GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
Yesterday: -0.7675 units
I truly appreciate the warm welcomes yesterday. I am really impressed with the quality of the forum and information provided and look forward to contributing and helping on another.
I provide my information with the understanding that what I write is EXACTLY what I play at the EXACT lines I play at. I play mostly at Matchbook, which I recommend to anyone looking to maximize their efficiency and bankroll, so if you do not play at a reduced juice shop, the lines I play at will likely be better than the ones you get.
Took a tough one on the chin yesterday with the Phillies. Awesome call by JWK who played the Phils for the first 5 innings.
OVER BALT/CLEVE 10.5 (-119) (2 UNITS) - Zach Jackson gets the surprising call up for the Tribe to replace Paul Byrd. Jackson, a 25 year old lefthander, was a throw in for the Tribe in the CC Sabathia deal. In three years in the Brewers chain, he showed limited stuff with PERA's that far exceeded his ERA. He was pummeled in Triple A in Nashville earlier this season. In 57.3 innings at Nashville, he allowed 81 hits and 54 runs, had an ERA of 7.85 with a 34:18 K:BB ratio. He has looked a bit better at Triple A Buffalo where in 26.7 innings he has allowed 25 hits, 13 runs, a 4.05 ERA and 20:5 K:BB ratio. However, in his last two starts, he has tossed just 10 innings and allowed 16 hits and 10 earned runs (9.00 ERA). The O's are 21-8 OVER against lefties this season and have gone over their last 9 starts against left handers and have averaged 6.78 runs in those 9 games. Their record against lefties is 11-20 and leads people to think they struggle against southpaws, but those numbers are very misleading. They average 5.2 runs per game against lefties overall (more than half a run more than against righties) and are hitting .285 against lefties (more than 25 points higher than against righties). In their last 16 games, their hit totals are: 10, 17, 12, 6, 16, 10, 11, 10, 9, 8, 15, 14, 14, 9, 10 and 12 for an average of 11.44 per game. Betcrimes1984 has provided great insight with his information that: Baltimore has gone 67 games without posting consecutive Under results. They are 44-19-4 to Over during this period, and are 16-0-2 to Over off their last 18 Under results." August 8th and 9th was a close call to that streak as both games landed 10 and 10.5's were available on both games although some 10 minus juice was available. With Wednesday's UNDER, Thursday falls into the back-to-back trend. Daniel Cabrera comes in off one of his best starts of the season, but in his 4 prior starts, he tossed 23 innings and allowed 31 hits, 22 earned runs and 11 walks. In his last 39.7 innings, he has allowed 24 walks. Marvin Hudson will be behind the plate tomorrow. Hudson has one of the lowest strike percentages in the majors at 61.3% and averages 8.4 walks per game. Cabrera could struggle with Hudson's strike zone.
KANSAS CITY +157 (1.75 UNITS) - Lance Broadway is a Tommy John surgery survivor who has limited upside. His fastball hits high 80's at best and he relies on a changeup and curve ball. He is a run of the mill spot starter who I doubt will have much of a MLB career. In his last 8 Triple A starts, he tossed 42 innings and allowed 60 hits, 37 earned runs and had a 36:17 K:BB ratio. He showed the same longitudinal trends last year where he tailed off in dramatically towards August, which shouldn't shock anyone when dealing with a Tommy John surgery recoveree who is approaching 140 innings tossed for the season. While Kyle Davies is no world-beater, Lance Broadway has no business laying this type of chalk against any major league pitcher. Davies will not dominate anyone and struggled in his last start with control, but in his last 6 starts, he has been competetive and has not yielded more than 3 runs. In his two starts against the White Sox this season, he has lasted into the 6th in both starts, and allowed 3 runs in each game.
CUBS -135 (1.5 UNITS) - Maybe I am stepping into a trap but I don't understand this line. Tom Glavine will be making his first start off the DL and clearly won't go deep into the game. The Braves' pen is a complete horror show, is overused and is the equivalent of a Triple A pen at best. The Cubs' have a huge bullpen advantage and Carlos Marmol is well rested. Meanwhile, Ted Lilly is coming off 5 consecutive quality starts. In those 5 starts, he has thrown 32.7 innings and allowed 32 hits, 10 earned runs (2.76 ERA) with a 25:11 K:BB ratio. The Cubs crush lefties with a 23-11 record, averaging 6.3 runs per game and with a .287 average. Ramirez and Soriano have strong success off Glavine. Atlanta is nothing special against lefties with a 16-22 record averaging 4.4 runs per game. The Cubs are 36-13 when favored between -125 and -175 this season. I will take the bait and lay the wood.
UNDER SF/HOU 9 RUNS (-103) (0.75 UNITS)
UNDER SF/HOU 1ST 5 INNS 5 (-102) (0.75 UNITS)
UNDER METS/WASH 8.5 RUNS (-114) (1.25 UNITS)
PHILADELPHIA +118 1ST 5 INNINGS (1.25 UNITS)
I truly appreciate the warm welcomes yesterday. I am really impressed with the quality of the forum and information provided and look forward to contributing and helping on another.
