GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
SEASON: 13-5, +12.100 Units
YESTERDAY: 7-1, +8.4375 units
Good to get a good kick start to the season and an incredibly fun 7-0 night after an 0-1 afternoon. Since there seem to be a lot of new and young bettors out there that are reading my daily thread, I feel compelled to sermonize a bit. This certainly is not directed at any of my seasoned and veteran friends, whose thoughts and comments I continue to appreciate. Winning at gambling and particular when betting baseball is a marathon and not a sprint and the key is MONEY MANAGEMENT. Yes, I was 7-0 last night but I assure you there could easily be days when I go 0-7 also. The key is managing the peaks and valleys. No single winning day will lead you to retirement and no single day should lead you to bankruptcy. My units is between 1-2% of my overall bankroll with my bankroll not necessarily being what I have in my gaming accounts but the overall number in my mind I have allocated for gaming purposes. So having stated that, I am the tortoise and not the hare and I am not necessarily the "Flavor of the Day" if you are looking for a one day or one week bail out. I am trying to grind out a nice profit by hunting for value and there will be highs and lows throughout the season so just because right now I am coming off a short term high, I will continue to bet and risk the same amounts and not up the ante. Heed this warning. I am 13-5 which is 72.2%. My goal is to hit 52% which will reward me handsomely so expect some regression!
KANSAS CITY +115 (2 Units) - I may be in the minority but I am somewhat of a Jeremy Guthrie fan and think he is below the radar. In his L 11 starts last season, he allowed 2 runs or less in 9 of them and a subpar Royals' team was 10-1 on those games. Pale Hose hitters are 38 for 187 against Guthrie for a .203 average. Last season in 29 2/3 innings against the White Sox....drum roll please.....Guthrie had an ERA of 0.30. Meanwhile, in 2012, for the first time in his career, Floyd spent time on the disabled list, making two visits due to elbow issues and was torched this spring and vulnerable to the long ball. I still think the Royals are the better team with the better pen and after losing the first two games of the series, with Guthrie, I love them even more on Thursday.
SAN DIEGO +138 (1.25 Units) - Another under the radar pitcher I like is Eric Stults. He and Jeremy Guthrie ranked in top 10 most profitable pitchers in the majors last year. Stults has a knack for keeping his team in games. In 13 of his 15 starts last year, he allowed 3 earned runs or less. In his L10 starts, the Padres were 8-2 and he allowed 3 runs or less in 9 of those 10 games. Let's face it, the Mets aren't as good as their first two games and the Padres aren't as bad. Dillon Gee is coming off a season that was ended early due to a blood clot from his right shoulder and he struggled a bit in spring training. I don't think he is yet in synch and I am higher on Stults at this point of the season and think there is tremendous value in the Pods today.
CUBS +134 (1.25 Units) - Price seems a bit high with both teams offenses struggling and no pitching advantage for the Pirates. Travis Wood is a capable pitcher. In 11 of his L13 starts in 2012, he allowed 3 runs or less and he gives the Cubs a chance to win games. The Cubs were horrible in the 2nd half last season so those chances turned into countless losses but with the beginning of a new season comes renewed enthusiasm and I expect better results for Wood. Pirates' hitters are a combined 18 for 89 against Wood for a .202 average. Meanwhile, James McDonald was beaten like an unwanted step child by the the 100+ loss Cubs last year. In 3 starts, he lasted just 15.3 innings and allowed 17 hits, 12 earned runs (7.04 ERA), 3 HRs and 9 BBs. In his final spring tuneup against the Pirates' Double A squad, McDonald lasted only 2 innings and allowed 4 runs, 3 hits, 4 BBs and 2 WPs. In the 2nd half last year, McDonald's ERA was 7.52 with a 1.79 WHIP and he struggled with command and that command didn't seem to improve this spring. I don't see where the Bucs have such an advantage today to be laying such a high price.
PHILLIES +117 (1.25 Units) - In 2008, Cliff Lee went an incredible 22-3. In that season he threw 223.3 innings and allowed 214 hits, had a 170:34 K:BB ratio. In 2012, Lee was an inexplicable 6-9 and tossed 211 innings and allowed 207 hits and had a 207:28 K:BB ratio. Very similar numbers and very different results. The big difference was the long ball as Lee allowed just 12 in 2008 leading to a 2.54 ERA and last season he allowed 26 which led to an ERA of 3.16. But let's not ignore the obvious. Lee's record last year makes no sense as he still had an outstanding season and he still looks like a top 10 pitcher to me. In Major League history, of the 379 instances when a pitcher had 200 or more K's with an ERA lower than 3.25 and WHIP lower than 1.25 in a season, no pitcher managed fewer wins that Lee. His 7.16 K:BB ratio the past 3 years is the best in the majors. The Phillies gave Lee just 3.2 runs of support last season, the 4th lowest amount in the majors. Braves' hitters' numbers are just mediocre against Lee (44 for 169 for a .260 average) with 3 HRs) and I expect Lee to start the season on a mission to prove last year's W/L results were just an aberration. Kris Medlen was simply outstanding last season. An ERA of 1.57 and WHIP of 0.91 is undenaible. However, he did struggle this spring and admitted to having problems leaving his slider out over the plate. In 22.7 innings, he allowed 32 hits and 19 earned runs (7.22 ERA). The way to go here is either the UNDER or the Phillies but for today, I am choosing Cliff Lee and the Phillies.
