MLB Satyrday

Satyr

Paster of Muppets
MLB 2007: 62 W-5V-51 L +73.1 units

1-1 last night but almost 4 units of profit as the Halos did the job.

Early play so far:

Angels (Escobar) (2.71 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
over 9 (1.86 @ Pinnacle) 5 units


I just can't miss out on this value. I'm aware we're counting on the Angels to take 2 straight games in New York but so what? The Yankees are a 21-25 team this year, and it's far from coincidence. They'll give the ball to Chien Ming Wang (3-3, 4.28 ERA) who seeks to win his third straight start for New York. He's posted a 2.03 ERA in his last two outings, and that surely deserves respect. However, that doesn't automatically imply you can set the Angels as a 2.71 dogs. They're way better than that, and frankly besides the "due theory" and "how on Earth do the Halos win 2 straight in NY", both non factors for a serious capper of course, I don't see a reason for this situation.

Let's take a look at the pitching first. Wang is on an upward spiral that's for sure, but he still might be prone to letting in a few, plus he already surrendered five runs and 13 hits over 5 1-3 innings in a 5-3 loss to Los Angeles on Aug. 13. That's an ERA of 8.44.
Angels counter with Escobar (5-2, 2.82 ERA) who isn't an ace but far from a shaky pitcher as well. The Yankees have owned him in NY (3-4 with a 6.19 ERA at Yankee Stadium in 17 career appearances) but this guy is too good to be a dog this big, especially with a batting lineup this good. The Halos will have Willits back for tonight, they have Guerrero breaking out of a week slump, and a few guys who are hitting at the moment (Cabrera, Kotchman, Napoli, Matthews...)
These guys are a top notch ballclub. And Kelvim Escobar is the real deal. I don't think one needs more to justify taking a 2.71 dog. Especially if you take into consideration that A-Rod is in a slump (even though he is hitting .385 off Escobar in 26 AB, Jeter is hitting .381 in 42 AB against Escobar).
I'm looking at this one as another slugfest. The Angels put 10 on the board last night and in normal situations we would look for an offensive letdown, but only in case of an average ballclub. When the Angels are concerned, and the versatility they have in the lineup, plus Wang actually not being the most dependable guy in the world at the moment, and have in mind if he collapses, Yanks' pen has been subpar this year, plus they used several guys last night.
I'm seeing a 7-6 Angels win.


Other picks coming within an hour or two. :cheers: GL tonight guys.
 
boom goes da bomb! :D. 3-0 Halos :wacka wacka: come on Angels. Exceed that over line by yourselves 'an_horse' 'an_horse'
 
The over is as good as done...let's hope the Halos don't screw up the win now. Come on Angels, hold it.


I'll post some plays soon, writing them up now. :shake:
 
Mariners (Baek) (1.82 @ Pinnacle) 5 units

All I keep hearing is, should Baek be favored on the road? I'm going to counter with a question of my own: should Bannister be favored anywhere? Seattle are a .500 team. And that's with their cleanup hitter boasting .180.
Yes, Baek is 1-2, 5.50 this year. But take a look on who he faced so far:
Melted down like an ice cube on a hot summer sun at Arlington (a hitters park):
@ Texas: (W 5-4)
He was actually lucky not to let in more, as he surrendered 8 hits in just 4.1 innings of work. Seattle pen did the job and sealed the W.
vs KC (W 5-1)
6.1 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER. And note he was very dominant in early innings, KC started hitting only later on. Bannister pitched for the Royals, Baek left the game after allowing a game tying run.
Solid stuff against a weak lineup (he faces them again tonight).
@NYY (W 15-11)
Yep, it was "that game". Baek pitched 3.2 innings, got completely torched: 8 hits, 7 ER. But again, Seattle pen and offense stepped up and got the W.
@Det W 9-2
Probably a start of his career, a complete game, 6 hits, 2 ER. At Comerica against a hot Tiger offense.
vs LAA L 0-5
Pitched 6.1 innings, gave up 6 hits, 3 ER.
@Cle L 2-5
6.1 IP, 8 hits, 5 ER.


Ok, so Seattle are 4-2 when Baek pitches. They really stepped up with him on the mound in first 4 games. But more importantly, look at the teams he faced.
Texas at Arlington, KC at home, Yankees, Detroit, Cleveland: ALL AWAY, and Angels at home. Name me ONE pitcher that had a tougher task.
So you have to look at these numbers with a bit of reserve. The guy faced AL's best, league's best. First time he faces a weak team (coincidentally it was KC), he gave up 4 hits in 6 innings, resulting in only 1 earned run.
All I need from Baek tonight is not to fall apart. In that case, I would be worried. But give me a solid 6 inning effort with 4 hits and 2 ER and I'll take Seattle pen (even if they are a bit worn out) and bats against the Royals any day of the week.
Bannister is 0-2, 4.39 ERA in the season, and I'm not sure how good or bad he really is, I don't think anyone can be, he's been on and off, one thing is certain: Mariner bats are HOT in their last couple of games. Kansas City, meanwhile, has allowed 27 runs and 41 hits in its last three games.
I know some could argue that I'm taking a bad line, getting ripped or something, but the way I see this game, the line is accurately set, and Baek's numbers are misleading. Add to the pot that Seattle pen is superior to most in the AL let alone KC, and that Ichiro and co. love playing in Kansas.


Have my eye on a few more so stay tuned. :cheers:
 
i like cws by 2... jackson is just bad.. what do u thin.. also took the jays to win..