I provide my information with the understanding that what I write is EXACTLY what I play at the EXACT lines I play at. I play mostly at Matchbook, which I recommend to anyone looking to maximize their efficiency and bankroll, so if you do not play at a reduced juice shop, the lines I play at will likely be better than the ones you get.
Took a tough one on the chin yesterday with the Phillies. Awesome call by JWK who played the Phils for the first 5 innings.
OVER BALT/CLEVE 10.5 (-119) (2 UNITS) - Zach Jackson gets the surprising call up for the Tribe to replace Paul Byrd. Jackson, a 25 year old lefthander, was a throw in for the Tribe in the CC Sabathia deal. In three years in the Brewers chain, he showed limited stuff with PERA's that far exceeded his ERA. He was pummeled in Triple A in Nashville earlier this season. In 57.3 innings at Nashville, he allowed 81 hits and 54 runs, had an ERA of 7.85 with a 34:18 K:BB ratio. He has looked a bit better at Triple A Buffalo where in 26.7 innings he has allowed 25 hits, 13 runs, a 4.05 ERA and 20:5 K:BB ratio. However, in his last two starts, he has tossed just 10 innings and allowed 16 hits and 10 earned runs (9.00 ERA). The O's are 21-8 OVER against lefties this season and have gone over their last 9 starts against left handers and have averaged 6.78 runs in those 9 games. Their record against lefties is 11-20 and leads people to think they struggle against southpaws, but those numbers are very misleading. They average 5.2 runs per game against lefties overall (more than half a run more than against righties) and are hitting .285 against lefties (more than 25 points higher than against righties). In their last 16 games, their hit totals are: 10, 17, 12, 6, 16, 10, 11, 10, 9, 8, 15, 14, 14, 9, 10 and 12 for an average of 11.44 per game. Betcrimes1984 has provided great insight with his information that: Baltimore has gone 67 games without posting consecutive Under results. They are 44-19-4 to Over during this period, and are 16-0-2 to Over off their last 18 Under results." August 8th and 9th was a close call to that streak as both games landed 10 and 10.5's were available on both games although some 10 minus juice was available. With Wednesday's UNDER, Thursday falls into the back-to-back trend. Daniel Cabrera comes in off one of his best starts of the season, but in his 4 prior starts, he tossed 23 innings and allowed 31 hits, 22 earned runs and 11 walks. In his last 39.7 innings, he has allowed 24 walks. Marvin Hudson will be behind the plate tomorrow. Hudson has one of the lowest strike percentages in the majors at 61.3% and averages 8.4 walks per game. Cabrera could struggle with Hudson's strike zone.
KANSAS CITY +157 (1.75 UNITS) - Lance Broadway is a Tommy John surgery survivor who has limited upside. His fastball hits high 80's at best and he relies on a changeup and curve ball. He is a run of the mill spot starter who I doubt will have much of a MLB career. In his last 8 Triple A starts, he tossed 42 innings and allowed 60 hits, 37 earned runs and had a 36:17 K:BB ratio. He showed the same longitudinal trends last year where he tailed off in dramatically towards August, which shouldn't shock anyone when dealing with a Tommy John surgery recoveree who is approaching 140 innings tossed for the season. While Kyle Davies is no world-beater, Lance Broadway has no business laying this type of chalk against any major league pitcher. Davies will not dominate anyone and struggled in his last start with control, but in his last 6 starts, he has been competetive and has not yielded more than 3 runs. In his two starts against the White Sox this season, he has lasted into the 6th in both starts, and allowed 3 runs in each game.
CUBS -135 (1.5 UNITS) - Maybe I am stepping into a trap but I don't understand this line. Tom Glavine will be making his first start off the DL and clearly won't go deep into the game. The Braves' pen is a complete horror show, is overused and is the equivalent of a Triple A pen at best. The Cubs' have a huge bullpen advantage and Carlos Marmol is well rested. Meanwhile, Ted Lilly is coming off 5 consecutive quality starts. In those 5 starts, he has thrown 32.7 innings and allowed 32 hits, 10 earned runs (2.76 ERA) with a 25:11 K:BB ratio. The Cubs crush lefties with a 23-11 record, averaging 6.3 runs per game and with a .287 average. Ramirez and Soriano have strong success off Glavine. Atlanta is nothing special against lefties with a 16-22 record averaging 4.4 runs per game. The Cubs are 36-13 when favored between -125 and -175 this season. I will take the bait and lay the wood.
UNDER SF/HOU 9 RUNS (-103) (0.75 UNITS)
UNDER SF/HOU 1ST 5 INNS 5 (-102) (0.75 UNITS)
UNDER METS/WASH 8.5 RUNS (-114) (1.25 UNITS)
PHILADELPHIA +118 1ST 5 INNINGS (1.25 UNITS)
