MLB Thursday 7/14

[Wiretowire]

YTD +5630
6-3 last with 3 pushes - And that boys and girls is why I risk the, on average, 20 cents (unders) or 30 cents (overs) to buy a half run on or off the totals before I bet them. That insurance turned a losing day into a winning one and that happens more often than you would imagine.

Thanks for the response Inzane. Always appreciated. GL

All x50 each -140 overs -130 unders

Pitt +2 1/2 -240 - I see Thompson as more consistently solid than Garrett. Yet Miami is -170? No surprise if Pirates win outright.
SD ML -120 - Trying Snell here with nice road odds as he has looked good in his last two starts but be careful Rockies have roughed him up twice this year.
Detroit +2 1/2 -160 - Should Cle ever be favored -220 against anyone?
LA ML -150 - Really just a question of which offense is better and that had to creep into the Cards minds losing a big lead and the game like that last night. Makes a player think we can't beat these guys.
CHW +2 1/2 -220 - I hate to back Cueto even if it is my old team but he looks a lot better than Gray and it won't shock if the Sox win outright. (Very nice +140 dog) But LaRussa better enjoy it because there is no way he will be coach of this team after the all star break if he even lasts that long.
Mets ML -130 - Pitching matchup is pretty even in this one. Just taking the good road favorite odds and the better overall team.
MLW/SF over 5 (buying a full run off -200) bet -400/+200 - Over 5, any pitchers, any park, any teams, every time.

NOTE: Looking at a Mets/Toronto series parlay. May post it later when I see the odds.

GL

 

[2daBank]

Jays number gonna be crazy high with so many kc players not vaxed.

 

[2daBank]

They have overpriced fish this whole series imo. Pirates actually own the fish, who knew they owned anyone? They do struggle w lefties so I suspect Garrett be good, agree -170 for him insane.

 

[King Slap]

YTD: +5630?

You joking? That's incredible

 

[inZane]

Good luck today Wire. And I always buy off the half run in totals.

I did take under 12 at Coors today. Hopefully I won't be kicking myself in the ass later...

:cheers3:

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks Bank. Good point on KC. It is crazy high at Jays -600. Good call. GL

Thanks King. Actually, should be 3,000 higher except for some single series bets at -300 odds I fucked up. GL

Thanks Inzane. On that Colo under, Snell looks ok having allowed 1, 1, and 4 runs in last three starts. It was Freeland that made me walk away having allowed 6, 4, and 3 runs in his last 3 starts. I will root for you. GL

ADDING>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Series parlays:

Mets -200
Toronto -600
Atlanta -370

-100/+120

Detroit +200
CHW +130

-50/+300

GL

 

[Wiretowire]

Also ADDING>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Cinn/NYY over 7 -140 - Total dropped to something I can handle. GL

 

[2daBank]

Jfc, I knew it was gonna be high but -600? Wowzer! I don’t look at series prices very often but I assume they almost never even -400 are they?

 

[lvmike32]

Hey Wire,
Just wanted to say hello and let you know I read this and a few other Baseball threads every day. Not betting Baseball this year but intend to start next season. I don't cap so I really appreciate professional level cappers like you who are willing to share your expertise in the various sports. thank you.

I have 2 questions I've been meaning to ask you. If either of them or any others I ask are "confidential" and you don't want to share, no worries not answering. I fully understand.

1. First one I don't think would be too confidential. I notice you bet a lot of the +2 1/2 run lines at heavy juice, often in -2xx, even -3xx range. Is this profitable long term? I was always schooled never to lay juice like that on an individual game (i.e. like on a great pitcher). You seem to keep great records so I assume you know your record on these +2 1/2 plays and that they must be profitable for you long term or you wouldn't make them. But also seems like you have to win about 3 out of 4 to make money and that seems like a tall order, even getting another 2 1/2 runs. Anyway, I'd love to hear your thoughts on these particular bets.

