Satyr
Paster of Muppets
Skipped Satyrday baseball last night and frankly, I would've gone 1-1 anyways, so I saved my fingers typing the previews 
.
Anyways, let's jump to today's card, liking plenty of plays here.
Detroit (Robertson) (2.30 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
Now this is just mindless oddsetting. I actually neglected this game when I looked through the card but you can't possibly say Tigers are 2.30 dogs at home, to a slumping Boston team. Yes, you heard me well, slumping.
They're hot and cold, but mostly cold lately, and are actually regressing after playing a bit over their heads for a while. They still have a good lineup, but I would be so brave and say Tigers have a better one.
The pitching mismatch isn't nearly as big as the odds suggest (they actually suggest what, that in a reverse fixture Boston would be 1.30 favs? Laughable is an understatement).
We have to be honest and say Nate Robertson (4-6, 4.86 ERA) is struggling. He is 0-3 with an 8.02 ERA and opponents are batting .363 in his last five starts. He got absolutely torched in the period. But that doesn't mean he should get your classic gas can treatment. This guy is a solid lefty, and Boston on the road and against lefties isn't the best deal ever.
To make this look a bit less gas can-like, Robertson actually faced some solid lineups in the process (Cleveland (twice), Texas (twice), Boston, Seattle). He's not as bad as the oddsmakers are treating him, and you have to know teams will have all star break on their minds.
Matsuzaka is once again overvalued. This guy has been lights out (3-0 with a 0.62 ERA and a .152 opponent batting average in his last four outings -- striking out at least eight batters in each of them) but that doesn't warrant he should be favored this much, against one of the toughest lineups in the league, if not the toughest. The Tigers don't allow too much, they will punish even the slightest insecurity by Dice K and I think backing them here is a bargain.
Detroit could miss Placido Polanco from the lineup, but Boston have Youkilis and Ortiz battered. The mere fact they "have to avoid the sweep" doesn't tell me anything.
Boston are a .500 team since May 30 (17-18) and Detroit are streaking again, after a rather bad period, which launched the Indians back to the number 1 spot.
I'm thinking the home team should actually be slightly favored here or at PK.
Pittsburgh (Youman) (2.58 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
Yeah, the Cubs are playing excellent baseball and Zambrano is posting stud-like numbers again, but that doesn't warrant the odds to be set like this.
His 3.05, 7-1 road record is a bit of an overachieving from his side, and I do expect it to even itself a bit on the long run.
The Cubs are a team on a mission that's for sure and the Pirates definitely don't warrant this much respect, Zambrano or no Zambrano.
Shane Youman is a rather unknown pitcher, he is 1-0, 3.00 ERA this year, and the Cubs don't know his stuff.
Zambrano on the other hand, is quite well known to the home team, Zambrano is 0-3 with a 7.08 ERA in his last four starts against them.
Big Z has been trying to win the trip to the All Star game, but he failed, the fans didn't pick him, I'm thinking this is a good letdown spot for him, against a team he isn't glad to be facing. And remember, the Pirates don't hit many guys this well.
The only concern would be if Adam LaRoche isn't set to go, as he seems to be listed as day to day.
Regardless of that fact, the Pirates at home, after going 6-4 in last 10, at this price is a must take.
Lower stakes due to the fact their offense can't always be trusted.
Texas (Millwood) (1.87 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
Not the biggest fan of betting teams with questionable season plans, but Texas is the play here if you ask me. Kevin Millwood has actually improved since the start of the season.
Millwood (5-7, 6.54) looks to beat the Orioles for the fourth straight start. He is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA and two complete games in his last three starts against Baltimore, and 5-2 with a 4.13 ERA in eight career outings versus the club.
Millwood had pitched much better lately after allowing four runs or more in eight consecutive starts earlier this season. He is 3-1 with a 2.42 ERA in his past four starts, pitching at least six innings in each appearance.
The right-hander was very sharp in an 8-3 win over the Angels on Tuesday, yielding two runs and five hits in eight innings.