This is one play I have my eye on, I probably will take the Sox just have to check some numbers. Even though CWS and their meltdowns have cost me this year, but you're right, this Jackson guy is awful.
 
ya i no what u mean.. the bullpen is starting the to let them down...
i was looking at baek too..and i dont believe he is as bad as his record.. i like it... hey just out of curiosity... me and my friend have a little friendly wager... i know u had liverpool to win champions leauge... at over+2300 did u by anychance hedge a little?
 
not one bit buddy. the reason is, I only had 1 unit on it. And Milan to win was lousy in the final (1.60) so I would've messed up my value. I know it's free money but I didn't want to jinx anything ;)

Plus I really didn't see any value in it. 10 units on Milan to win would bring me profit of either 6 units (in case Milan wins) or 12 units if Liverpool win. Compared to 22 units payout it doesn't look so well, you'll agree. :D.

However, I would hedge it if for example my other bet (Manchester United to win CL @ 9.40, 10 units) were in the final. That would have been a different story.

84 units payout. I would HAVE to hedge it. But this, naah.

:shake:
 
White Sox (Vasquez) (RL) (1.98 @ Pinnacle) 6 units

What's happening with Vasquez? He used to be a dependable pitcher, and now he's only 2-2, 4.21 ERA. Vasquez is winless in four starts in May, going 0-2 with a 4.61 ERA. The White Sox have lost all four of those games, after winning Vazquez's first four outings. Vazquez is 3-1 with a 4.89 ERA in seven career starts against Tampa Bay. I'm thinking he should rebound here, and the offense should take care of Edwin Jackson (0-6, 7.78), who could be out of the starting rotation soon if he doesn't improve. Jackson has thrown two bullpen sessions since his latest loss -- 8-4 to Florida last Friday -- in which he was ripped for seven runs over 2 2-3 innings. Opposition is hitting .308 off Jackson. Even though Crede is in a slump, and Konerko's numbers are on a downfall after he had a personal case (death in his family). However, the White Sox are still by far the better team and TB are notorious for not giving adequate run support to sub par pitchers and especially on the road. They do, however, step up for Shields and Kazmir mostly.
I'm not the biggest fan of going against a pitcher fighting for his major league life, but I will do it here. Vasquez has to improve his numbers and I'm thinking Jackson gets flamed.
 
Pirates (Chacon) (2.68 @ Pinnacle) 3 units

Arroyo is overrated here. He's 2-4 this year with a solid 3.41 ERA to go with it. Not only do these Reds shut down offensively in his most starts, but they're in a slump right now. So are the Pirates (both teams are 3-7 in last 10). But only one team is priced 2.68.
Cincinnati have dropped amazing 18 out of last 22 games. And that's with Griffey jr. hitting the ball (.330, 21 RBI). But he's also showing signs of cooling down, hitting .240 (3 HR) in last 25 at bats.
I'm aware the Pirates are lacking in the quality department, but these are the Reds we're talking about. Shawn Chacon (1-0, 3.48 ERA) doesn't have much to feel good about either, as he gave up three runs and three hits in two innings of relief in a 9-4 loss to St. Louis on Tuesday night. The Pirates are in a slump as well, that's why this one is a toss up.
Two fade machines colliding. Pittsburgh hitters Xavier Nady (.400 BA last 7 days, 25 AB) and 3rd baseman Jose Bautista (.304 BA last 23 AB) are leading the way but the Pirates just don't look good. However this is a value play, and a fade of Arroyo.
 
updating (after LAA game):
MLB 2007: 63 W-5V-52 L +73.23 units


small lean on Texas as well. Not sure if I'll pull the trigger or not, tricky game as Rangers' offense is entering another downtrend after a short period of actually producing...

So this might be it for me for tonight. GL tonight guys. :shake:

:cheers:money;
 
Last edited:
Vince Padilia is a horrible pitcher, you cant trust his stuff, even at home.

Yep I agree. Then you look at that shaky record Wakefield has against Texas and you think oh the over might be the play. Then you check their previous scores this year and you see both games either one of these pitchers were in ended up in an under...

tricky game. Logic says over, but gut feel says it's going to be another 3-2 game, don't have a clue who wins it though.

Good luck tonight Troutman. :cheers:
 
Just for the record, and I don't feel like opening a thread in the NBA section for one sentence (if that :D), just for the information I think Utah wins tonight. GL.
 
btw, an interesting thing occurred (so far):

Look at the scores:
FINISHED
#
LAA 3 (30-20) F
NYY 1 (21-26)
GameCenter
Glog | Recap
#
CLE 6 (30-17) F
DET 3 (29-19)
GameCenter
Glog | Recap
#
CHC 4 (22-25) F
LAD 2 (28-21)
GameCenter
Glog | Recap
#
PHI 6 (25-24) F
ATL 4 (28-21)
GameCenter
Glog | Recap


IN GAME:
#
NYM 4 (30-17) Bot.
4th
FLA 1 (23-25)
AB: Willingham
1B 2S 1O
#
SEA 4 (22-22) Bot.
4th
KC 1 (19-30)
AB: Sweeney
0B 2S 0O
#
TOR 3 (21-26) Top
5th
MIN 2 (23-24)
AB: Overbay
2B 1S 1O


#
PIT 4 (20-27) Bot.
3rd
CIN 0 (18-31)
Phillips popped out to second
#
WAS 1 (20-29) Bot.
3rd
STL 3 (19-26)
AB: Molina
1B 2S 2O
#
OAK 0 (24-23) End
2nd
BAL 3 (21-27)
Markakis grounded out
#
BOS 0 (32-15) Mid.
1st
TEX 0 (18-30)
Ortiz flied out to left




ALL visiting teams either won or in the lead, except for Baltimore (3:0 up) and St Louis (3:1 up).


Visiting teams are currently 8-2 tonight.


I'm thinking this evens itself out a bit ;)

Glad I have Snakes & Giants RL double :D.
 
Back
Top