerous.

Now, I happen to think their starter today can be had under the present circumstances against the team he is playing but overall they have very solid pitching. And please don't come at me with team era's or teams that have 3 world beater starters that the Jays can't touch. My point is Toronto has, in my opinion, the most (total number of) starters that can give you a solid start and beat you.

So if you want your team to win the world championship you better root that the Jays don't go far. GL

P.S. Unless of course you want the Jays to win it all and in that case you are probably Canadian and hockey means more to you than baseball so let my Indians/Cubs win this one. :rofl:

 

[Metallica]

GL in the Postseason Bro.

 

[Underdogchance]

One more note. If you like any other team in the playoffs you better hope Toronto loses tonight. In my opinion they have the best starting pitching staff in baseball. I'm not talking stats, but by that I mean they have 4 or 5 guys that you know could win games. That's a shitload of starters that can win games for you in playoff situations. That makes them very dangerous.

And they will use all of them if they will need them :glove:

Good Luck with your play. I am on with Blue Jays. :cheers3:

 

[Timh]

I would like to bet the Orioles here, but Tillman doesn't seem right to me over L5, with diminished velocity and very poor K/BB 14/13 ratio. The problem for the Orioles is bridging the gap if Tillman is an early yank. O's have been great at back end 7-9in, but their middle guys are ? and we could see Worley or someone like that involved. Both of these teams have hit the respective pitchers very well and I would lean over here but then you look at Tor at home (under) and Orioles second half (under) and it's tough to go over. I may be on the sidelines in this one. GL.

 

[KJ]

BOL tonight wire, on em myself

 

[twins fan23]

GL Wire, have a great postseason. On the O's as well.

 

[cashflowmatters]

I see the game exactly as you do W2W. Tillman has been very sharp vs Tor in every start this year... Stroman not so much ves Balt. I would also lean under but feel one these teams smacks the other starter or both today... could seeing it going over easily even though I lean under.