MLB Satyrday

Satyr

Satyr

Paster of Muppets
MLB 2007: 55 W-4V-46 L +49.13 units


Sparky already wrote about this game, so don't mind if I repeat some things.

Orioles (Guthrie) (1.71 @ Pinnacle) 8 units

The Orioles are far from a top team, but not that far from a .500 AL team. Currently 2nd in AL East, the Orioles are hoping Interleague can bring some momentum. Nationals, on the other hand, are disastrous. They're rock bottom of the National League, so playing against AL teams might be too challenging for them, the O's are well covered despite a slow start into the season and they're send out one of their most talented pitchers, Jeremy Guthrie (2-1, 3.34 ERA), who has a 0.93 ERA in last 19 innings of work (13 hits). And we're talking AL opposition, teams like Boston or Tampa Bay.
On the other side, the Nats probably have the weakest pitching rotation in the majors.
The O's are hitting .286 off lefties in last 10 games, and the Nats are only .205 against righties, and we're talking NL righties.



Blue Jays (Marcum) (2.52 @ Pinnacle) 6 units

Not the biggest fan of Blue Jays offense this year, nor Shawn Marcum, but I have to pound this one as I expected near a pick 'em, believe it or not.
Marcum is 1-2, 4.43 ERA this year, but is slowly gaining form.

Marcum, in my eyes, in still prone to letdowns, but against Philly this shouldn't be such an issue. First of, the Jays are finally starting to click, they're connecting hits well, they're putting runs on the board and they're starting to resemble the team from previous seasons. Not fully, yet, but hey, that's why this isn't a 10 unit play.
Moyer (4-2, 4.48 ERA) is the reason why I'm on the fade. He's a big name, a big presence on the mound, and the price is affected by it, but he's not a NL pitcher by chance, he just doesn't have it any more for AL opposition.
The Jays are well known for hitting lefties at a nice number (.295) and current Jays lineup has excellent numbers against Moyer (Wells .333, Glaus .347, Thomas .356, Rios .429, McDonald .357, etc).
The Jays are on the climb and the Phillies are just mediocre this year, I don't see them improving their game drastically since Howard is in a huge slump following injury woes. This team is built around him (in recent seasons), and without their cleanup hitter they seem to lack a lot of that killer instinct.
On the other hand, there is just too much quality in the Jays batting lineup for them not to improve immensely over the next period.


Angels (Weaver) (adjusted runline (-2)) (3.11 @ Pinnacle) 5 units

Can you believe this price? Because I'm having troubles believing it. Again adjusting the runline for a better price and the only thing we're risking here (compared to the regular runline) is money back in case of a 2 run Halos win.
I made a mistake going on the Dodgers last night, and it was an honest mistake. Penny seemed strong, but in reality he was due for a major letdown. Ervin, on the other hand, is picking his stuff up.
Similar situation here. Jered Weaver (2-3, 3.62 ERA) is a young stud, who is rapidly turning his season around. His numbers are improving with his every start, and I expect similar to occur after tonight.
Hendrickson, on on the other hand, isn't that reliable in my book. He did have a solid start into the season, but he's regressing slowly, and I think he won't have a pleasurable night facing one of the most versatile and potent lineups in baseball.
Halos have a lineup that can hit lefties, and Hendrickson as I said, is slowly regressing, getting back to his career average. I'd expect one of the best AL teams to knock him around more than just a bit.


Leans:
Tigers (Robertson)
Indians/Reds over 10
Fish (Willis)


Good luck. :cheers: :shake:
 
As you already know, we're both on Jays, glad to see your perception is very similar to mine, but I also wish you best of luck with the rest of your plays, mainly Angels, although my gut's telling me we may see a close game tonight vs Dodgers, but I've also have to note that 3.11 for a runline is crazy high. A value bet, clearly.

