Satyr
Paster of Muppets
MLB 2007: 72 W-6V-57 L +89.02 units
4-0 yesterday, one of the best days of the season. Let's try to keep the streak going.
Some thoughts first:
Blue Jays - White Sox
Dear Blue Jay backer,
You are paying for the name of Roy Halladay. Meaning you are being ripped before the game even started.
The thing is, no one can come close to determininig which Halladay shows up. A very good chance is, and my guess would be, a sub par one, even more due to the fact he actually returned before scheduled date. He might be quite rusty at this point.
Now why. Halladay went 4-0, 2.28 ERA in April, the Jays were 5-1 behind him on the mound. Perfect picture.
Then injury troubles started, and as he returned, these are the numbers:
May 5th @Texas (lost 11-4)(5.1 IP, 12 hits, 9 ERs, 99 pitches in only 5.1 innings of work)
May 10thv Boston (lost 8-0)(5 IP, 11 hits, 7 ERs, 87 pitches)
A combined ERA of 13.94 (16 ERs in 10.1 IP)
Easily his worst stint in YEARS. PLUS:
Only 4 runs of support in two matches by the team.
He's fresh off the DL. You can't count on a pitcher to step up. And normally, had the White Sox continued their hot hitting streak and actually won games they go up 6-0 in, I would make this a 10 unit bet(maximum play).
But not now. I just can't. The White Sox have been a moneymaker for me throughout the years, but this year they can't seem to find consistency, that's why they're constantly floating around .500 (and few games above) instead of chasing their fellow Sox' record.
They're losing games they should win, and losing tied games easily. However, the price here is faltered. Buehrle (2-1, 3.86 ERA) has been quite a strange pitcher this year. He's been losing games he should've dominated (against KC he allowed 4 ERs and 7 hits in 6 innings of work, 8 hits, 4 ERs against TB (at home), and inspired the team to win against the teams like LAA, Cleveland or Oakland.
The fact remains however, the Sox are 7-2 behind him this year, the only losses coming against the Cubs and the Angels. He is 1-0, 4.05 ERA on the road this year.
A few downsides to the bet:
>Wells is hitting .550 against him in 20 at bats (11-for-20)
>Troy Glaus is 6-for-15 (.400) against Buehrle
>Reed Johnson is hitting .304 (7-for-22) off him
(overall 30-for-100)
The Jays have however, waken up in the last few weeks, a small uptrend is notable. They should be inspired to score for their ace after letting him down in consecutive games (and vice versa, as you like it).
All in all, the White Sox have lost 4 straight and quite frankly, with a big questionmark of how Halladay adapts to the game straight off the DL, I would rate this one in small favor of the Jays. So the value is on the Pale Sox if you ask me. Still not sure if I take them.
My guess is, Toronto should be backable tomorrow, when they send out a really hot pitcher in AJ Burnett, against Vasquez. At a better price.
Angels RL (2.02 @ Pinnacle) 8 units
This team is built to win in series. And they're doing it. Baltimore Orioles, on the other hand, are already showing signs of MAJOR slowing down following their impressive hitting streak. Let me tell you one thing: Gil Meche was very close to shutting them down last night and had KC reacted better with men in scoring position, they would've won, and we would all talk about the O's team that lost to Kansas.
Now we're talking about an O's team that swept KC on the ROAD, and dominated all 3 games. They actually could've lost easily last night, but they took their chances in late innings and sealed the W.
Travelling to the Angel stadium facing the Halos lineup will be a different story. Note their last night's win came behind Bedard, one of their best starters. Tonight they'll send out Brian Burres (2-2, 3.27 ERA), who has been solid so far. He's had a quality start against Oakland 6.0 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, and at first glance he hasn't let in more than 2 runs at all this year, except once against Cleveland. However, he didn't actually pitch long innings. Usually he was relieved at first sign of trouble. So his numbers are deceiving. Also, he gave quite a lot of hits even in games he went 5 innings (7 hits against Bosto n and Toronto.
Ok. It could happen. But don't expect any mercy from the Angels. Not only are they hitting guys like this (not going long innings, prone to giving up a lot of hits, etc) on a regular basis, but they've been murdering lefties as well (.278 as a team in 2007, .291 in last 10 games).
The Angels will send out Kelvim Escobar (6-2, 2.64 ERA) who has been a stud in the true meaning of the word this year. He's been a big game player, and the only start he collapsed in was the one in Detroit at Comerica.
Escobar is 4-1, 1.76 ERA at home this year, and 12-4 with nine saves and a 3.76 ERA in 33 career appearances, including 17 starts, against the Orioles. Tejada is hitting only .138 off him, Roberts .188, Mora .222. And these guys have been the core element of the team against KC and Oakland during the 5 game winning streak.
Coming off a hard fought battle last night, traveling to California, facing a pitcher they can't figure out, handing the Halos a leftie they can feast off...
The Angels are 19-7 at home this year and this is a perfect spot for the suddenly streaking Orioles to come back to Earth.
Short thoughts (only leans so far):
Seattle v Texas
Leaning Mariners of course. Baek has had some quality outings and Padilla is plain awful. I hope ESPN site misspelled his wager for the season. 9 million for what exactly? The Rangers aren't hitting, and the Mariners are giving hell to anyone they play against, excelling to a hot hitting team in the past few weeks and keeping it at a rather high level.
If I play this, I will be tempted to play an adjusted runline, -1 or -2 depends on what I decide, of course the stakes will be estimated accordingly.
Washington - LA Dodgers
Leaning over. Hendrickson has been bad lately and Bowie won't pitch a gem. The Nats have been shutout in two straight and I expect SOME KIND of response here. 5 runs at least. Slim chance I'll be touching it though.
