GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
Well it's opening day and like many I am excited about this upcoming baseball season. I look forward to seeing some familiar faces and sharp baseball minds here at CTG and most of all I am excited about the daily baseball discussion thread and daily umpire thread.
Also, let's not forget Happy Easter and Happy Passover to everyone!
ASTROS +145 (0.75 Units)
ASTROS 1ST 5 INNS +140 (0.75 Units)
Talk about playing with fire opening game, when investing in the Astros you take your life into your own hands. However, I do think there is some value here. If there is ever going to be an electric environment at Minute Maid, one would think it would be tonight for the Astros initial game in the American League and against in-state rival Texas. Now I don't expect huge things out of the Astros this season, but forgive me for saying this, I was somewhat impressed with them in Spring Training who ended up 16-17. Offensively, they were one of the most potent hitting teams in Spring Training hitting 47 spring home runs and they had some hot bats including Rick Ankiel, Jose Altuve, Brandon Laird and Juan Castro, all who hit .339 or better and I don't expect their offense to be as pathetic as some expect. The one thing the young Astros are most susceptible to is a power strikeout pitcher, but in Matt Harrison, they face a pitcher who is far from a power pitcher. In 213 innings last year Harrison posted just 133 K's and while his overall numbers were very solid, his actual numbers significantly outperformed his peripheral numbers. In addition, Harrison struggled this spring. Harrison struggled a bit against righties last year and the Astros will march out a right handed heavy lineup. Bud Norris is a solid MLB pitcher and if he wasn't stuck in Houston and played for a contender, he would actually stand out a lot more. He's a power pitcher, who while relying a bit too heavily on his slider, strikes out about a guy an inning and get out of jams. In the L3 seasons Norris has been a way better pitcher at home going 13-12 with a 3.37 ERA opposed to his 9-22 road record with a 5.49 ERA. In fact, last season, Norris was 4-1 at home with a 1.71 ERA opposed to being 3-12 with a 6.94 ERA on the road. That may be the biggest home/road split I have seen in years with a 5+ run per game differential. In addition, as bad as the Astros have been the last several years, in Norris' first 4 starts of the year the L4 years. the Astros are 10-6 overall. I actually give the Astros a very slight edge in pitching based upon Norris' success at home and as such, I don't see the Rangers commanding such a high price to begin the season, particularly with the Astros' bats so alive this spring.
Footnote: For record keeping purposes, when I play the F5 innings and same full game together, if they have the same result (WW or LL) I count it as 1-0 or 0-1 in my overall record since they are correlated but obviously count the unit results in full; and obviously the only thing that really counts overall is units won/lost.
Also, let's not forget Happy Easter and Happy Passover to everyone!
ASTROS +145 (0.75 Units)
ASTROS 1ST 5 INNS +140 (0.75 Units)
Talk about playing with fire opening game, when investing in the Astros you take your life into your own hands. However, I do think there is some value here. If there is ever going to be an electric environment at Minute Maid, one would think it would be tonight for the Astros initial game in the American League and against in-state rival Texas. Now I don't expect huge things out of the Astros this season, but forgive me for saying this, I was somewhat impressed with them in Spring Training who ended up 16-17. Offensively, they were one of the most potent hitting teams in Spring Training hitting 47 spring home runs and they had some hot bats including Rick Ankiel, Jose Altuve, Brandon Laird and Juan Castro, all who hit .339 or better and I don't expect their offense to be as pathetic as some expect. The one thing the young Astros are most susceptible to is a power strikeout pitcher, but in Matt Harrison, they face a pitcher who is far from a power pitcher. In 213 innings last year Harrison posted just 133 K's and while his overall numbers were very solid, his actual numbers significantly outperformed his peripheral numbers. In addition, Harrison struggled this spring. Harrison struggled a bit against righties last year and the Astros will march out a right handed heavy lineup. Bud Norris is a solid MLB pitcher and if he wasn't stuck in Houston and played for a contender, he would actually stand out a lot more. He's a power pitcher, who while relying a bit too heavily on his slider, strikes out about a guy an inning and get out of jams. In the L3 seasons Norris has been a way better pitcher at home going 13-12 with a 3.37 ERA opposed to his 9-22 road record with a 5.49 ERA. In fact, last season, Norris was 4-1 at home with a 1.71 ERA opposed to being 3-12 with a 6.94 ERA on the road. That may be the biggest home/road split I have seen in years with a 5+ run per game differential. In addition, as bad as the Astros have been the last several years, in Norris' first 4 starts of the year the L4 years. the Astros are 10-6 overall. I actually give the Astros a very slight edge in pitching based upon Norris' success at home and as such, I don't see the Rangers commanding such a high price to begin the season, particularly with the Astros' bats so alive this spring.
Footnote: For record keeping purposes, when I play the F5 innings and same full game together, if they have the same result (WW or LL) I count it as 1-0 or 0-1 in my overall record since they are correlated but obviously count the unit results in full; and obviously the only thing that really counts overall is units won/lost.
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