:cheers:
 
Like the Angels and the O's but im gonna have to disagree with some of your logic on the Phils/Jays game

Firstly, Moyer has been their best and most consistant pitcher all year. Prior to the last start (in which he gave up 5 runs to Milwaukee, but they still won), Moyer had a string of 7 quality starts to begin the year.

Also, since the Phils picked up Moyer theyre something like 16 and 4 in games hes started.

I dont see how you can characterize the Jays as being 'on the climb' (5-5 last 10, 6-12 on the road) and the Phils as being 'just mediocre' (7-3 last 10, 12-9 at home).

Lastly, Howards not in a huge slump, hes on the DL. And the Phils have done anything but struggle since then as theyve gone 6-2 without him. This is Chase Utleys team. Always has been, always will be.
 
Smoke you're right on Howard's part but I disagree with you on the pitcher's part, Moyer to be precisely. Pretty much every hitter who's spent at least a 3-4 years in AL know all his tricks and especially the Jays who've proved that in the past, collecting some really stand-out numbers vs him. You're also right on the part that Phillies are 6-2 in the games he started so far, but let's not forget that's against NL teams, which is completely different story compared so most of the AL teams, as I've learned from all these years betting on MLB. Jays are a team build mainly on long ball capable hitters and they handle LHP very well, that's the fact. Phillies are playing well lately, even without Howard, but it will be interesting to see for how long. Alot of pressure has been on Burrell and only recently he started to produce, and I bet it's not been easy for him. All I'm saying here is that I see a more than solid value bet on Blue Jays tonight.

:cheers:
 
First of let me start by saying I love feedback, any kind of useful feedback, even if it's going against my pick/reasoning, it can only help us see things more clearly. This is exactly why boards are for.

Smokedawg, I obviously won't even attempt to preach you about your own team, but trust your word on it. You know this team in and out, live there, see them live, and I've seen them twice live this year, and that was via TV, lol.

Just a few things I think you misunderstood me, or I wasn't precise enough.

Smokedawg said:
Firstly, Moyer has been their best and most consistant pitcher all year. Prior to the last start (in which he gave up 5 runs to Milwaukee, but they still won), Moyer had a string of 7 quality starts to begin the year.
Click to expand...

If anyone likes Moyer it's me. I never even tried to imply Moyer was sub par or anything short of excellent. All I said is: I like the fact he's on the mound, because the price will be distorted. To some extent, rightfully, but to THIS extent, I don't think so.
But note I didn't say Moyer was on a downslide or anything. But the fact is, Jays hitters have been KILLING HIM. And I mean KILLING.

Look at this:
Thomas 16 for 45 .356 6HR's
Glaus 14 for 49 .347 4HR's
Wells 12 for 36 .333 2HR's
Rios 6 for 14 .429 1HR
McDonald 5 for 14 .357 1HR
Stairs 9 for 30 .300 2HR's
Hill 4 for 11 .364
Overbay 3 for 7 .429

Overall 83 for 255 .325 17HR's 25BB's 39K's
Click to expand...

We're talking INSANE numbers. And Toronto are hitting lefties better than they hit RHP's.

I also said Moyer is a king in the NL for a reason, as I really don't think he will be as efficient against AL bats. Especially against the ones who have OWNED him.


Smokedawg said:
I dont see how you can characterize the Jays as being 'on the climb' (5-5 last 10, 6-12 on the road) and the Phils as being 'just mediocre' (7-3 last 10, 12-9 at home).
Click to expand...

From what I've seen this year, and as I said this is only my 4th year watching baseball (and I've said it many times so you guys know who you're dealing with :D), I am of course willing to accept my views can be faltered.

However, Phillies lacked to impress me, yet.

Why I said the Jays are climbing...hmm... again, my impression, which I don't think is stretched AT ALL.

5-1 in last 6 games prior to last night's Interleague clash.
Before that they were riding that AWFUL losing streak, so there's obviously only one way to go from there, but frankly, they started hitting the ball a lot better, and produced some healthier numbers. That's why I said they're on the climb.

