MLB Thursday 3/30

Wiretowire

Wiretowire

Pretty much a regular
YTD no record - first post of the new season.

All x100 each overs -140 buying 1/2 run off

Wash +2 1/2 -140/+100 - Fried was very good last year but I'll try the home team plus runs at good odds.
SF/Yanks over 7 - Cole and Webb hittable but Cole more than Webb. Live dog on SF +160 here
MLW/Cubs over 7 - Shocked they put a total on a Wrigley game already.
Phil/Texas over 6 - Degrom would be the pick here to win if you play the name game. Don't EVER play the name game.
Tor/StL over 7 - I think I can find 3-3 here for no worse than a push.
Col/SD over 7 - Neither of these starters that good to deserve a low total like this. SD is an under park but still.....
Mets/Miami over 6 - Probably the only matchup (on paper) that should have a total this low. But 3-3 wins so what the hell.
CHW/Hou over 6 1/2 - Decent starter matchup and I hate what Altuve being out could do to the Houston offense and I absolutely hate laying the 1/2 run hook but this is the only game being played at 7 pm so I have to bet something don't I? If this ends 4-2 it serves me right.
AZ/LA over 7 - I'm pretty sure I am the only person on this planet that thinks LA may have a so so season with maybe 90 wins. I think they lost some offensive chemistry but I have been wrong by that kind of think before. Besides 90 wins is a pretty good season it's just that they are used to 100 wins and I'm not sure they get that. As I said I have been wrong before so we will see,
Cle/Sea over 6 - Under park here too but I'll try 3-3 to cash the ticket.

GL
 
thanks Wire. I'm going to tag along this year and hope you have another great year. Just to make sure I understand 100%:

1. the Overs above reflect buying a 1/2 point at -140. I assume you're just using -140 across the board to grade all these 1/2 buys for simplicity sake?? Because I already found 2 of them at your O/U number at -125.

2. Assume the Wash -2.5 line was -140??

I have BM, BOL and Circa and none of them are letting me buy a number yet, or take the 2.5 run line. Assume sometime tomorrow.

thanks again - and GL this year.
 
also, that SD/Col 7 number does look awfully low. Isn't SD going to go Tatis, Bogaerts, Machado, Soto? Probably get shut out. LOL
 
wiseplayer said:
Agree 100% regarding the Doyers season outcome.
Click to expand...

This feels like a season where they trimming some excess payroll so they can win the Ohtani sweepstakes next offseason. They still sporting a healthy payroll and if their pitching could stay healthy They still as good as anyone but their def some big question marks in rotation and pads are coming!!! This better be the year pads strike cause Ohtani-son is coming to lad soon!
 
Ah yes, baseball season is officially upon us with the maiden W2W regular season post.

Appreciate the info on the plays.

Let's have a great year!
 
Mike,

1. Yes it is simpler to just make buying a 1/2 run off total for overs at -140 and buying 1/2 run on for unders at -130 is for bookkeeping only. My bets vary buying 1/2 run off for overs from -140 down to even -120 but while I will cap all the games I am not going to spend an hour trying to figure out the YTD record based on -125 or -135 bets. Simpler to just keep them the same price and it kind of evens out over whole season. I actually cheat myself some but it's not worth tracking minutely.

2. No I always take +2 1/2 runs. I never give runs in MLB. Some people do that to reduce juice and are very good at it, but I always take runs. When this bet went in at Wash +1 1/2 = +120. Wash +2 1/2 = -140. It has come down a little to +2 1/2 -130 but I stand by what I originally post. I will add to the bet at new odds if the odds get significantly better but that rarely happens. There are people that make money giving runs but I have done very well taking runs.

FYI - Betonline is my usual go to for + runs. Also 5dimes but Betonline has been the best for that for me over the last couple of years. They often will give those late the night before but these were out because it was the first game of the new season.

