MLB Schedule Winners and Losers
MLB Schedule Winners and Losers
MLB Schedule Released
Typically, each team plays 162 games. Of the 162 games, 19 are played against each divisional opponent. Six or seven games are played against each remaining team in the league.
The rest of the schedule consists in games against each team from a division in the other league plus four additional games against a team in that same league.
This year, things will work differently because the schedule has been reduced to 60 games.
Of the 60 games, 40 will come against teams in one’s own division.
The remaining 20 games will be interleague games against teams in the corresponding division.
For example, AL Central teams will play 20 games against NL Central teams. AL West teams will play 20 games against NL West teams and so forth.
Normally, the gap between the team with the hardest strength of schedule and the team with the lowest is not too stark.
But this year, the gap is drastic.
Last year, the Marlins had the toughest opposing schedule with their opponents carrying a .510 winning percentage while the Twins and Indians had the easiest schedules with their opponents generating a .482 win percentage.
This year, the Angels have the toughest schedule because their opponents had a .534 win percentage. Meanwhile, the Twins' opponents mustered a .449 win percentage.
So, based off of win percentage, the gap between the hardest and easiest schedules is .57 higher in 2020 than in 2019.
Still, our work is not done yet because a lot changes from year to year.
Top Winner:
Cincinnati Reds
Instead of dealing with the likes of the Yankees, Braves, and Dodgers — as was originally planned — they will face NL Central and AL Central teams.
With a total of 10 games coming against the Royals and Tigers, plus 10 more against the Pirates, the Reds will play 20 games — a third of their season — against teams that combined for a .360 win percentage last year.
Going further, I think that the White Sox are obnoxiously overrated. Granted, Chicago is teeming with hyped-up youngsters.
But what is hype on paper is, in reality, unsubstantiated talent that will require time to develop. Time, though, is missing in a shortened season.
The lineup had a bevy of problems, including terrible plate discipline.
This flaw is evident in, among others, the overrated Tim Anderson, whose meteoric rise in BA largely derives from a well above-average BABIP (batting average of balls in play), which basically means that he was fairly lucky.
Moreover, signing a has-been in Dallas Keuchel, who mustered a 4.72 FIP last year, will not resuscitate a pitching staff consisting in unreliable arms outside of Lucas Giolito.
In contrast, Cincinnati boasts a solid rotation with the budding Luis Castillo, who produced a 3.40 ERA, Sonny Gray, who blossomed in Cincy with a 2.87 ERA, and a repeatedly proven crop of veterans.
Pitching will be more important in this shortened season because lineups won’t get to see same pitcher over and over again.
Cincy's lineup will also be stronger with additions like Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos, who already justified optimism in February Spring training.
Top Loser:
Boston Red Sox
In a normal season, Boston would have gotten to pad its win total against teams in the AL Central.
Instead, Boston bypasses baseball’s weakest division. A greater proportion of its games will come against their AL East rivals Yankees and the redoubtable Rays and against the NL East, which could be the NL’s top division.
On two different occasions, the Red Sox will face the Yankees and Rays back-to-back, which is a scenario that witnessed Boston’s worst play of the season in 2019.
Put differently, nearly half of the Red Sox’s games will come against playoff teams — 10 against the Rays, 10 against the Yankees, and a total of nine against the Braves and Nationals.
Philadelphia, New York Mets, and Toronto will not be no-doubters, not against this year’s Boston team.
Without Chris Sale, who is out with Tommy John surgery, the Red Sox lack any reliable arms outside of Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi.
It may even be a stretch to call either pitcher reliable as both have a career ERA over 4.00.
Boston’s bullpen grew notorious for blowing leads. The team blew the third-highest percentage of saves.
Brandon Workman, who came out of nowhere to earn, eventually, the team's closer spot, blew six saves in 22 opportunities.
Hitting-wise, Boston will especially miss reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts.
The Verdict
After facing the Pirates, Royals, and Tigers 20 times, the Reds don’t have much work left to go over the win total of 31.5 games at Bovada.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox stand to be great losers from this year’s schedule. Unlike the Reds, their pitching will hurt them. I will bet that they stay under the win total of 31.5 games at Bovada.
