Wiretowire
Pretty much a regular
Going to write this series up then makes the picks on Tuesday.
First of all a reminder, if you are a fan of either of these teams then you will certainly get angry with at least one thing I have to say if not more. Although you are free to say I am full of shit remember that your opinion is biased because you are a fan. I may just say "ok" and laugh at you so be ready for that anger as well. Please also remember that I bet both these teams to win their pennants and the world series so although I would like Cleveland to win it all (because they were 12/1 as opposed to 4/1 for the Cubs) I will get paid either way.
Coaching:
Joe Madden is a very good coach. I do question some of his bullpen moves but I also question Francona on the same thing. Some will say Madden can't win the big one but he still is a very good coach. But Madden has only been to the World Series once and he lost 4 games to 1. Francona on the other hand has won the World series twice. Francona is willing to bunt runners over in an attempt to manufacture runs and Madden seems to just sip his coffee and let the game play itself out. I absolutely HATE the fact that Francona has designated Cody Allen as the closer and uses the better closer Miller for setup in the 7th and 8th innings. You would have thought he would learn when Miller was given the ALCS MVP award but Francona can be stubborn which is not a good trait in a manager. Allen will be beaten in the 9th in least one game and if you are Cleveland you really can't afford to blow a game against these Cubs. I think Francona is more active as a coach making more moves but I am going to call coaching even in this one.
Starting pitching:
This is really a no brainer but mostly because of injuries. Cubs will throw Lester, Arrieta, Lackey, and Hendricks. Lester is the best pitcher of all the starters for both teams. Arrieta puts too many base runners on. Lackey and Hendricks can be had. Cleveland will throw Kluber, Tomlin, and who the fuck knows. Kluber is the second best pitcher on both teams after Lester. Tomlin has pitched well of late but can be had. I would guess that they will throw Bauer who can also be had if he wasn't injured which he is. They might even throw that kid Merrick(?) who might give them innings in another bullpen game. Salazar is also a possibility to go in the pen to maybe help this kid or any starter that gets in trouble early. He is very good when he healthy but he is not healthy.
When you have 4 solid starters to throw out there and the other guy has a patchwork of decent but injured pitchers the advantage goes big to Cubs.
Closer:
Another no brainer. Allen not only can be had he will be at least once. Chapman on the other hand is probably the best closer in baseball. If there is a ***** in his armor it is because he throws almost all fastballs and although over 100 mph major leaguers can hit fastballs if they are sitting on them regardless of speed. It should also be mentioned that if Cleveland can get a 2 or 3 run lead into the 7th Miller will shut down the 7th and 8th for the Cubs. This is a big factor but if the lead is only 1 Allen can give up the game in the 9th. Decided advantage to the Cubs.
Defense:
I'm not going to go into this a great deal but although there are very good defensive players on the Cubs, Cleveland is better overall defensively. Cleveland.
Hitting:
There are no two players more dangerous in this series or better at the plate than Bryant and Rizzo of the Cubs. I would pitch around them regardless of the situation. And if Fowler does his job as leadoff to get on base the Cubs will score lots of runs. But if Fowler does what he has been doing in the playoffs which is trying to hit HR's then he will be a non factor. Overall though Zobrist, Hayward, and Baez will also contribute. Cleveland has a lineup of consistent hitters. I wouldn't call them great hitters but each can get on base, move runners, or even bunt when the situation calls for it. Pesky is a word that comes to mind for the Tribe. I also value the fact that Francona will bunt to move runners more. Santana, Kipnis, Lindor, Napoli, Ramirez, Chisenhall, and Davis may not present the danger of the Cubs big two but all are tough outs.
I would have called hitting an overall advantage for Cleveland but because the Cubs can use a DH instead of the pitcher and they have to face less dominant pitching from Cleveland because of injuries I can't give Cleveland the advantage in hitting. Even
Intangibles:
The Cubs get a DH in games played in Cleveland and that should help them. On the flip side the Tribe loses their DH in games played in Chicago. That will take a big bat out of their lineup. Last intangible is the home field for Cleveland. Last at bats are HUGE. The fans are inconsequential for both sides but batting last is enormous. I say that often but I never have explained it. I don't explain it because a lot of people get confused when I do but here goes.
Let's say it is the top of the 8th inning. You are the home team. You get your opponent out and that means you get the bottom of the 8th and the bottom of the 9th while your opponent only gets the top of the 9th to score. This now gives you a hitting advantage because you have 6 outs to his 3 to score. This continues even if the game goes into extra innings. Now you say but it's the same for the visitor as well. Not really. Every time you get the home team out, no matter what inning, they will always have the exact same number of at bats and outs that you do. The only problem with this home field advantage is the Cubs only have to win one of the first 2 games to turn the last at bats to their favor and I don't think Cleveland will win both of the first two games.
