MLB Sunday 6/19

[Wiretowire]

YTD +4080
6-0 last - And to my bookies "Yippie Kie Ya Motherfucker."

All x50 each overs -140 unders -130

Phil ML -160 - Don't like Eflin's last but he's better than the new kid who really got slammed in his debut.
Pitt +2 1/2 -150 - Cobb has been up and down but Keller is solid as a rock. Pitt could catch the Giants cold and win this outright.
STL/Bost under 10 - Both starters solid and I have never said that about Pivetta over the years but he has pitched well this year. Try to slip this one home under.
TB ML -120 - I get the low odds because TB is on the road but I can't understand why they still aren't favored by at least -160 when you look at Lyles stats. He has not been good all year and Kluber pretty solid all year.
NYY ML -120 - Sweet road favorite odds here. Add in Severino has been solid and Kikuchi beaten up his last 3 starts and this one looks pretty good with low risk.
SD/Colo under 12 - Starters too good to be looking at a 11 1/2 total. Should sneak under.
KC/Oak over 7 - Where are they getting this low total with these two starters? Sails over.
Minn ML -120 - Archer does everything you ask him to. Kelley beat up in last and almost always pretty generous regardless.
CHW/Hou over 7 - Not crazy about this one but looking at the trend lines it calls for an over here.

GL

 

[inZane]

The legend continues...

You got some great odds with TB and the Yanks yesterday.

Good luck today Wire!

:cheers3:

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks Inzane. I appreciate the kind words. Luckily I didn't need any odds on the yanks as they won handily outright. GL

 

[Wiretowire]

I had assumed when I made the bet last week that Gonsolin would be going in the finale to close out Cle. Instead, it appears Heaney is going today. Now Heaney is decent, but this is his first start back from injury and I don't like the fact that a solid easy series win now turns into a question. Not much I can do about it but I am now not certain LA will win the series against fucking Cle. GL

 

[chipnotized]

I had assumed when I made the bet last week that Gonsolin would be going in the finale to close out Cle. Instead, it appears Heaney is going today. Now Heaney is decent, but this is his first start back from injury and I don't like the fact that a solid easy series win now turns into a question. Not much I can do about it but I am now not certain LA will win the series against fucking Cle. GL

I saw the Dodgers at only -160 this morning and choked on the gruesome concoction the kids had made me for fathers day breakfast. I've got the series wager closing out a couple open parlays, so I'll be sweating it with ya.

The Indians aren't rolling into Chavez ravine and winning 2 of 3 are they?

 

[cashflowmatters]

Keep up the great work!! I am sure Blood is sipping a bourbon and enjoying your success from above

 

[inZane]

Another question Wire please.

Do you figure a pitcher's record vs a particular team when capping?

Or is that just an obscure stat?

 

[KJ]

Like Philly for sure, Eflin is solid, can't put much weight into one poor last outing, MLB pitchers tend to right the wrong next go round

If Kelly can get the walks under control he's probably the 2nd best pitcher for the Snakes behind Gallen. Big if though when control is the issue, crazy that a 1.35 whip is considered poor but it applies to him right now.

GL today!

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks Chip. I tried to find some way to hedge from Cle ML to Cle +1 1/2 and none of them seemed worth it. We will just have to hope Bieber, who is no slouch, has an off day or the LA bats explode. GL

Thanks Cash. I do miss the old bastard. GL

Thanks KJ. Good stuff. GL

Thanks Inzane. I don't ever consider a pitchers career record against a team. That makes no sense to me how he did last year or 5 years ago is nonsense. The only thing that is important to me is how that pitcher has done this year so far against a team. If a pitcher has faced the team this year those stats are very important in my capping. I rely most heavily on how a pitcher has done in his last 3 games. What they have done early in the season only factors a little bit but not much to me unless they have been solid or bad constantly all year. I look at it all but the last 3 starts are critical to me. And if a pitcher is very solid of late and has been hit this year by the team he faces I will often pass the game. Even if he hasn't been scored on in his last 3 starts.

