MLB Satyrday

Satyr

Paster of Muppets
Satyrdays used to be so profitable. I took last Satyrday off, and I need this one to bail me out from the worst streak I've EVER come across since I started betting in an organized frame.

Coming off another 1-3 day. Pointless in even writing long rants about it. The pointless thing is, I went 6-2 when my leans are concerned.

Just a regular note: buyer beware. I am in a losing streak, and chances are, you would make more money fading me than tailing me. The only question is, one of these days I'll break out of this funk and go on a tear again. You can't say when really.
Won't update my record yet. Too scared. lol.


Anyways, keeping it up.

Blue Jays (Marcum) ML (1.52 @ Pinnacle) 8 units

Ok Speigner had one good start, beat Santana, but this guy is still 2-2, 7.79 ERA and went 0-2 with a 14.44 ERA in his first four starts.
Slim chances he will contain a surging offense like the Blue Jays one; Toronto is 4-2 in last 6 games, averaging 6.0 RPG in the span. The Nats had their fun, they are 5-2 on their current nine-game road trip. Time to get shelled again if you ask me.
Marcum is 3-2, 3.53 ERA this year, and the team is 5-0 in his last 5 starts. Coincidentally, all those wins sans the one over Philly (13-2) have been 1 run wins. However, we're talking mostly AL teams like CWS, NYY, BAL, plus the one against the Dodgers.
The Nats are something else. And the offense is finally clicking, they've been erratic as they can be this year, but I've seen a few of their games during the run and I think they might be ready to leapfrog over the .500 and stay there, finally.


Athletics (Di Nardo) RL (2.26 @ Pinnacle) 5 units

Going on the A's again, RL is tempting, unlike the Jays' RL price. They broke out last night and tore the Cards apart. Perhaps they don't have to score 14 tonight (hard to expect they will) but I do think they can score at least 5. We're talking a depleted pitching rotation and a worn out pen that even had to feature Scott Spiezio last night. Todd Wellemeyer is 2-1, 7.18 ERA, he did beat the Angels last time out but the A's are something else at the moment, these guys are hitting the ball, and their pitching has been outstanding.
Lenny Di Nardo (2-2, 1.22 ERA) was doubted when he was promoted to a starter, but this guy has shown nothing but consistency, allowing only one earned run and 10 hits in three starts, spanning 17 1-3 innings.
We've seen the A's win their games in all possible ways, 1:0, 3:2 in extra innings, or scoring 14 like last night, these guys are hot and I don't see them stopping.
The Cards are a poor interleague team, their pitching is hurting, regardless if we're talking about starting pitching or pen, and their offense, even if it's above average, cannot hold them in games against superior opposition.



I might add one or two more later on, even though it would be better if I didn't. :D.
 
forgot to add, all comments, suggestions (regarding tonight's bets or in general) are welcomed. :shake:
 
Totals have been KILLING me lately, but I'll keep going and see what happens. I don't think my perception is that faltered, even though missing every total I posted in the last few weeks can't be coincidence either. The concept of "bad luck" can't be used on such a pattern. Must be something else, and unfortunately, something worse.

Anyways.


Phillies-Tigers over 10.5 (1.99 @ Pinnacle) 4 units

Ok these two teams combined for 20 runs last night, a little more than half of that total would do the trick here. I think we have a case here. We have Moyer pitching, who is a legend, but a solid NL pitcher at best at the moment, going against a kid who will be impressed playing against the Phillies and Moyer. The veteran has excellent career numbers against Detroit, but that was back in the past, the Tigers now and Moyer now, that's a different thing.
The Tigers are hitting the ball and Phillies are first in the NL with 342 runs, they have Victorino, Utley and Rollins pounding the ball, putting runs on the board and frankly I don't see either of these two teams' pitching doing a particularly great job tonight. We all know how Tigers' pen can be shaky (at best), and Phillies one isn't that brilliant either.
6-8 would do the trick.
 
Changing Angels lean to Dodger lean. Schmidt should improve me thinks. And just because Halos lost last night, doesn't mean they win tonight. Dodgers look good if you ask me.
 
With you on Blue Jays just won't go as big due to chalk.

Also really like D-Rays and Giants. I live in Montgomery (D-Rays AA affiliate) and Sonnestine pitched the club to a AA title last year. Great stuff and will be solid MLB starter. Good size and an assortment of pitches.

Cain has pitched much better than his 2-6 record. His ERA would be top 10 in AL. Only worry is where offense will come from for Giants.
 
If my early cubs play loses, then I will be on Oakland RL and Det and/or Det over, can't decide which yet.

Anyway, I think you commented on my thoughts about Wellemeyer last night in the overnight thread. While I considered backing him last week, today there was only a chance if the line jumped up. He doesn't go deep into games, which with this staff is a huge concern as you pointed out. Spezio can't keep that 0.00 ERA up :) The RL is the only way I would go, like you have taken here. DInardo has been pitching very well, but I still think the price is a bit high with him, altho it came down from last night.

You'll get there bro, just keep plugging away. Multi unit bettors have greater ups and downs than your flat 1 unit guys like myself. Having said that, couple good days in a row and you are right back where you started. GL today.
 
Against you small with the Nationals. A few things-- both teams are 11-9 last 20. Recently Washington has been very solid after a loss 8-3 last 11. The day era is possibly large here. Marcum was even worse last year in day games with an era over 8 than this year. Still the larger part of my bet is first five and Toronto has a bad starter going tomorrow so think your winning chances are quite real just too costly for the play. GL
 
satyr, DiNardo looks as solid as could be, and your dead on about Speigner, one lucky start, period. i like the plays...gl tonite
 
Damn Satyr happy for you to get the win but very sad for that kid Speignur. Bottom of the third 2 outs 2 strikes and next update 2 runs in. Then 2 more. That could esily be the difference between a career and being a bustout for him and we are talking one pitch.
 
cpa21 nice to see a confirmation of my thoughts. I only watched Sonnanstine once, and I read a lot about him, he really seems like a great potential, and I'm thinking he will be on my tail list more often than on my tail list.
Blue Jays won, now I'm only regretting a bit for not playing the runline, as I really rarely lay this much chalk. But hey, nevermind, if this is going to be a winning night I'll take it.
I have same thoughts/worries about Cain, he was marked as one of the best pitchers in SF rotation (if not the best) but these guys just don't score for him. I have no idea why. And I'm afraid if these Red Sox are waking up, this might be a problem for the Giants.
I do think 2.90 is worth a unit or two.

Good luck tonight and thanks for the comments. :shake:

slim5150 yes, the A's are hot and Di Nardo is worth a bet definitely, he's been more than solid so far.
Anyways, thanks for the support but the thing is it doesn't matter if you're a multi unit bettor or a flat bettor when you go on a 6-17 run like I did (or something similar). Just awful streak. I hope I'll bounce back soon. Good luck. :cheers:

tuck321 I just came home, went out with my gf, so I just saw the result. GL with your other bets tonight man. :shake:


Hile nice to see you like the plays. Let's cash on these babies. :cheers: GL tonight.


reNew you know how they say...Satyrday is only once a week :D come on I need this. GL tonight bro :cheers:


Troutman good luck tonight buddy. :shake: :cheers:
 
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