ANGELS +108 (1.25 Units)
TIGERS -134 (1.4 Units)
ORIOLES +101 (1.25 Units)
YESTERDAY: 7-1, +8.4375 units
Good to get a good kick start to the season and an incredibly fun 7-0 night after an 0-1 afternoon. Since there seem to be a lot of new and young bettors out there that are reading my daily thread, I feel compelled to sermonize a bit. This certainly is not directed at any of my seasoned and veteran friends, whose thoughts and comments I continue to appreciate. Winning at gambling and particular when betting baseball is a marathon and not a sprint and the key is MONEY MANAGEMENT. Yes, I was 7-0 last night but I assure you there could easily be days when I go 0-7 also. The key is managing the peaks and valleys. No single winning day will lead you to retirement and no single day should lead you to bankruptcy. My units is between 1-2% of my overall bankroll with my bankroll not necessarily being what I have in my gaming accounts but the overall number in my mind I have allocated for gaming purposes. So having stated that, I am the tortoise and not the hare and I am not necessarily the "Flavor of the Day" if you are looking for a one day or one week bail out. I am trying to grind out a nice profit by hunting for value and there will be highs and lows throughout the season so just because right now I am coming off a short term high, I will continue to bet and risk the same amounts and not up the ante. Heed this warning. I am 13-5 which is 72.2%. My goal is to hit 52% which will reward me handsomely so expect some regression!
KANSAS CITY +115 (2 Units) - I may be in the minority but I am somewhat of a Jeremy Guthrie fan and think he is below the radar. In his L 11 starts last season, he allowed 2 runs or less in 9 of them and a subpar Royals' team was 10-1 on those games. Pale Hose hitters are 38 for 187 against Guthrie for a .203 average. Last season in 29 2/3 innings against the White Sox....drum roll please.....Guthrie had an ERA of 0.30. Meanwhile, in 2012, for the first time in his career, Floyd spent time on the disabled list, making two visits due to elbow issues and was torched this spring and vulnerable to the long ball. I still think the Royals are the better team with the better pen and after losing the first two games of the series, with Guthrie, I love them even more on Thursday.
SAN DIEGO +138 (1.25 Units) - Another under the radar pitcher I like is Eric Stults. He and Jeremy Guthrie ranked in top 10 most profitable pitchers in the majors last year. Stults has a knack for keeping his team in games. In 13 of his 15 starts last year, he allowed 3 earned runs or less. In his L10 starts, the Padres were 8-2 and he allowed 3 runs or less in 9 of those 10 games. Let's face it, the Mets aren't as good as their first two games and the Padres aren't as bad. Dillon Gee is coming off a season that was ended early due to a blood clot from his right shoulder and he struggled a bit in spring training. I don't think he is yet in synch and I am higher on Stults at this point of the season and think there is tremendous value in the Pods today.
CUBS +134 (1.25 Units) - Price seems a bit high with both teams offenses struggling and no pitching advantage for the Pirates. Travis Wood is a capable pitcher. In 11 of his L13 starts in 2012, he allowed 3 runs or less and he gives the Cubs a chance to win games. The Cubs were horrible in the 2nd half last season so those chances turned into countless losses but with the beginning of a new season comes renewed enthusiasm and I expect better results for Wood. Pirates' hitters are a combined 18 for 89 against Wood for a .202 average. Meanwhile, James McDonald was beaten like an unwanted step child by the the 100+ loss Cubs last year. In 3 starts, he lasted just 15.3 innings and allowed 17 hits, 12 earned runs (7.04 ERA), 3 HRs and 9 BBs. In his final spring tuneup against the Pirates' Double A squad, McDonald lasted only 2 innings and allowed 4 runs, 3 hits, 4 BBs and 2 WPs. In the 2nd half last year, McDonald's ERA was 7.52 with a 1.79 WHIP and he struggled with command and that command didn't seem to improve this spring. I don't see where the Bucs have such an advantage today to be laying such a high price.
PHILLIES +117 (1.25 Units) - In 2008, Cliff Lee went an incredible 22-3. In that season he threw 223.3 innings and allowed 214 hits, had a 170:34 K:BB ratio. In 2012, Lee was an inexplicable 6-9 and tossed 211 innings and allowed 207 hits and had a 207:28 K:BB ratio. Very similar numbers and very different results. The big difference was the long ball as Lee allowed just 12 in 2008 leading to a 2.54 ERA and last season he allowed 26 which led to an ERA of 3.16. But let's not ignore the obvious. Lee's record last year makes no sense as he still had an outstanding season and he still looks like a top 10 pitcher to me. In Major League history, of the 379 instances when a pitcher had 200 or more K's with an ERA lower than 3.25 and WHIP lower than 1.25 in a season, no pitcher managed fewer wins that Lee. His 7.16 K:BB ratio the past 3 years is the best in the majors. The Phillies gave Lee just 3.2 runs of support last season, the 4th lowest amount in the majors. Braves' hitters' numbers are just mediocre against Lee (44 for 169 for a .260 average) with 3 HRs) and I expect Lee to start the season on a mission to prove last year's W/L results were just an aberration. Kris Medlen was simply outstanding last season. An ERA of 1.57 and WHIP of 0.91 is undenaible. However, he did struggle this spring and admitted to having problems leaving his slider out over the plate. In 22.7 innings, he allowed 32 hits and 19 earned runs (7.22 ERA). The way to go here is either the UNDER or the Phillies but for today, I am choosing Cliff Lee and the Phillies.
ANGELS +108 (1.25 Units)
TIGERS -134 (1.4 Units)
ORIOLES +101 (1.25 Units)
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