Smokedawg said:
Lastly, Howards not in a huge slump, hes on the DL. And the Phils have done anything but struggle since then as theyve gone 6-2 without him. This is Chase Utleys team. Always has been, always will be.
Click to expand...

I know he's on the DL. I referred to the games before he went on DL, he produced monster numbers last year and was nothing but lackluster so far.
Didn't know Chase is their main man though, thanks for letting me know (I have a lot to learn).

Anyways, good luck tonight. :shake: :cheers:

Thanks for the feedback.
 
That sucks...i just had a long response all typed out, but i dont feel like doing it again, so ill give you the cliff notes version

- Frank Thomas wont be playing
- Glaus is 2 for 16 in Philly
- Will Stairs play?
- You can throw out career numbers for people with less than 15 Abs vs a pitcher, since in my opinion its not a big enough sample size to draw an accurate conclusion
- That leaves Wells, who can be pitched around in an NL park b/c theres no DH for Moyer to contend with

Also I have concerns about the Jays pitcher who was pulled after only 78 pitches last outing. How will he handle pitching in Philly (very hitter friendly park)? The injuries to the pen (specifically Ryan) coupled with the fact that hes a reliever so he probably will be lucky to go more than 5 would concern me alot.
 
And obvously, Im not trying to attack your position or anything or even change your mind, im just giving you my point of view, which like you said, is what i think these boards are for

:cheers:
 
stats can be angled any way you want them to be. But obviously you can PH Frank Thomas in a scoring situation. Stairs SHOULD play vs. a Lefty since Lind hits sub .150 or something against them. Jays are 5-2 in last 7 so that looks amazing where as 5-5 in last 10 doesnt. lol we can go all day.
 
Believe Baltimore is at best a pass. Baltimore 2-8 last 10 on road. Baltimore recent stats vs lefties are bogus. 1 leftie starter 8 games ago Fossum the sieve who gave up 8 runs. Washington 6-4 last 10 at home. Washington pen avaailable 3.71 to Baltimore 4.93 Guthrie certainly had a great showing against Boston Bascik is nothing much but in 15 starts his team was 8-7 with 6 stinkers by him, 3 fine outings and 6 reasonable outings. Last 3 minor starts2 good one stinker. Pencil him for 4 to 5 innings and 2 runs. Baltimore got 7 innings and 3 runs from their starter yesterday and in the bottom of the ninth it was 5-4 bases loaded and the Washington batter hit the ball solidly but directly at someone. Just no value betting Baltimore as a road fav. GL
 
Smokedawg, good discussion there. ReNew already commented some of the points and that's what I'm thinking as well, I'm actually counting on Thomas to play, and Stairs as well.
I agree with your "at least 15 AB" comment but you have guys here with 14 and hitting .429, so it's not like I gave you a sample of three at bats :D.

Marcum, as I said, I'm not a fan of. And heck, if he was a decent, dependable pitcher in both home and road splits and Toronto were mashing lefties as a machine, they would be favs now.

You see where I'm coming from, everything you said is affected in the line. Philly solid in last 10 (7-3), Moyer experienced veteran, Marcum on the other hand a liability (even though a closer look would indicate he actually has excellent K to BB ratio (29:9), and you have a situation when the opposing lineup hasn't seen him AT ALL.

Moyer, on the other hand, was seen and knocked around by the Jays.

All I'm saying is, look at the price. If this was closer to a pick 'em, with Moyer a slight fav, I would pass.
But what I'm saying here is NOT affected in the line if you ask me. How are Jays lineup v Moyer numbers affecting the line when Philly are considerable favs? How is Toronto-more-successful-v-left-handed-pitching factor influencing the line? Moyer is obviously good...

But I feel his presence alone is affecting the price too much. You can't deny the classic argument of AL vs NL team, and that AL team at plus money isn't the worst pick in the world.