The Rangers will welcome facing Daniel Cabrera, a rather volatile pitcher, after struggling last night against Bedard. Cabrera can pitch a no hitter but he can also go out in flames after 3-4 innings. I'll take the latter in this case, a rather underestimated but tough lineup, a road start, and the odds rather solid on the home team, I'm sold on it.
Rangers have Lofton and Jerry Hairston jr listed as day to day but Orioles are missing Tejada for a while, and now could also be without Melvin Mora, which pretty much cripples their lineup, which was under par on the road as it was.
Los Angeles Angels (Santana) (2.80 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
Low stakes but gimme a break with the Angels at triple the money. Ervin Santana is a road kill this year, and nothing can make that prettier than it is. His 1-7, 7.45 ERA road record speaks for itself.
Add to that the fact he went 0-3 with a 5.62 ERA in his last four starts overall and has won only once in his past 6 starts for his team and you have yourself a Yankee play, right?
Well if you can tell me A Rod will surely play, and Guerrero won't (Guerrero isn't injured I'm just setting an example), I would say ok, but reality says the Yanks are a sub .500 team, they have several guys bruised, the Angels are the least favorite team they like playing against, and the Angels are the better team.
Still not enough? How about this: Out of all stadiums and all teams in the majors, Santana has won all four of his career starts against the Yankees, posting a 3.47 ERA. He gave up one run over 6 1-3 innings in his only appearance at Yankee Stadium, a 4-1 Angels victory on July 29, 2005.
A bit distant history now, I don't factor it in really, but the fact remains these guys love playing and beating the Yankees.
Wang, on the other hand, isn't enjoying his time facing Halos' bats; his numbers after two starts are 0-2, 5.40 ERA.
Don't forget the Yanks dropped a thriller last night, which would bring them back to .500, after making season-high 5 errors, including Miguel Cairo's two on the same play, which basically lost the game for them in the 13th.
I think the Halos will find ways to hurt Wang and as long as Santana doesn't fall apart, which I don't think he will, the Angels will have a chance of winning.
Leans (might be small plays):
Colorado-Philadelphia over 10.5
Florida ML
Good luck tonight guys. :cheers::shake:
I will update my YTD record now.
.Anyways, let's jump to today's card, liking plenty of plays here.
Detroit (Robertson) (2.30 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
Now this is just mindless oddsetting. I actually neglected this game when I looked through the card but you can't possibly say Tigers are 2.30 dogs at home, to a slumping Boston team. Yes, you heard me well, slumping.
They're hot and cold, but mostly cold lately, and are actually regressing after playing a bit over their heads for a while. They still have a good lineup, but I would be so brave and say Tigers have a better one.
The pitching mismatch isn't nearly as big as the odds suggest (they actually suggest what, that in a reverse fixture Boston would be 1.30 favs? Laughable is an understatement).
We have to be honest and say Nate Robertson (4-6, 4.86 ERA) is struggling. He is 0-3 with an 8.02 ERA and opponents are batting .363 in his last five starts. He got absolutely torched in the period. But that doesn't mean he should get your classic gas can treatment. This guy is a solid lefty, and Boston on the road and against lefties isn't the best deal ever.
To make this look a bit less gas can-like, Robertson actually faced some solid lineups in the process (Cleveland (twice), Texas (twice), Boston, Seattle). He's not as bad as the oddsmakers are treating him, and you have to know teams will have all star break on their minds.
Matsuzaka is once again overvalued. This guy has been lights out (3-0 with a 0.62 ERA and a .152 opponent batting average in his last four outings -- striking out at least eight batters in each of them) but that doesn't warrant he should be favored this much, against one of the toughest lineups in the league, if not the toughest. The Tigers don't allow too much, they will punish even the slightest insecurity by Dice K and I think backing them here is a bargain.
Detroit could miss Placido Polanco from the lineup, but Boston have Youkilis and Ortiz battered. The mere fact they "have to avoid the sweep" doesn't tell me anything.
Boston are a .500 team since May 30 (17-18) and Detroit are streaking again, after a rather bad period, which launched the Indians back to the number 1 spot.
I'm thinking the home team should actually be slightly favored here or at PK.