That's probably it for me, if I find anything else that catches my eye I'll post it. Good luck tonight guys. :cheers: :shake:
4-0 yesterday, one of the best days of the season. Let's try to keep the streak going.
Some thoughts first:
Blue Jays - White Sox
Dear Blue Jay backer,
You are paying for the name of Roy Halladay. Meaning you are being ripped before the game even started.
The thing is, no one can come close to determininig which Halladay shows up. A very good chance is, and my guess would be, a sub par one, even more due to the fact he actually returned before scheduled date. He might be quite rusty at this point.
Now why. Halladay went 4-0, 2.28 ERA in April, the Jays were 5-1 behind him on the mound. Perfect picture.
Then injury troubles started, and as he returned, these are the numbers:
May 5th @Texas (lost 11-4)(5.1 IP, 12 hits, 9 ERs, 99 pitches in only 5.1 innings of work)
May 10thv Boston (lost 8-0)(5 IP, 11 hits, 7 ERs, 87 pitches)
A combined ERA of 13.94 (16 ERs in 10.1 IP)
Easily his worst stint in YEARS. PLUS:
Only 4 runs of support in two matches by the team.
He's fresh off the DL. You can't count on a pitcher to step up. And normally, had the White Sox continued their hot hitting streak and actually won games they go up 6-0 in, I would make this a 10 unit bet(maximum play).
But not now. I just can't. The White Sox have been a moneymaker for me throughout the years, but this year they can't seem to find consistency, that's why they're constantly floating around .500 (and few games above) instead of chasing their fellow Sox' record.
They're losing games they should win, and losing tied games easily. However, the price here is faltered. Buehrle (2-1, 3.86 ERA) has been quite a strange pitcher this year. He's been losing games he should've dominated (against KC he allowed 4 ERs and 7 hits in 6 innings of work, 8 hits, 4 ERs against TB (at home), and inspired the team to win against the teams like LAA, Cleveland or Oakland.
The fact remains however, the Sox are 7-2 behind him this year, the only losses coming against the Cubs and the Angels. He is 1-0, 4.05 ERA on the road this year.
A few downsides to the bet:
>Wells is hitting .550 against him in 20 at bats (11-for-20)
>Troy Glaus is 6-for-15 (.400) against Buehrle
>Reed Johnson is hitting .304 (7-for-22) off him
(overall 30-for-100)
The Jays have however, waken up in the last few weeks, a small uptrend is notable. They should be inspired to score for their ace after letting him down in consecutive games (and vice versa, as you like it).
All in all, the White Sox have lost 4 straight and quite frankly, with a big questionmark of how Halladay adapts to the game straight off the DL, I would rate this one in small favor of the Jays. So the value is on the Pale Sox if you ask me. Still not sure if I take them.
My guess is, Toronto should be backable tomorrow, when they send out a really hot pitcher in AJ Burnett, against Vasquez. At a better price.
Angels RL (2.02 @ Pinnacle) 8 units
This team is built to win in series. And they're doing it. Baltimore Orioles, on the other hand, are already showing signs of MAJOR slowing down following their impressive hitting streak. Let me tell you one thing: Gil Meche was very close to shutting them down last night and had KC reacted better with men in scoring position, they would've won, and we would all talk about the O's team that lost to Kansas.
Now we're talking about an O's team that swept KC on the ROAD, and dominated all 3 games. They actually could've lost easily last night, but they took their chances in late innings and sealed the W.
Travelling to the Angel stadium facing the Halos lineup will be a different story. Note their last night's win came behind Bedard, one of their best starters. Tonight they'll send out Brian Burres (2-2, 3.27 ERA), who has been solid so far. He's had a quality start against Oakland 6.0 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, and at first glance he hasn't let in more than 2 runs at all this year, except once against Cleveland. However, he didn't actually pitch long innings. Usually he was relieved at first sign of trouble. So his numbers are deceiving. Also, he gave quite a lot of hits even in games he went 5 innings (7 hits against Bosto n and Toronto.
Ok. It could happen. But don't expect any mercy from the Angels. Not only are they hitting guys like this (not going long innings, prone to giving up a lot of hits, etc) on a regular basis, but they've been murdering lefties as well (.278 as a team in 2007, .291 in last 10 games).
The Angels will send out Kelvim Escobar (6-2, 2.64 ERA) who has been a stud in the true meaning of the word this year. He's been a big game player, and the only start he collapsed in was the one in Detroit at Comerica.
Escobar is 4-1, 1.76 ERA at home this year, and 12-4 with nine saves and a 3.76 ERA in 33 career appearances, including 17 starts, against the Orioles. Tejada is hitting only .138 off him, Roberts .188, Mora .222. And these guys have been the core element of the team against KC and Oakland during the 5 game winning streak.
Coming off a hard fought battle last night, traveling to California, facing a pitcher they can't figure out, handing the Halos a leftie they can feast off...
The Angels are 19-7 at home this year and this is a perfect spot for the suddenly streaking Orioles to come back to Earth.
Short thoughts (only leans so far):
Seattle v Texas
Leaning Mariners of course. Baek has had some quality outings and Padilla is plain awful. I hope ESPN site misspelled his wager for the season. 9 million for what exactly? The Rangers aren't hitting, and the Mariners are giving hell to anyone they play against, excelling to a hot hitting team in the past few weeks and keeping it at a rather high level.
If I play this, I will be tempted to play an adjusted runline, -1 or -2 depends on what I decide, of course the stakes will be estimated accordingly.
Washington - LA Dodgers
Leaning over. Hendrickson has been bad lately and Bowie won't pitch a gem. The Nats have been shutout in two straight and I expect SOME KIND of response here. 5 runs at least. Slim chance I'll be touching it though.
That's probably it for me, if I find anything else that catches my eye I'll post it. Good luck tonight guys. :cheers: :shake:
. :cheers:
