Satyr
Paster of Muppets
Dodgers (Penny) (-1,5) (2.60 @ Pinnacle) 10 units
I know, I know. Not the wisest move to take the runline in a game which is supposed to be your classic pitcher's duel. I have my reasons though. The estimated value on the runline here is higher than it would usually be, so the fact this one will be dominated by pitchers is already in the price tag, it's not like I'm getting ripped or anything, the bookies purposely set the price for the RL higher than usual in this case.
As I said, I have my reasons. The price for the runline is set this way mostly because of Ian Snell (1-1, 1.80 ERA) who has been lights out. I believe Ian Snell won't have a pleasant evening. First of, it's a road game, and even though Snell doesn't have that typical home-road disparity when it comes to bringing his A game, the Dodgers batting lineup are more confident at home.
They're blazing right now and it's not only offense, their fielding has been phenomenal of late, bullpen, starting pitching, they're clicking, firing on all cylinders.
Why fading the hot team then? Snell has been shelled before against these guys (1-1, 18 IP, 7.50 ERA vs LAD), and even though everyone expects Pittsburgh to bounce back here I think they get rocked once more before settling in.
Brad Penny on the mound, trouble ahead for the opposition. He's been 3-0, 0.89 ERA this season. Even though I expect these numbers to even themselves out as time progresses, I wouldn't expect it to be today, even though Bay has hit him well, Nady only has limited experience against him, while on the other side, we have a long lineup just waiting to give trouble to Snell. Juan Pierre, Jeff Kent, Andre Ethier, these guys have all bean great. Look for that to continue. I'm thinking Snell gets in trouble and tries to get out of it by forcing strikeouts, that's how he got flamed by these guys last season. He doesn't give much usually, but when he does he tends to lose his grip.
I might be going out on a limb a bit, some would say this isn't the best spot for the Dodgers, but I can't help it, I love it. I love the fact they "aren't supposed to blast them again", how "Penny should even out these numbers", and even though this is a rather logical, obvious, square pick, there's not much love for it around, mostly for the mentioned reasons.
I however, am going in with maximum stake, 10 units to win 16 sounds mighty fine to me.
Boston - NYY over 10 (1.82 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
Ok, we have a rather inexperienced pitcher starting for the Yanks (Karstens) and Beckett for the Red Sox. Beckett is a typical home pitcher and is usually dominant at home, but against NYY he has been horrid, in 20 innings of work he is 2-2, 9.45 ERA. He has been fantastic so far this year, allowing only .159 (10-for-63) batting average and striking out 18 batters in 18 innings.
But here come the Yanks, featuring Giambi, Cano, Damon, guys he doesn't like to face, and of course A-Rod, who has already launched more homers this season than a few other teams put together.
Add to that that both of these lineups qualify among the mightiest in baseball, they combined for an over last night but I'm liking another slugfest here.
The Red Sox are on a roll but I wouldn't dare to choose who wins here. Yanks is my, all so insignificant call, all I care for here is the over really.
Tigers - White Sox over 9 (2.02 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
Another huge clash. Again, both teams have scoring potential, yesterday's game finished 5-4, I'm thinking both score more this time. They're slowly getting into the groove offensively and both pitchers here are hittable, plus their relievers aren't blazing right now, even though White Sox closers have been focused lately, Tigers have had some trouble.
Contreras has had a lot of trouble this year, boasting 6.00 ERA despite his still stellar status, Cuban veteran hopes to continue his domination over the Tigers (106.2 IP, 8-4, 3.46 ERA), Nate Robertson has a 4-6, 5.08 ERA against the White Sox, don't even bother picking a winner here, just take the over, sit back and relax. Small stakes though, don't want to force the issue, as this pick can fall in the "iffy" category as well, considering both pitchers CAN have a good game, and these hitters still lack consistency. However, I believe it goes over, thinking 8-6 Tigers.
That's it for now. GL guys. :cheers:
I know, I know. Not the wisest move to take the runline in a game which is supposed to be your classic pitcher's duel. I have my reasons though. The estimated value on the runline here is higher than it would usually be, so the fact this one will be dominated by pitchers is already in the price tag, it's not like I'm getting ripped or anything, the bookies purposely set the price for the RL higher than usual in this case.
As I said, I have my reasons. The price for the runline is set this way mostly because of Ian Snell (1-1, 1.80 ERA) who has been lights out. I believe Ian Snell won't have a pleasant evening. First of, it's a road game, and even though Snell doesn't have that typical home-road disparity when it comes to bringing his A game, the Dodgers batting lineup are more confident at home.
They're blazing right now and it's not only offense, their fielding has been phenomenal of late, bullpen, starting pitching, they're clicking, firing on all cylinders.
Why fading the hot team then? Snell has been shelled before against these guys (1-1, 18 IP, 7.50 ERA vs LAD), and even though everyone expects Pittsburgh to bounce back here I think they get rocked once more before settling in.
Brad Penny on the mound, trouble ahead for the opposition. He's been 3-0, 0.89 ERA this season. Even though I expect these numbers to even themselves out as time progresses, I wouldn't expect it to be today, even though Bay has hit him well, Nady only has limited experience against him, while on the other side, we have a long lineup just waiting to give trouble to Snell. Juan Pierre, Jeff Kent, Andre Ethier, these guys have all bean great. Look for that to continue. I'm thinking Snell gets in trouble and tries to get out of it by forcing strikeouts, that's how he got flamed by these guys last season. He doesn't give much usually, but when he does he tends to lose his grip.
I might be going out on a limb a bit, some would say this isn't the best spot for the Dodgers, but I can't help it, I love it. I love the fact they "aren't supposed to blast them again", how "Penny should even out these numbers", and even though this is a rather logical, obvious, square pick, there's not much love for it around, mostly for the mentioned reasons.
I however, am going in with maximum stake, 10 units to win 16 sounds mighty fine to me.
Boston - NYY over 10 (1.82 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
Ok, we have a rather inexperienced pitcher starting for the Yanks (Karstens) and Beckett for the Red Sox. Beckett is a typical home pitcher and is usually dominant at home, but against NYY he has been horrid, in 20 innings of work he is 2-2, 9.45 ERA. He has been fantastic so far this year, allowing only .159 (10-for-63) batting average and striking out 18 batters in 18 innings.
But here come the Yanks, featuring Giambi, Cano, Damon, guys he doesn't like to face, and of course A-Rod, who has already launched more homers this season than a few other teams put together.
Add to that that both of these lineups qualify among the mightiest in baseball, they combined for an over last night but I'm liking another slugfest here.
The Red Sox are on a roll but I wouldn't dare to choose who wins here. Yanks is my, all so insignificant call, all I care for here is the over really.
Tigers - White Sox over 9 (2.02 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
Another huge clash. Again, both teams have scoring potential, yesterday's game finished 5-4, I'm thinking both score more this time. They're slowly getting into the groove offensively and both pitchers here are hittable, plus their relievers aren't blazing right now, even though White Sox closers have been focused lately, Tigers have had some trouble.
Contreras has had a lot of trouble this year, boasting 6.00 ERA despite his still stellar status, Cuban veteran hopes to continue his domination over the Tigers (106.2 IP, 8-4, 3.46 ERA), Nate Robertson has a 4-6, 5.08 ERA against the White Sox, don't even bother picking a winner here, just take the over, sit back and relax. Small stakes though, don't want to force the issue, as this pick can fall in the "iffy" category as well, considering both pitchers CAN have a good game, and these hitters still lack consistency. However, I believe it goes over, thinking 8-6 Tigers.
That's it for now. GL guys. :cheers:
illow: :cheers:
