GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
SEASON: 46-34, +22.336 Units
YESTERDAY: 4-3, +1.775 Units
Sunday brings an interesting card and brings to focus an angle I have often been asked about; the "avoid the sweep angle ("ATSA")." While the ATSA is an important angle to handicap and give major weight to, it is not dispositive or automatic all by itself. Here are some of my general thoughts on Sunday's ATSA games:
ATL-WASH - One would think the Nats will go "all in" on a game like this as what could be more deflating to your confidence than being bitch slapped at home early on by the only real team in the division who will probably have a shot to contend with you come September. However, this line is RIDICULOUS, and if it weren't for the ATSA, I'd probably be playing the Braves and am still considering it. Paul Maholm is an under the radar pitcher but one I am very high on. He is crafty and just flat out knows how to pitch. Earlier in his career, he was known as having huge righty/lefty splits but thanks in part to relying more now on his slider, those splits are not that apparent anymore. In addition, he is a ground ball pitcher who can work out of trouble. The Braves are 13-6 in his starts since acquiring him and in two starts this season, he has yet to allow a run in 13 innings allowing just 7 hits and has a 13:4 K:BB ratio. Gio Gonzalez is also off to a solid start allowing just 1 run and 6 hits in 11 innings with a 7:2 K:BB ration but he has failed to make it to the 7th inning so far, which means we are bound to see at least 3 innings from a struggling Nats' bullpen. As a -154 favorite overnight, this line is insane and the ATSA angle alone does not justify such a price. Probably a no play with a strong lean to the Braves.
CIN-PITT - Phillip Irwin makes his major league debut for the Bucs 5 games removed from Double A. He does not have overpowering stuff and is more of a control/command type pitcher. He struggled in spring training throwing 10.3 innings and allowing 12 hits, 9 runs (6.97 ERA) with a 9:4 K:BB ratio. The Pirates are hitting a major league worst .175 as a team this year with just 3 HRs. Matt Latos is off to a solid start with two quality starts and a 2.84 ERA and a 13:2 K:BB ratio. He was victimized last outing by two dropped fly balls by Shin-Soo Choo. Latos has outstanding numbers against Pittsburgh hitters who are a combined 16 for 89 off him (.180). The Reds have now dropped 4 in a row and this really is a big game for them. Brandon Phillips missed Saturday's game due to a family emergency so may not be available but I will still take a long look at the Reds knowing they also have a bullpen advantage particularly at the closer spot where Grilli has thrown 42 pitches the L2 days and Chapman hasn't pitched in a week.
MILW-STL - I want no part of Milwaukee in this situation. They have scored 3 runs or less in 6 of their 10 games and have scored a total of 3 runs in their L3 games and have been shutout the first two games of this series. Their bullpen is a mess, they aren't healthy, Estrada is inconsistent and Cards' hitters are a combined 22 for 66 off him (.333). Throw in the Cards have 3 consecutive shutouts and allowed 1 run in 4 games and Garcia has 2 consecutive QS and comes in off a 10 strike out performance all leads to the Cards or nobody.
COL- SD - SD has lost 5 straight to the Rox this season and have been outscored 36-16 in those games. Clayton Richard was beaten like an unwanted stepchild in his first start and was in jams almost every inning of his 2nd start. He has an earl 8.68 ERA, has allowed 4 HRs and has a 4:5 K:BB ratio, Rox hitters are a combined 47 for 133 off him (.353) and enough said. De La Rosa has been far from outstanding but the Rox lineup is so much better than the Padres which is magnified by the absence of their best hitter, Headley. Rox or nobody.
CHISOX/CLEVE - Peavy was better than it looks in his last as he had to battle through a hot day (81 degrees) against a powerful Nats' lineup and only allowed 2 runs until he wore out in the 6th. He has had great success against Cleveland hitters, who are a combined 21 for 120 against him for a .175 average. Brett Myers is trying to go back from being a set up man and closer to starter and was destroyed this spring to the tune of 21 IP, 36 hits and 23 runs (9.00 ERA) and he has been even worse in the his first two appearances throwing 10.3 innings and allowing 18 hits, 14 runs (12.19 ERA), an alarming 7 HRs and has struck out just 2. This just looks like a great spot for a desperate team. My man Daniel J. Reebok in chirp-chirp land has informed me that Brett Myers has never won his next start after allowing 5+ earned runs the last six years and his team is a combined 0-23 in such situations.