Pittsburgh (Youman) (2.58 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
Yeah, the Cubs are playing excellent baseball and Zambrano is posting stud-like numbers again, but that doesn't warrant the odds to be set like this.
His 3.05, 7-1 road record is a bit of an overachieving from his side, and I do expect it to even itself a bit on the long run.
The Cubs are a team on a mission that's for sure and the Pirates definitely don't warrant this much respect, Zambrano or no Zambrano.
Shane Youman is a rather unknown pitcher, he is 1-0, 3.00 ERA this year, and the Cubs don't know his stuff.
Zambrano on the other hand, is quite well known to the home team, Zambrano is 0-3 with a 7.08 ERA in his last four starts against them.
Big Z has been trying to win the trip to the All Star game, but he failed, the fans didn't pick him, I'm thinking this is a good letdown spot for him, against a team he isn't glad to be facing. And remember, the Pirates don't hit many guys this well.
The only concern would be if Adam LaRoche isn't set to go, as he seems to be listed as day to day.
Regardless of that fact, the Pirates at home, after going 6-4 in last 10, at this price is a must take.
Lower stakes due to the fact their offense can't always be trusted.
Texas (Millwood) (1.87 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
Not the biggest fan of betting teams with questionable season plans, but Texas is the play here if you ask me. Kevin Millwood has actually improved since the start of the season.
Millwood (5-7, 6.54) looks to beat the Orioles for the fourth straight start. He is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA and two complete games in his last three starts against Baltimore, and 5-2 with a 4.13 ERA in eight career outings versus the club.
Millwood had pitched much better lately after allowing four runs or more in eight consecutive starts earlier this season. He is 3-1 with a 2.42 ERA in his past four starts, pitching at least six innings in each appearance.
The right-hander was very sharp in an 8-3 win over the Angels on Tuesday, yielding two runs and five hits in eight innings.
The Rangers will welcome facing Daniel Cabrera, a rather volatile pitcher, after struggling last night against Bedard. Cabrera can pitch a no hitter but he can also go out in flames after 3-4 innings. I'll take the latter in this case, a rather underestimated but tough lineup, a road start, and the odds rather solid on the home team, I'm sold on it.
Rangers have Lofton and Jerry Hairston jr listed as day to day but Orioles are missing Tejada for a while, and now could also be without Melvin Mora, which pretty much cripples their lineup, which was under par on the road as it was.
Los Angeles Angels (Santana) (2.80 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
Low stakes but gimme a break with the Angels at triple the money. Ervin Santana is a road kill this year, and nothing can make that prettier than it is. His 1-7, 7.45 ERA road record speaks for itself.
Add to that the fact he went 0-3 with a 5.62 ERA in his last four starts overall and has won only once in his past 6 starts for his team and you have yourself a Yankee play, right?
Well if you can tell me A Rod will surely play, and Guerrero won't (Guerrero isn't injured I'm just setting an example), I would say ok, but reality says the Yanks are a sub .500 team, they have several guys bruised, the Angels are the least favorite team they like playing against, and the Angels are the better team.
Still not enough? How about this: Out of all stadiums and all teams in the majors, Santana has won all four of his career starts against the Yankees, posting a 3.47 ERA. He gave up one run over 6 1-3 innings in his only appearance at Yankee Stadium, a 4-1 Angels victory on July 29, 2005.
A bit distant history now, I don't factor it in really, but the fact remains these guys love playing and beating the Yankees.
Wang, on the other hand, isn't enjoying his time facing Halos' bats; his numbers after two starts are 0-2, 5.40 ERA.
Don't forget the Yanks dropped a thriller last night, which would bring them back to .500, after making season-high 5 errors, including Miguel Cairo's two on the same play, which basically lost the game for them in the 13th.
I think the Halos will find ways to hurt Wang and as long as Santana doesn't fall apart, which I don't think he will, the Angels will have a chance of winning.
Leans (might be small plays):
Colorado-Philadelphia over 10.5
Florida ML
Good luck tonight guys. :cheers::shake:
I will update my YTD record now.
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