2. This one might be more confidential in nature. I currently have Circa set up and I'm going to fund my BOL and BM accounts offshore again soon to get ready to start betting CF seriously again this season. My question here is I see you buy 1/2 run off your Total plays always. And I see your comment here today on why that is a profitable move. Circa is pretty lame (as our most US books that I've seen) and doesn't allow you to buy 1/2 off Totals, at least as far as I've tried on the App. I haven't checked BOL and BM yet. Do you know if they do allow this option? Or can you let me know what Book does if these 2 don't? Again, if this is somehow confidential to you, no worries and I'll eventually figure it out. I've found BOL and BM usually carry just about every bet option. I live here in Las Vegas.

Again, thank you for your willingness to share your plays. Greatly appreciated. thanks, Mike

 

[chipnotized]

Jfc, I knew it was gonna be high but -600? Wowzer! I don’t look at series prices very often but I assume they almost never even -400 are they?

It used to catch my eye when a series price was in the 300's, but -500 isn't too rare nowadays. Bronx bombers went off at -550 this week over the Reds.
I'll be sweating the series finale today along with Wire.

 

[2daBank]

It used to catch my eye when a series price was in the 300's, but -500 isn't too rare nowadays. Bronx bombers went off at -550 this week over the Reds.
I'll be sweating the series finale today along with Wire.

Damn. I be sweating too, I’d love to be on Castillo +500! Lol. All I need is him to punch out 6 yanks, they can score 10 after that!! Thanks for the reply, hope you cash it.

 

[chipnotized]

Good luck today Wire. And I always buy off the half run in totals.

I did take under 12 at Coors today. Hopefully I won't be kicking myself in the ass later...

:cheers3:

I'm a seller of the half runs...one day I'll bring a jug of Canadian whisky up the hill and we'll compare notes.

 

[inZane]

I'm a seller of the half runs...one day I'll bring a jug of Canadian whisky up the hill and we'll compare notes.

Where you at?

 

[2daBank]

I'm a seller of the half runs...one day I'll bring a jug of Canadian whisky up the hill and we'll compare notes.

Me too. Not anymore but when I played offshore and bet way more totals I would sell half runs and sometimes full runs for plus money: I know these guys do it but I don’t think I could hit a good enough clip to profit adding juice!

 

[chipnotized]

Where you at?

East of the Rockies and west of the rest.

 

[Wiretowire]

Yes, Bank as the others have said I have never seen a series price as high as -600. GL

Thanks Chip Not much of a whisky drinker but I will surely meet up with you guys for one or two. Maybe Vegas when I am out there some day. GL

Thanks for the post Mike. First of all, nothing is considered "personal" to me. I will answer any question but some may not like the answers. That's true but also a joke. As for your questions:

1. Yes I do fabulously well getting +2 1/2 runs. I understand your concern, but you actually have to win 2 not 3 or 4 to break even. Yes 3 to make money but those have been my best money makers for many years. I get that you were told not to lay high juice, but I think that's an old wife's tale that many never get over. I lay high juice and am up over $5,000 this year. There is a time and place for taking a chance with that. You can't just take every +2 1/2 and expect to win. The games must be capped and to tell the truth I almost always take +2 1/2 runs on dogs I think have a better than even chance to win the game outright. I have been told some posters will bet my + runs as big ML dogs and it works for them. I don't know because I count the wins but don't keep track of the ML dog wins. The game of baseball always has been played for 1 run. It's just in the last so many years teams are winning by softball scores.

If you hold + 2 1/2 runs you are most likely the visitor. That means that your opponent the home team often only gets 8 innings. If the home team goes to the 9th, it means you are already in good shape. You have no idea how many times it is the bottom of the 8th and I am rooting for my team to just get 3 outs because I am behind by two runs. Also, in extra innings teams play for 1 run to win. Think about those situations and you will see added value in that bet. The other team has to beat me by 3 or more runs. That's huge. Just look at the last couple days scores and you will see how close these games usually are.

2. I use a lot of online books. The two I have used most often recently is betonline (+2 1/2 runs there) and 5dimes. I forget what the new US 5dimes is called. In all honesty, I think all of the online books offer buying runs and I have yet to see any Vegas sport books offer that option. Other guys in here can tell you as well as I can. Inzane buys runs and I don't know what online book he uses. But I do know if you shop around online books most of them allow you to buy runs.

