Wiretowire
Pretty much a regular
YTD +118.7
+2 1/2 parlays yesterday lost all = -18
Bought run total parlays won all = +53.4
Blood and I had an interesting discussion yesterday. He asked me what percentage I put on the starting pitchers when I cap a game. I told him I don't put a % on starters but for sides and totals it's like a door to a room. The starters will tell me whether to walk away or open the door and look inside. I'll use the Detroit game for as an example.
The first thing I look at is each starter. Boston Webster era 11.74. Detroit Scherzer era 1.80 last 3 starts. 11.74 and 3.08 overall. That is obviously a big enough difference for me to go in and look closer. The difference is not the only factor though for me to make a decision.
Next, who is at home? Detroit. That is a big factor for me.
Record on the road for Boston 21-16 while the record at home for Detroit is 24-12. Nothing stands out big there.
Which is the hotter team in their last 5-10 games? That's even between these two with noone streaking.
Who has won the most this year head to head? Also even at 1-1 as this is only the 3rd time they have played this year. Do I look at last year? Of course not. Last year might as well be 20 years ago as the players are not the same and the pitchers are certainly not the same or if everyone is the same are they playing the exact same way this year as last? I think this is a critical mistake people make comparing last year to this year. Are the Yankees the same? The Dodgers? MLW? Not even close to last year so why think about how they did last year compared to this year?
Any ump info? Barrett favors the home team 9-6. That helps Detroit. Goes heavy under 10-5 with a 7.27 average runs per game and that helps both pitchers but probably will help the seasoned vet Hudson more in the long run.
Sherzer 10-0 and 11-3 when he starts. Webster 0-1 and 0-2 when he starts. Hudson averages 6.8 innings when he starts and Webster averages 3.6 innings when he starts. That's also an important stat for me. Hudson 64 hits in 96 innings and Webster 11 hits in 7 innings on the season.
Bullpens 3.48 to 3.51 is even but in the last 3 games Boston has a 3.27 to 5.46 advantage.
Boston hitting versus right hander .273 Detroit versus right hander .276. Even
Overview: Webster would have to have the game of his life and Scherzer can just show up and do his usual workmanlike job to get the win.
Finally, make the bet Detroit ML -180 and no I could not care less what the odds are if I have made up my mind. In fact, if I like a team enough to bet it ML I would normally at this point look at Detroit +2 1/2 runs and combine it with other +2 1/2 sides in parlays but today the only other side I like is Atlanta so since I need at least three +2 1/2 game bets to offset the odds in a parlay I will pass the +2 1/2 run parlays for today. Note: if I really love all my ML bets and therefore all my +2 1/2 run parlays then I will round robin the damn things and really knock the shit out of the books. And quit saying you can't get +2 1/2 run parlays from your book. Find a damn book that will let you and 5dimes is that book so don't tell me there isn't one out there.
Final note, I never said simply taking a team +2 1/2 runs will win. You have to cap the shit out of the game and if you really like a side and ONLY if you really like a side then AND ONLY then buy the +2 1/2 runs and parlay it.
To pick totals it is slightly different but the basic concept is the same. For totals I also start with the starters era's but then I look at each starters last 2-3 starts and runs they allowed. If they are 4 runs or more I will look over and if they are 2 runs or less I will look under. Unlike sides I do look at the the total number before I even begin to look at the stats. My favorite over number is 8 or less as I always buy a run off to 7. My favorite under number is 9 or higher as I always buy a run on to 10. Once you get used to looking at totals you can quickly see whether a game should go under or over the total set for that game. You also need to see what the average team scoring is for the last 4 games or so and does it match your over/under prediction. (If one guy is high and the other low then look at the side and pass the total. All things must agree to bet a total.) Batting average against starter also should be considered. By the way, I look at ump stats last after I have made up my mind whether to go over or under the total (if they are available). I never just take a game over or under based on the ump stats. I will let the ump stats tell me whether to load up on a game but I will never change a bet because of ump stats. I think that is a critical mistake people make but many swear by ump stats alone. I disagree but each to his own because in the end it's your money you are betting.
Once you decide on a total you really like then buy a run on for unders and off for overs. You can bet bought run odds as single bets but parlaying can be fun as well. Yes, Virginia -180 or even -200 can be bet as a side despite what the idiots who say never bet a baseball game over -130. If you have paid attention to any of my past years you know I live in the highest chalk district ever known to bettors and I end up ahead year after year. I know, you can't find anyone to let you buy runs or parlay bought run games. It's that 5dimes thing again and telling me you can't will just piss me off and cost you money in the long run.
I know I didn't go into great detail about totals but I will answer questions if you have them. But please do me a favor and if you think I'm completely full of shit with all this then no problem. I'm just throwing it out to you all because Bloodhound said this might help someone in their capping. Personally I think it will just confuse the shit out of most people.
No parlays all sides (single bets).
Sides: 5 units each
Colo/Wash over 6 1/2 -180
TB/NYY over 7 -180
Balt/Toronto under 11 -160
Houston/Cubs under 11 -160
Mia/SF over 6 1/2 -170
Atlanta ML -150 (Just a guess but the starters numbers and being on the road makes me put the line here.)
Detroit ML -180 (No, I am not buying runs on this one.)