TOR/KC - Looks like a good spot for KC. Santana has more zip on his fastball and looks rejuvenated now with the Royals with a 3.21 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and a 15:2 K:BB ratio in his first two starts. Toronto hitters are a combined 26 for 141 off him for a .184 average. Brandon Morrow was roughed up on the road last outing by the Tigers allowing 9 hits and 5 runs in 3.7 innings, struggled in the spring with a 6.14 ERA and I don't expect him to hit his best stride for a bit longer. I had a feeling Dickey would improve on Saturday and I think the loss of Reyes hits them a lot worse the 2nd game without him. I am still high on this KC team, still believe in their bullpen despite Holland's early woes, like their lineup, and feel they have an equal lineup right now and the better pitching today. Strong lean to KC.
METS/MINN - Let's not forget that these are still the Mets and are not as good as the last few days. They met Vance Worley who they always seem to destroy and Harvey has been absolutely awesome this season. He and Justin Masterson win the first two week Cy Young awards. I don't see the Mets lineup being any better than the Twins. Dillon Gee was throwing batting practice in his last start allowing 10 hits, 7 runs and 3 HRs in just 3 innings at Philly and it is clear, he is not close to being who he was early last season as he recovers from the surgery to remove the blood clot in his throwing shoulder. He has struggled on the road before and I don't expect a QS on Sunday. Meanwhile, Kevin Correia overwhelms nobody but has managed two consecutive QS and in 14 innings has allowed 5 runs (3.14 ERA) and just two walks despite only striking out 3. He has typically been a good early season pitcher. The last 3 Aprils he is 9-4 with a 3.08 ERA and he somehow keeps his team in games. I see no reason why the Mets are favored here and I am strongly leaning to the Twins. [POSTPONED - WAS GOING TO BE ONE OF MY BIGGER PLAYS OF THE SEASON - ARGH!!!!!]
CINCY -1.5 RUNS (EVEN) (1.5 UNITS)
KANSAS CITY -110 (1.5 UNITS)
WHITE SOX -121 (1.25 UNITS)
CUBS -102 (1.25 UNITS)
DETROIT -118 (1.25 UNITS)
BALTIMORE 1st 5 INNS + 103 (1.2 UNITS)
YESTERDAY: 4-3, +1.775 Units
Sunday brings an interesting card and brings to focus an angle I have often been asked about; the "avoid the sweep angle ("ATSA")." While the ATSA is an important angle to handicap and give major weight to, it is not dispositive or automatic all by itself. Here are some of my general thoughts on Sunday's ATSA games:
ATL-WASH - One would think the Nats will go "all in" on a game like this as what could be more deflating to your confidence than being bitch slapped at home early on by the only real team in the division who will probably have a shot to contend with you come September. However, this line is RIDICULOUS, and if it weren't for the ATSA, I'd probably be playing the Braves and am still considering it. Paul Maholm is an under the radar pitcher but one I am very high on. He is crafty and just flat out knows how to pitch. Earlier in his career, he was known as having huge righty/lefty splits but thanks in part to relying more now on his slider, those splits are not that apparent anymore. In addition, he is a ground ball pitcher who can work out of trouble. The Braves are 13-6 in his starts since acquiring him and in two starts this season, he has yet to allow a run in 13 innings allowing just 7 hits and has a 13:4 K:BB ratio. Gio Gonzalez is also off to a solid start allowing just 1 run and 6 hits in 11 innings with a 7:2 K:BB ration but he has failed to make it to the 7th inning so far, which means we are bound to see at least 3 innings from a struggling Nats' bullpen. As a -154 favorite overnight, this line is insane and the ATSA angle alone does not justify such a price. Probably a no play with a strong lean to the Braves.
CIN-PITT - Phillip Irwin makes his major league debut for the Bucs 5 games removed from Double A. He does not have overpowering stuff and is more of a control/command type pitcher. He struggled in spring training throwing 10.3 innings and allowing 12 hits, 9 runs (6.97 ERA) with a 9:4 K:BB ratio. The Pirates are hitting a major league worst .175 as a team this year with just 3 HRs. Matt Latos is off to a solid start with two quality starts and a 2.84 ERA and a 13:2 K:BB ratio. He was victimized last outing by two dropped fly balls by Shin-Soo Choo. Latos has outstanding numbers against Pittsburgh hitters who are a combined 16 for 89 off him (.180). The Reds have now dropped 4 in a row and this really is a big game for them. Brandon Phillips missed Saturday's game due to a family emergency so may not be available but I will still take a long look at the Reds knowing they also have a bullpen advantage particularly at the closer spot where Grilli has thrown 42 pitches the L2 days and Chapman hasn't pitched in a week.