Looking at where they played those previous games is important as well. If he was hit on the road and he's home today I might pull the trigger or if the reverse is true he was at home now on the road (and shows he is more successful on the road or at home) but 90% of the time if the pitcher was hit by this team earlier in the year I will pass. All this of course under the condition that I have capped him to win today then I pass. I will of course hold it against him and bet the other way if he caps as the loser today. Those things are important in my capping and is why sometimes you will see me say "He beat them twice this year already." Hope that makes sense. GL

 

[Wiretowire]

By the way I am always pleased to answer any question anyone may have. My capping is not a secret and if I can share some things that help others beat the books I am always more than happy to do that. Just always check the next days thread for answers because I don't always get back to the days thread. But I always check yesterday the next day before I post to see if I missed something. GL

 

[inZane]

Thanks Chip. I tried to find some way to hedge from Cle ML to Cle +1 1/2 and none of them seemed worth it. We will just have to hope Bieber, who is no slouch, has an off day or the LA bats explode. GL

Thanks Cash. I do miss the old bastard. GL

Thanks KJ. Good stuff. GL

Thanks Inzane. I don't ever consider a pitchers career record against a team. That makes no sense to me how he did last year or 5 years ago is nonsense. The only thing that is important to me is how that pitcher has done this year so far against a team. If a pitcher has faced the team this year those stats are very important in my capping. I rely most heavily on how a pitcher has done in his last 3 games. What they have done early in the season only factors a little bit but not much to me unless they have been solid or bad constantly all year. I look at it all but the last 3 starts are critical to me. And if a pitcher is very solid of late and has been hit this year by the team he faces I will often pass the game. Even if he hasn't been scored on in his last 3 starts.

Looking at where they played those previous games is important as well. If he was hit on the road and he's home today I might pull the trigger or if the reverse is true he was at home now on the road (and shows he is more successful on the road or at home) but 90% of the time if the pitcher was hit by this team earlier in the year I will pass. All this of course under the condition that I have capped him to win today then I pass. I will of course hold it against him and bet the other way if he caps as the loser today. Those things are important in my capping and is why sometimes you will see me say "He beat them twice this year already." Hope that makes sense. GL

Thanks for the reply, is there a site you use that lists a pitcher's last three games?

 

[Wiretowire]

I will probably be banned from here for saying this but I have used Covers MLB (www.covers.com/Sports/mlb/Matchups) for the last 20 years for capping info. Click on the pitcher name in the matchup section and they will list all starts and/or reliefs for the year. GL

And of course when I just checked it for the address the site was down. Probably a CTG mod did that. :rofl:

 

[KJ]

Can just go to baseball reference and click on the game logs

MLB Stats, Scores, History, & Records | Baseball-Reference.com

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks KJ. I just looked at that and it has really good info. I am just used to Covers because they break down each start this year. Couldn't find it at your site but I'm sure it's there. It's what we are used to using is always the best for us.

I almost said "I really like Covers" but then I would have been banned for sure like the last time I said that and I had to beg and pay Tim to let me back on. GL

 

[inZane]

I will probably be banned from here for saying this but I have used Covers MLB (www.covers.com/Sports/mlb/Matchups) for the last 20 years for capping info. Click on the pitcher name in the matchup section and they will list all starts and/or reliefs for the year. GL

And of course when I just checked it for the address the site was down. Probably a CTG mod did that. :rofl:

Thanks, and actually I've been using them as well. But just reading the preview link for each game. I'll have to check out that pitcher info when it comes back up.

Bol today.

 

[Wiretowire]

Careful with the preview link as it is from the "Covers experts" and they are not experts. Many years ago I took a challenge from a couple of those so called experts when I was a mod for Covers. Let's just say the outcome wasn't pretty and they for some reason never challenged me again. They tend to go with names like LA or the Yankees will win every game. Cap it yourself. I can cap a game for you later this week and show you start to finish how I look at a game if you want. GL