Hope this gives you some answers. My advice is learn to cap. It's not that hard just time consuming but well worth the effort. Find good info sources and use them. I mostly use the matchups at Covers but every time I mention them CTG mods scowl at me. If there is any other questions I can help with feel free to ask. That is what these forums are for. I have said one of these days I am going post the steps and what factors I look at when I cap games but I haven't gotten around to it yet. Don't want to bore people. I already test their patience just reading my stuff to begin with.

Did you really say "Professional level cappers like you"? You are going to give some people a stroke in here saying that about me. But I appreciate it. :rofl: GL

 

[2daBank]

Jays gonna screw around and lose 1st game of series if they don’t get some act right!! Wonder if hearing all those kc players out made them a bit flat? Never heard of the dude kc had start at pitcher and he goes 5 only allowing 1!! Hopefully matheny terrible pen management shines thru late!!

 

[lvmike32]

Yes, Bank as the others have said I have never seen a series price as high as -600. GL

Thanks Chip Not much of a whisky drinker but I will surely meet up with you guys for one or two. Maybe Vegas when I am out there some day. GL

Thanks for the post Mike. First of all, nothing is considered "personal" to me. I will answer any question but some may not like the answers. That's true but also a joke. As for your questions:

1. Yes I do fabulously well getting +2 1/2 runs. I understand your concern, but you actually have to win 2 not 3 or 4 to break even. Yes 3 to make money but those have been my best money makers for many years. I get that you were told not to lay high juice, but I think that's an old wife's tale that many never get over. I lay high juice and am up over $5,000 this year. There is a time and place for taking a chance with that. You can't just take every +2 1/2 and expect to win. The games must be capped and to tell the truth I almost always take +2 1/2 runs on dogs I think have a better than even chance to win the game outright. I have been told some posters will bet my + runs as big ML dogs and it works for them. I don't know because I count the wins but don't keep track of the ML dog wins. The game of baseball always has been played for 1 run. It's just in the last so many years teams are winning by softball scores.

If you hold + 2 1/2 runs you are most likely the visitor. That means that your opponent the home team often only gets 8 innings. If the home team goes to the 9th, it means you are already in good shape. You have no idea how many times it is the bottom of the 8th and I am rooting for my team to just get 3 outs because I am behind by two runs. Also, in extra innings teams play for 1 run to win. Think about those situations and you will see added value in that bet. The other team has to beat me by 3 or more runs. That's huge. Just look at the last couple days scores and you will see how close these games usually are.

2. I use a lot of online books. The two I have used most often recently is betonline (+2 1/2 runs there) and 5dimes. I forget what the new US 5dimes is called. In all honesty, I think all of the online books offer buying runs and I have yet to see any Vegas sport books offer that option. Other guys in here can tell you as well as I can. Inzane buys runs and I don't know what online book he uses. But I do know if you shop around online books most of them allow you to buy runs.

Hope this gives you some answers. My advice is learn to cap. It's not that hard just time consuming but well worth the effort. Find good info sources and use them. I mostly use the matchups at Covers but every time I mention them CTG mods scowl at me. If there is any other questions I can help with feel free to ask. That is what these forums are for. I have said one of these days I am going post the steps and what factors I look at when I cap games but I haven't gotten around to it yet. Don't want to bore people. I already test their patience just reading my stuff to begin with.

Did you really say "Professional level cappers like you"? You are going to give some people a stroke in here saying that about me. But I appreciate it. :rofl: GL

thanks for the great response here Wire. Figured you won on the +2 1/2 but your strong response more than confirms. And think you're right - I'm sure BOL and/or BM will have the buy runs options. It's amazing how shitty the books based here in LV are - I've tried Circa and Westgate Superbook here now and they're crap, like not much with Team Totals being an example. As for capping myself, just too old and learning just doesn't fit in my life at all. If I could do it over again I'd have started playing Poker and capping in HS and would have tried to make a living at it. Not sure you can even do it capping, seems the books wouldn't let anyone win at that level year after year. I'm just very fortunate that there are many professional level cappers (and yes I think you're definitely one) willing to post and share their plays on these forums. I've done pretty well over the years reading and tailing guys I come to feel are top notch. Anyway, hope your great season here continues these next few months. thanks again, Mike