ReNew, GL tonight buddy. :shake: :cheers:


Tuck, I obviously won't go into details as I feel Sparky has presented the play well, and I tend to agree. Btw, let me ask you something, what do you think is Washington's true face? Their first few weeks into the season when they got hammered, or now when they stole a few games against the Braves, won a thriller against the Fish with Zimmerman's bottom 9th grand slam after an 2 hour delay?

I think it's somewhere in between, which makes their record legit. They have the NL's worst record, and playing against the Orioles, who I cannot say are on an upswing, even though I would like to, but are surely not a disastrous ballclub, hanging around .500 in a tough division with actually considerable talent on the roster.
Furthermore, Guthrie has been solid in recent starts (we're talking Red Sox here), and I'm thinking if he gets knocked around it won't be against NL bottom feeders. Maybe I'm wrong. I know I'm laying chalk, I was actually considering the runline for lesser stake, but it didn't meet my demands :D, as I had hoped for 2.30 or more. Have to say I'm totally unfamiliar with Bascik and obviously the O's have the pitching advantage here.
So yes, I will lay some significant road chalk, and it may not be the best to lay it with the Orioles, but as I said, I'm a situational capper and if I see something I like, I jump on it. I may be wrong, there's no denying that.

Good luck tonight. :shake: :cheers:
 
Ok this is insane. I can't be unhappy because I do unload mostly on SINGLES, which means I made profit already tonight. But I also play doubles, and I noticed today at my local book there was an offer 2.35 Baltimore RL, which I thought was a bit too high, and took it combined with Toronto RL (Alternate Runline @ 3.25), took it in a double for a JUICY payout...

Baltimore scores 2 in the 11th inning, had chances to score more, but ok, even this was a miracle. Then of course the Nationals have to screw it up and score that 1 run. And the guy who batted it in had like 10 AB this year batting .100.

JUST ONE MORE OUT. Same thing, and I mean the SAME thing happened with Detroit runline, also in a double (with Cincinnati over 10). Just the feeling of getting robbed like that.

Btw, I still had trauma from that Nats win last week when Zimmerman grand slammed them in bottom 9th after a 2 hour rain delay. Yep, I had the Fish :D.



Insane. But this day will still be great if the Angels win by at least 3. Come on Halos. :cheers:
 
2-0 so far, 3rd looking good too.

im just curious. I watched this documentary called "land of the falling lakes" and looked up more about it and saw it was in Croatia filmed at the Plitvice Lakes National Park. Ever been? It looks amazing, definitely wouldn't mind going there later in my life.
 
he walked Lieberthal and we have 2 runners on, 2 outs, and a question of the night: Will I get fucked in the 9th inning for the THIRD straight time tonight in EXACTLY the same way?



I hope not.


Furcal...brrrrr...
 
phew...close one...

6-2.

And all my listed leans went through :D I wish they didn't and Baltimore won by 2 though :D but anyways. Solid night. :cheers:
 
Jesus Christ I just added it up, more than 25 units of profit tonight. :eek:

And would've been +32 units had Baltimore won by 2, and 41 units if Detroit did the same.

:eek:

The beer is on me. :cheers:
 
Thanks :shake:


Well first of I only post singles. Secondly I don't post picks without writeups and it's a hassle to write up ALL my plays, so I don't. I do write previews and post all my MAIN plays, meaning all others are taken with lesser stakes mostly. Rarely happens that I take a play for 5,6 or more units and it's not listed here.

:shake:
 
:smiley_abcs::4_17_208:Nice DAY ....GOT ANY MORE GOOD STUFF FOR 2MORROW ?
 
well when youre wrong, youre wrong...i went down hard there

utterly dissappointed in the phils and moyer, you gotta be able to get more than 2 off a converted reliever! but good call...they ripped into moyer, it was like he was throwing BP

congrats!
 
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