Satyr
Paster of Muppets
MLB 2007: 58 W-4V-46 L +74.48 units
Tampa Bay - Florida UNDER 8.5 (2.02 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
Since I expected 8 or even 7.5 combined with a lower price, this one is a bit of a surprise. First of all, the series are over. Florida won last night which only leaves the question hanging of whether the sweep will occur or not. I'm not at all a backer of the anti-sweep theory but situationally I wanted to back Shields tonight, the price chased me away from it. Let me start by saying both of these pitchers are the real deal, Shields (3-0, 3.13 ERA) does have some poor numbers against the other Florida team, but we're talking one start only (5.0 innings, 12.60 ERA) and he's matured since then and has been strong recently as well; Shields is limiting opponents to three runs and nine hits over 17 innings in his previous two outings.
So I expect a strong outing from him tonight, despite the fact the Marlins have been hitting the ball in recent games (the Fish are batting .277 in their last five games with nine homers and 19 extra-base hits), I would expect the trend to end tonight against Shields who has been quite confident on the mound this year.
On the other side, there's a pitcher you can't make a case against either.
Sergio Mitre (1-2, 2.18) will try to win consecutive starts for the first time since June 8-14, 2005, and has pitched well in his last two outings, posting a 1.15 ERA. He's been very dominant so far but still went only 1-2, meaning there's something wrong with the run support his team provides (or doesn't provide) for him.
Since Florida already won the series, I expect less urgency from them tonight, they have a couple of banged up guys and could rest a few, and even though they would like to sweep their state rivals, I'm thinking it will be hard to do against Shields.
I'm well aware that playing under against shaky Tampa bullpen is a gamble, but I'm also convinced the downside for this bet (meaning D-Rays shaky pen) is already carved into the line. Some other factors however, may not be.
So I expect 6 or 7 strong innings by Shields and Mitre to limit frustrated Devil Rays offense, which managed only 6 runs in the last 2 games, as opposed to Marlins' 15.
Side wise, I'd expect the Rays to win, hopefully something like a 3-1 game would do the trick.
That's probably it for tonight, perhaps I'll promote some of my leans to plays later on.
Leans (in order of confidence):
Mets (Maine)
Angels (Escobar) (RL)
Diamondbacks (Johnson)
San Diego (Germano)
Good luck guys. :cheers: :shake:
Tampa Bay - Florida UNDER 8.5 (2.02 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
Since I expected 8 or even 7.5 combined with a lower price, this one is a bit of a surprise. First of all, the series are over. Florida won last night which only leaves the question hanging of whether the sweep will occur or not. I'm not at all a backer of the anti-sweep theory but situationally I wanted to back Shields tonight, the price chased me away from it. Let me start by saying both of these pitchers are the real deal, Shields (3-0, 3.13 ERA) does have some poor numbers against the other Florida team, but we're talking one start only (5.0 innings, 12.60 ERA) and he's matured since then and has been strong recently as well; Shields is limiting opponents to three runs and nine hits over 17 innings in his previous two outings.
So I expect a strong outing from him tonight, despite the fact the Marlins have been hitting the ball in recent games (the Fish are batting .277 in their last five games with nine homers and 19 extra-base hits), I would expect the trend to end tonight against Shields who has been quite confident on the mound this year.
On the other side, there's a pitcher you can't make a case against either.
Sergio Mitre (1-2, 2.18) will try to win consecutive starts for the first time since June 8-14, 2005, and has pitched well in his last two outings, posting a 1.15 ERA. He's been very dominant so far but still went only 1-2, meaning there's something wrong with the run support his team provides (or doesn't provide) for him.
Since Florida already won the series, I expect less urgency from them tonight, they have a couple of banged up guys and could rest a few, and even though they would like to sweep their state rivals, I'm thinking it will be hard to do against Shields.
I'm well aware that playing under against shaky Tampa bullpen is a gamble, but I'm also convinced the downside for this bet (meaning D-Rays shaky pen) is already carved into the line. Some other factors however, may not be.
So I expect 6 or 7 strong innings by Shields and Mitre to limit frustrated Devil Rays offense, which managed only 6 runs in the last 2 games, as opposed to Marlins' 15.
Side wise, I'd expect the Rays to win, hopefully something like a 3-1 game would do the trick.
That's probably it for tonight, perhaps I'll promote some of my leans to plays later on.
Leans (in order of confidence):
Mets (Maine)
Angels (Escobar) (RL)
Diamondbacks (Johnson)
San Diego (Germano)
Good luck guys. :cheers: :shake:
