MLB + Thursday 10/24

[Wiretowire]

YTD +278

Yesterday


MLB 1-0 = +5


Thanks for the responses yesterday Tim and Raise. I appreciate it. GL

Raise/Dexter, nice to hear from you and yes I did say during the AL and NL finals that the AL team would win the World series no matter who the AL team played. You weren't supposed to remember that actually. The reason I said that was because the NL offense was and is terrible. But....... I like Wainwright and Wacha better than anyone on the Boston staff. And yes, even though Wainwright got hammered last night I still like him better than anyone on the Boston staff except Buchholz. I also figured, and still do, that the Cards offense will come to life because of those Boston starters.

But if you look at my series prediction I said I was taking St Louis for the series but I said I was taking that as a pure hedge bet only. I do like two of the St Louis starters better but I thought it would be confusing to say take St Louis for the series but I like Boston's offense better. I also knew that I was expected to predict a series winner but that's why I said this was a hedge bet only. If Wacha wins tonight my hedge is still going to be good because then the series will be 1-1 heading to St Louis and they will in effect regain the home field and if Wacha does win tonight the books will make St Louis a -120 or -130 favorite to win the series and I then immediately bet Boston on the + money and complete the original hedge.

End of story, I am hoping Wacha does his job tonight, the Cards win, I close and win my hedge, and then I don't have to do anything but bet over for the rest of the games and those overs will get a lot easier to win after these two go tonight. I know this whole thing is confusing but there really is a method to my madness. GL

Sides: All for 5 units each

Marshall/M Tenn under 56 1/2 -110 (NCAAF)

Every week I look at all the college football games and look for only those games that I think will go over. Every week I break even or lose in college football. I'm slow but I'm not stupid. I think I may start looking for unders instead of overs and see how that goes starting with this one.

Carolina/Tampa Bay over 40 1/2 -110 (NFL)

I'm not in love with this because it looks to go under but a hunch tells me this one slips over tonight.

St Louis/Boston over 7 -110

To tell you the truth I think the best bet tonight is taking the Cards as a slight dog at +100. But I still have that hedge and if St Louis wins tonight I get to cash it so there is no reason for me to bet St Louis. If I didn't have the series hedge bet then I would be taking St Louis as the best bet tonight. Since I can't I am expected to pick something so I am GUESSING on the total. Looks under with these starters but last night looked under as well so I am GUESSING on another over tonight. One team should carry the load on this total again to go over but did I mention that the best bet tonight was St Louis at even money and I am just GUESSING on this total?

GL

 

[chancedog]

I have STL for the series at +145 for 10 units strictly a value bet. I can take BOS right now for the series at - 145 would you buy back 5 or 10 units now that BOS won game 1

 

[Wiretowire]

No Chance I wouldn't. In a 7 game series the visitor only has to win 1 of the first two games to take the home field advantage away. They will play the next 3 games in St Louis after tonight. If St Louis wins tonight they will become the series favorite at probably -120 possibly -130. Then buying 10 units on Boston at +110 or +120 guarantees a no loss situation and you still root for St Louis to win the series for the maximum profit at +145 (actually +45 per unit). If Boston wins you still get +110 (or +10per unit).

The only thing is you are gambling on Wacha winning tonight. If St Louis loses tonight then you have to just hold on until a better situation presents itself but it won't look good being down 2-0. If Boston wins tonight they will jump to a -300 favorite or higher to win the series having beaten the two best St Louis starters. Your chance to protect will have passed but they still have to win 2 more games and when the Cards go home you never know but it is a gamble. But you took that value bet to begin with which is a gamble anyway.

Bottom line. I would not make any move until after tonight's game if it were my money. GL

 

[chancedog]

Thanks wire for your input and taking the time I was leaning standing pat but the number (BOS -145) confused me

 

[HUNT]

CHance where are you getting that...I have this..

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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>St. Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox - World Series - Best of 7</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Thu 10/24[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]1001 St. Louis Cardinals (Series)[/TD]
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[TD]<input id="radiox" value="M1_39" name="radiox" type="radio">+210 [/TD]
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[/TR]
[TR="class: linesRowBot"]
[TD]8:05PM [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]1002 Boston Red Sox (Series)[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]<input id="radiox" value="M2_39" name="radiox" type="radio">-250


gl w2w..having a helluva year bro.
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[cashflowmatters]

Ok Wire, I have to contradict you on the Cards pitching edge. Pitching against the Dodgers was like pitching against a little league line up with Henley being hurt . The Cards had 4 hits in the 1st 2 games of that series & held a 2-0 lead in the series because the Dodgers could not hit a lick.....Boston can hit & their BP is very solid & their starters are better than average. For the Cards to win games in this series they will need to put up crooked #'s & I question if they can do that based on what I saw in Dodgers series. Just my thoughts

 

[Wiretowire]

Dear Mr. Cash, I agree that pitching against LA was not revealing of their ability. My statement about the Cards staff is based on the year. I think Wainwright and Wacha are more solid than any of the Red Sox pitchers other than Bucholz who I really like. I don't like the other Sox pitchers and I don't like Kelley or Lynn. Yes, Boston can hit I fully agree. But the cards faced two pretty good pitchers themselves in LA that they couldn't hit but then again not many teams did hit against them. I expect to see the Cards offense come to life and I am warning everyone not to count them out yet. I especially think they will hit against the first two starters they will see at home. I think this game tonight is huge because if St Louis wins tonight it is possible that the Cards take the first two in St louis and it goes from 1-0 Boston to 3-1 St Louis.

But if St Louis does win tonight then I was going to spring the "Now the cards will win the next two!!!!!" on everyone and look like a genius if it happened. And if St Louis got beat tonight I would really impress everyone with the prediction that they would tie the series when they were down 0-2. But you went and forced me to show my thoughts about this series too soon.

Geez, don't you just hate when these strange posters come into your threads and start arguing with you? GL

 

[chancedog]

My book adjusted his line from -145 to -260 it was up for at least an hour but they probably would of cancelled my wager if I did insure it
GL to all

 

[cashflowmatters]

No arguments here, just telling you what I see. I am a life long Reds fan so I very familar with the Cards & I have not been impressed with their line up all yr & when they got to the playoffs they were awarded 2 great matchups for them in the Pirates & Dodgers both were teams that showed all yr they were capable of poor offense at the blink of an eye. When was the last time you saw a team get 4 hits in 2 games & win both games?? Thats how bad the Dodgers were. NL just not as good as AL this yr imo. I actually think if ya like the Cards tonight you should couple it with the OVER because the Sox are a more dangerous line up than Wacca faced in the Dodgers series & the Sox/Fenway will get to him tonight. Another variable is Beltrans health, imo he is a big key to a Cards line up that has some holes in it. GL my friend always appreciate your threads especially the ones with your rants. Be good! Cash

 

[mrob]

thx for the winner Wednesday wire...I also like the cards and might as well keep riding the over. GL tonite

 

[bull]

I understand and tend to agree with everything you have said, Wire
as usual, GL