MILW-STL - I want no part of Milwaukee in this situation. They have scored 3 runs or less in 6 of their 10 games and have scored a total of 3 runs in their L3 games and have been shutout the first two games of this series. Their bullpen is a mess, they aren't healthy, Estrada is inconsistent and Cards' hitters are a combined 22 for 66 off him (.333). Throw in the Cards have 3 consecutive shutouts and allowed 1 run in 4 games and Garcia has 2 consecutive QS and comes in off a 10 strike out performance all leads to the Cards or nobody.
COL- SD - SD has lost 5 straight to the Rox this season and have been outscored 36-16 in those games. Clayton Richard was beaten like an unwanted stepchild in his first start and was in jams almost every inning of his 2nd start. He has an earl 8.68 ERA, has allowed 4 HRs and has a 4:5 K:BB ratio, Rox hitters are a combined 47 for 133 off him (.353) and enough said. De La Rosa has been far from outstanding but the Rox lineup is so much better than the Padres which is magnified by the absence of their best hitter, Headley. Rox or nobody.
CHISOX/CLEVE - Peavy was better than it looks in his last as he had to battle through a hot day (81 degrees) against a powerful Nats' lineup and only allowed 2 runs until he wore out in the 6th. He has had great success against Cleveland hitters, who are a combined 21 for 120 against him for a .175 average. Brett Myers is trying to go back from being a set up man and closer to starter and was destroyed this spring to the tune of 21 IP, 36 hits and 23 runs (9.00 ERA) and he has been even worse in the his first two appearances throwing 10.3 innings and allowing 18 hits, 14 runs (12.19 ERA), an alarming 7 HRs and has struck out just 2. This just looks like a great spot for a desperate team. My man Daniel J. Reebok in chirp-chirp land has informed me that Brett Myers has never won his next start after allowing 5+ earned runs the last six years and his team is a combined 0-23 in such situations.
TOR/KC - Looks like a good spot for KC. Santana has more zip on his fastball and looks rejuvenated now with the Royals with a 3.21 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and a 15:2 K:BB ratio in his first two starts. Toronto hitters are a combined 26 for 141 off him for a .184 average. Brandon Morrow was roughed up on the road last outing by the Tigers allowing 9 hits and 5 runs in 3.7 innings, struggled in the spring with a 6.14 ERA and I don't expect him to hit his best stride for a bit longer. I had a feeling Dickey would improve on Saturday and I think the loss of Reyes hits them a lot worse the 2nd game without him. I am still high on this KC team, still believe in their bullpen despite Holland's early woes, like their lineup, and feel they have an equal lineup right now and the better pitching today. Strong lean to KC.
METS/MINN - Let's not forget that these are still the Mets and are not as good as the last few days. They met Vance Worley who they always seem to destroy and Harvey has been absolutely awesome this season. He and Justin Masterson win the first two week Cy Young awards. I don't see the Mets lineup being any better than the Twins. Dillon Gee was throwing batting practice in his last start allowing 10 hits, 7 runs and 3 HRs in just 3 innings at Philly and it is clear, he is not close to being who he was early last season as he recovers from the surgery to remove the blood clot in his throwing shoulder. He has struggled on the road before and I don't expect a QS on Sunday. Meanwhile, Kevin Correia overwhelms nobody but has managed two consecutive QS and in 14 innings has allowed 5 runs (3.14 ERA) and just two walks despite only striking out 3. He has typically been a good early season pitcher. The last 3 Aprils he is 9-4 with a 3.08 ERA and he somehow keeps his team in games. I see no reason why the Mets are favored here and I am strongly leaning to the Twins. [POSTPONED - WAS GOING TO BE ONE OF MY BIGGER PLAYS OF THE SEASON - ARGH!!!!!]
CINCY -1.5 RUNS (EVEN) (1.5 UNITS)
KANSAS CITY -110 (1.5 UNITS)
WHITE SOX -121 (1.25 UNITS)
CUBS -102 (1.25 UNITS)
DETROIT -118 (1.25 UNITS)
BALTIMORE 1st 5 INNS + 103 (1.2 UNITS)
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