Best Bet: Reds Over 31.5 Games (-120) & Red Sox Under 31.5 Games (-115) at Bovada
MLB Schedule Winners and Losers
MLB Schedule Released
Typically, each team plays 162 games. Of the 162 games, 19 are played against each divisional opponent. Six or seven games are played against each remaining team in the league.
The rest of the schedule consists in games against each team from a division in the other league plus four additional games against a team in that same league.
This year, things will work differently because the schedule has been reduced to 60 games.
Of the 60 games, 40 will come against teams in one’s own division.
The remaining 20 games will be interleague games against teams in the corresponding division.
For example, AL Central teams will play 20 games against NL Central teams. AL West teams will play 20 games against NL West teams and so forth.
Normally, the gap between the team with the hardest strength of schedule and the team with the lowest is not too stark.
But this year, the gap is drastic.
Last year, the Marlins had the toughest opposing schedule with their opponents carrying a .510 winning percentage while the Twins and Indians had the easiest schedules with their opponents generating a .482 win percentage.
This year, the Angels have the toughest schedule because their opponents had a .534 win percentage. Meanwhile, the Twins' opponents mustered a .449 win percentage.
So, based off of win percentage, the gap between the hardest and easiest schedules is .57 higher in 2020 than in 2019.
Still, our work is not done yet because a lot changes from year to year.
Top Winner:
Cincinnati Reds
Instead of dealing with the likes of the Yankees, Braves, and Dodgers — as was originally planned — they will face NL Central and AL Central teams.
With a total of 10 games coming against the Royals and Tigers, plus 10 more against the Pirates, the Reds will play 20 games — a third of their season — against teams that combined for a .360 win percentage last year.
Going further, I think that the White Sox are obnoxiously overrated. Granted, Chicago is teeming with hyped-up youngsters.
But what is hype on paper is, in reality, unsubstantiated talent that will require time to develop. Time, though, is missing in a shortened season.
The lineup had a bevy of problems, including terrible plate discipline.
This flaw is evident in, among others, the overrated Tim Anderson, whose meteoric rise in BA largely derives from a well above-average BABIP (batting average of balls in play), which basically means that he was fairly lucky.
Moreover, signing a has-been in Dallas Keuchel, who mustered a 4.72 FIP last year, will not resuscitate a pitching staff consisting in unreliable arms outside of Lucas Giolito.
In contrast, Cincinnati boasts a solid rotation with the budding Luis Castillo, who produced a 3.40 ERA, Sonny Gray, who blossomed in Cincy with a 2.87 ERA, and a repeatedly proven crop of veterans.
Pitching will be more important in this shortened season because lineups won’t get to see same pitcher over and over again.
Cincy's lineup will also be stronger with additions like Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos, who already justified optimism in February Spring training.
Top Loser:
Boston Red Sox
In a normal season, Boston would have gotten to pad its win total against teams in the AL Central.
Instead, Boston bypasses baseball’s weakest division. A greater proportion of its games will come against their AL East rivals Yankees and the redoubtable Rays and against the NL East, which could be the NL’s top division.
On two different occasions, the Red Sox will face the Yankees and Rays back-to-back, which is a scenario that witnessed Boston’s worst play of the season in 2019.
Put differently, nearly half of the Red Sox’s games will come against playoff teams — 10 against the Rays, 10 against the Yankees, and a total of nine against the Braves and Nationals.
Philadelphia, New York Mets, and Toronto will not be no-doubters, not against this year’s Boston team.
Without Chris Sale, who is out with Tommy John surgery, the Red Sox lack any reliable arms outside of Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi.
It may even be a stretch to call either pitcher reliable as both have a career ERA over 4.00.
Boston’s bullpen grew notorious for blowing leads. The team blew the third-highest percentage of saves.
Brandon Workman, who came out of nowhere to earn, eventually, the team's closer spot, blew six saves in 22 opportunities.
Hitting-wise, Boston will especially miss reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts.
The Verdict
After facing the Pirates, Royals, and Tigers 20 times, the Reds don’t have much work left to go over the win total of 31.5 games at Bovada.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox stand to be great losers from this year’s schedule. Unlike the Reds, their pitching will hurt them. I will bet that they stay under the win total of 31.5 games at Bovada.
Best Bet: Reds Over 31.5 Games (-120) & Red Sox Under 31.5 Games (-115) at Bovada