Overall advantage: Cubs
I will post the picks if any for Tuesday's game after the lines come out. Not sure why Madden is waiting to call Lester his game one starter but he is. GL
First of all a reminder, if you are a fan of either of these teams then you will certainly get angry with at least one thing I have to say if not more. Although you are free to say I am full of shit remember that your opinion is biased because you are a fan. I may just say "ok" and laugh at you so be ready for that anger as well. Please also remember that I bet both these teams to win their pennants and the world series so although I would like Cleveland to win it all (because they were 12/1 as opposed to 4/1 for the Cubs) I will get paid either way.
Coaching:
Joe Madden is a very good coach. I do question some of his bullpen moves but I also question Francona on the same thing. Some will say Madden can't win the big one but he still is a very good coach. But Madden has only been to the World Series once and he lost 4 games to 1. Francona on the other hand has won the World series twice. Francona is willing to bunt runners over in an attempt to manufacture runs and Madden seems to just sip his coffee and let the game play itself out. I absolutely HATE the fact that Francona has designated Cody Allen as the closer and uses the better closer Miller for setup in the 7th and 8th innings. You would have thought he would learn when Miller was given the ALCS MVP award but Francona can be stubborn which is not a good trait in a manager. Allen will be beaten in the 9th in least one game and if you are Cleveland you really can't afford to blow a game against these Cubs. I think Francona is more active as a coach making more moves but I am going to call coaching even in this one.
Starting pitching:
This is really a no brainer but mostly because of injuries. Cubs will throw Lester, Arrieta, Lackey, and Hendricks. Lester is the best pitcher of all the starters for both teams. Arrieta puts too many base runners on. Lackey and Hendricks can be had. Cleveland will throw Kluber, Tomlin, and who the fuck knows. Kluber is the second best pitcher on both teams after Lester. Tomlin has pitched well of late but can be had. I would guess that they will throw Bauer who can also be had if he wasn't injured which he is. They might even throw that kid Merrick(?) who might give them innings in another bullpen game. Salazar is also a possibility to go in the pen to maybe help this kid or any starter that gets in trouble early. He is very good when he healthy but he is not healthy.
When you have 4 solid starters to throw out there and the other guy has a patchwork of decent but injured pitchers the advantage goes big to Cubs.
Closer:
Another no brainer. Allen not only can be had he will be at least once. Chapman on the other hand is probably the best closer in baseball. If there is a ***** in his armor it is because he throws almost all fastballs and although over 100 mph major leaguers can hit fastballs if they are sitting on them regardless of speed. It should also be mentioned that if Cleveland can get a 2 or 3 run lead into the 7th Miller will shut down the 7th and 8th for the Cubs. This is a big factor but if the lead is only 1 Allen can give up the game in the 9th. Decided advantage to the Cubs.
Defense:
I'm not going to go into this a great deal but although there are very good defensive players on the Cubs, Cleveland is better overall defensively. Cleveland.
Hitting:
There are no two players more dangerous in this series or better at the plate than Bryant and Rizzo of the Cubs. I would pitch around them regardless of the situation. And if Fowler does his job as leadoff to get on base the Cubs will score lots of runs. But if Fowler does what he has been doing in the playoffs which is trying to hit HR's then he will be a non factor. Overall though Zobrist, Hayward, and Baez will also contribute. Cleveland has a lineup of consistent hitters. I wouldn't call them great hitters but each can get on base, move runners, or even bunt when the situation calls for it. Pesky is a word that comes to mind for the Tribe. I also value the fact that Francona will bunt to move runners more. Santana, Kipnis, Lindor, Napoli, Ramirez, Chisenhall, and Davis may not present the danger of the Cubs big two but all are tough outs.
I would have called hitting an overall advantage for Cleveland but because the Cubs can use a DH instead of the pitcher and they have to face less dominant pitching from Cleveland because of injuries I can't give Cleveland the advantage in hitting. Even
Intangibles:
The Cubs get a DH in games played in Cleveland and that should help them. On the flip side the Tribe loses their DH in games played in Chicago. That will take a big bat out of their lineup. Last intangible is the home field for Cleveland. Last at bats are HUGE. The fans are inconsequential for both sides but batting last is enormous. I say that often but I never have explained it. I don't explain it because a lot of people get confused when I do but here goes.
Let's say it is the top of the 8th inning. You are the home team. You get your opponent out and that means you get the bottom of the 8th and the bottom of the 9th while your opponent only gets the top of the 9th to score. This now gives you a hitting advantage because you have 6 outs to his 3 to score. This continues even if the game goes into extra innings. Now you say but it's the same for the visitor as well. Not really. Every time you get the home team out, no matter what inning, they will always have the exact same number of at bats and outs that you do. The only problem with this home field advantage is the Cubs only have to win one of the first 2 games to turn the last at bats to their favor and I don't think Cleveland will win both of the first two games.
Overall advantage: Cubs
I will post the picks if any for Tuesday's game after the lines come out. Not sure why Madden is waiting to call Lester his game one starter but he is. GL
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