As for Colo/SD total at 7, I think a lot of these are low to start a season. But remember a couple of factors. Books know SD is an under park. The lineup for SD should be good but the critical factor in these early season over bets isn't the expectation that new rules will help the offense, although they may be a factor, the thing to remember is that no matter how good the teams ace may be no manager is going to leave him out there for more than 100 pitches to start the season unless he has a perfect game going and then more power to him. That means bullpens and runs score off bullpens.

By the way, nice to know you are tagging along. I have had winning seasons in 27 of the last 30 years posting online. But also nice to know you just shot that to hell betting with me! GL :rofl:
 
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Thanks Wire. Got it. Win or lose i appreciate your willingness to share. I dont follow baseball too closely so ill just tail blindly at a 1/2 unit and hope you have another great season and some winning fun. Love those +2.5 run plays in September. Gl
 
lvmike32 said:
Thanks Wire. Got it. Win or lose i appreciate your willingness to share. I dont follow baseball too closely so ill just tail blindly at a 1/2 unit and hope you have another great season and some winning fun. Love those +2.5 run plays in September. Gl
Click to expand...

Those things are great, I’m always trying to get more diverse by stealing angles from others, this one been stolen! I never liked those huge lines we get in sept after the call ups cause I play mostly dogs but tough to find winners with dogs that big, I would freaking never lay -250 or more on a single Mlb game with the most random results of any sport so I basically just ignored those games. Taking +2.5 runs at -140 or less a freaking genius way of playing those!!
 
Thanks Mike. Just teasing you. 1/2 a unit is a perfect way to play. Let's see if we can't pull another winning season out. Just remember it's a long haul. GL

Thanks Bank. GL
 
I wanna say they did this with opening day total at wrigley last year also and I was all excited thinking it was a new thing, don’t think they did it again rest the year. Lol.
 
Not sure which overs I like but i was kinda surprised how many totals that felt super low. Like the over idea on low numbers before these starters are totally stretched out.
 
Good luck this year Wire. I'm holding my breath on how some of the idiotic rule changes play out.

Have you, or anyone on here, heard as to whether a pitcher gets credit for a strikeout if it's due to the clock penalty? I had someone tell me they don't but that makes no sense to me at all and I'm questioning if they were talking out of their arse.
 
Sorry guys I am also working back at school part time so it's hard for me to respond to all during the day. GL

Wise, got the 1/2 bought at 5dimes. I always shop there first. GL

I agree Bank. Hope we hit some of those overs before they raise the totals. GL

Thanks Inzane. I appreciate it. GL

Always nice to hear from you Tim. GL

Thanks Chip. Great time of year!. GL

Geez Wise we will just hide down here in the baseball forum. Shhh. Don't tell anyone we are here. GL

I thought the pitcher gets the strikeout Strohs. GL
 
thanks guys. I'm in Vegas and BAS doesn't take Nevada residents like 5Dimes did. Only state they don't take. I'll have to look around as buying the 1/2 is obviously critical to what Wire does here. I could of sworn I checked this out last season with my 3 books and could do it. Maybe it was just the +2.5 alt run lines. Anyway, thanks
 
lvmike, buying 1/2 is critical to my plays as you said. I am shocked that none of those casino books out there will allow it. I admit I have never tried to do it when I am there. But I have an MGM sportsbook near me here in Ohio and even they let you buy 1/2 points in all sports. GL
 
Wiretowire said:
lvmike, buying 1/2 is critical to my plays as you said. I am shocked that none of those casino books out there will allow it. I admit I have never tried to do it when I am there. But I have an MGM sportsbook near me here in Ohio and even they let you buy 1/2 points in all sports. GL
Click to expand...
Yeah, I have BOL, BM and Circa and none of them let me buy 1/2 today. Used to have 5Dimes but they shut down and BAS doesn't take Nevada residents for some reason. Neither does FD or DK, not that I really want any US based book anyway. I'll keep looking at it but I have other priorities so might not be able to tail, as much as I'd like too. Like I said, when I first started following you last season I thought I checked and could do it. Might just have been getting the +2.5 alt lines for the Sept plays. Sucks - stupid on books part, 99% of people don't win on the buy added juice. Anyway, GL and keep crushing it. thanks
 
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