Minn/Cleveland over 7 -180
LA/SD over 6 -170
Texas/St Louis over 7 -160
Oakland/Seattle over 6 -180
GL
+2 1/2 parlays yesterday lost all = -18
Bought run total parlays won all = +53.4
Blood and I had an interesting discussion yesterday. He asked me what percentage I put on the starting pitchers when I cap a game. I told him I don't put a % on starters but for sides and totals it's like a door to a room. The starters will tell me whether to walk away or open the door and look inside. I'll use the Detroit game for as an example.
The first thing I look at is each starter. Boston Webster era 11.74. Detroit Scherzer era 1.80 last 3 starts. 11.74 and 3.08 overall. That is obviously a big enough difference for me to go in and look closer. The difference is not the only factor though for me to make a decision.
Next, who is at home? Detroit. That is a big factor for me.
Record on the road for Boston 21-16 while the record at home for Detroit is 24-12. Nothing stands out big there.
Which is the hotter team in their last 5-10 games? That's even between these two with noone streaking.
Who has won the most this year head to head? Also even at 1-1 as this is only the 3rd time they have played this year. Do I look at last year? Of course not. Last year might as well be 20 years ago as the players are not the same and the pitchers are certainly not the same or if everyone is the same are they playing the exact same way this year as last? I think this is a critical mistake people make comparing last year to this year. Are the Yankees the same? The Dodgers? MLW? Not even close to last year so why think about how they did last year compared to this year?
Any ump info? Barrett favors the home team 9-6. That helps Detroit. Goes heavy under 10-5 with a 7.27 average runs per game and that helps both pitchers but probably will help the seasoned vet Hudson more in the long run.
Sherzer 10-0 and 11-3 when he starts. Webster 0-1 and 0-2 when he starts. Hudson averages 6.8 innings when he starts and Webster averages 3.6 innings when he starts. That's also an important stat for me. Hudson 64 hits in 96 innings and Webster 11 hits in 7 innings on the season.
Bullpens 3.48 to 3.51 is even but in the last 3 games Boston has a 3.27 to 5.46 advantage.
Boston hitting versus right hander .273 Detroit versus right hander .276. Even
Overview: Webster would have to have the game of his life and Scherzer can just show up and do his usual workmanlike job to get the win.
Finally, make the bet Detroit ML -180 and no I could not care less what the odds are if I have made up my mind. In fact, if I like a team enough to bet it ML I would normally at this point look at Detroit +2 1/2 runs and combine it with other +2 1/2 sides in parlays but today the only other side I like is Atlanta so since I need at least three +2 1/2 game bets to offset the odds in a parlay I will pass the +2 1/2 run parlays for today. Note: if I really love all my ML bets and therefore all my +2 1/2 run parlays then I will round robin the damn things and really knock the shit out of the books. And quit saying you can't get +2 1/2 run parlays from your book. Find a damn book that will let you and 5dimes is that book so don't tell me there isn't one out there.
Final note, I never said simply taking a team +2 1/2 runs will win. You have to cap the shit out of the game and if you really like a side and ONLY if you really like a side then AND ONLY then buy the +2 1/2 runs and parlay it.
To pick totals it is slightly different but the basic concept is the same. For totals I also start with the starters era's but then I look at each starters last 2-3 starts and runs they allowed. If they are 4 runs or more I will look over and if they are 2 runs or less I will look under. Unlike sides I do look at the the total number before I even begin to look at the stats. My favorite over number is 8 or less as I always buy a run off to 7. My favorite under number is 9 or higher as I always buy a run on to 10. Once you get used to looking at totals you can quickly see whether a game should go under or over the total set for that game. You also need to see what the average team scoring is for the last 4 games or so and does it match your over/under prediction. (If one guy is high and the other low then look at the side and pass the total. All things must agree to bet a total.) Batting average against starter also should be considered. By the way, I look at ump stats last after I have made up my mind whether to go over or under the total (if they are available). I never just take a game over or under based on the ump stats. I will let the ump stats tell me whether to load up on a game but I will never change a bet because of ump stats. I think that is a critical mistake people make but many swear by ump stats alone. I disagree but each to his own because in the end it's your money you are betting.
Once you decide on a total you really like then buy a run on for unders and off for overs. You can bet bought run odds as single bets but parlaying can be fun as well. Yes, Virginia -180 or even -200 can be bet as a side despite what the idiots who say never bet a baseball game over -130. If you have paid attention to any of my past years you know I live in the highest chalk district ever known to bettors and I end up ahead year after year. I know, you can't find anyone to let you buy runs or parlay bought run games. It's that 5dimes thing again and telling me you can't will just piss me off and cost you money in the long run.
I know I didn't go into great detail about totals but I will answer questions if you have them. But please do me a favor and if you think I'm completely full of shit with all this then no problem. I'm just throwing it out to you all because Bloodhound said this might help someone in their capping. Personally I think it will just confuse the shit out of most people.
No parlays all sides (single bets).
Sides: 5 units each
Colo/Wash over 6 1/2 -180
TB/NYY over 7 -180
Balt/Toronto under 11 -160
Houston/Cubs under 11 -160
Mia/SF over 6 1/2 -170
Atlanta ML -150 (Just a guess but the starters numbers and being on the road makes me put the line here.)
Detroit ML -180 (No, I am not buying runs on this one.)
Minn/Cleveland over 7 -180
LA/SD over 6 -170
Texas/St Louis over 7 -160
Oakland/Seattle over 6 -180
GL
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